Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
Sam Darnold Under 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Darnold has some ability to move in the pocket but he’s not a particularly mobile quarterback and this prop gives him too much credit as an athlete. His career average is less than one yard below this line but that is skewed by a handful of big performances. In 41 career games, he has been held under 11.5 rushing yards 29 times.
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Jalen Hurts Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Last week, the Eagles tipped their hand at what they’ll be doing once they fall behind. They got mauled by the Cowboys and completely abandoned the run. Hurts tallied nine carries but their backs earned just three rush attempts. Had it not been for Hurts’ carries, the Eagles would have set the record for the fewest rush attempts in a game. It’s clear that Nick Sirianni is going to let his quarterback attempt to be a one-man offense instead of toiling away the game while running from behind. In a shootout with the Chiefs, expect more of the same from Hurts, who is completing more of his passes for more yards per throw than he did last year.
Jalen Hurts Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The rushing prop should be easy for him to surpass. He’s started and finished six games in the NFL and has only failed to top 52.5 yards on the ground once. In those games, he’s averaged nearly 70 rushing yards. With more dropbacks should also come more scrambles, further increasing the odds that he posts a big day on the ground. Hurts over bets are buoyed by the potential volume of his matchup with the Chiefs but last week showed us that he should have a floor of hitting one of these props every week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
St. Brown has yet to top 24.5 yards in three games and after running 45 routes in Week 1, he’s run fewer routes in every game. The rookie receiver totaled just 14 routes last week. He ran a route on 39 percent of Jared Goff‘s dropbacks and was targeted once. St. Brown will have to show that he’s able to command a meaningful part of the offense before we stop betting the under.
Nyheim Hines Over 3.5 Receptions (+135)
I’ll be firing this exact same bet every week until PointsBet chooses to change their numbers on Hines. If the analysis looks familiar, it is. In three losses with Carson Wentz under center, Hines has seen 16 targets, 12 of which he’s been able to reel in. Last year, he averaged 3.9 receptions per game. PointsBet has the Colts as 1.5-point dogs and they just lost a handful of key players including All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. They will once again be forced to throw the ball throughout the game, and that means plenty of targets for Hines.
Last Week: 3-2, +1 units
Season: 9-6, +2.6 units