Damian Lillard's pointed calls for the Portland Trail Blazers to make significant roster changes this summer went unanswered. His team enters 2021-22 with last season's same core in place and an unchanged starting lineup. Portland's four offseason additions come mostly on the margins, with Larry Nance Jr. the only one among them guaranteed to make a meaningful impact.
But just because the Blazers brought the band back together doesn't mean they'll be playing the same music. Chauncey Billups promises the sense of accountability and attention to detail that was sorely missing under Terry Stotts, and his strategic and stylistic approaches on both sides of the ball better align with modern tenets of NBA basketball. Portland's bench basically represents a clean slate, too.
As the revamped Blazers' exhibition debut looms on October 4th, let's dig into four lingering questions about Billups' lineups and playing rotation.
Would Portland be better off with Norman Powell playing sixth man?
This prompt was a non-starter before the Blazers traded for Nance, filling the biggest hole on their roster with a versatile, cagey veteran who's a perfect fit for how Billups wants to play on both sides of the ball. To be clear, there's still no realistic chance Powell cedes his starting spot. Both Billups and Neil Olshey have championed Portland's three-guard lineup of late, and Powell made clear that the confidence the Blazers' brain trust has in him was a driving force behind his decision to re-sign in free agency.
It's just not worth rocking the boat by moving Powell to the bench, especially given the success Portland's incumbent starting five enjoyed last season. That group posted a +14.2 net rating in 2020-21, per Cleaning the Glass, and was even more dominant in the playoffs despite the Blazers' disappointing six-game loss to the short-handed Denver Nuggets.
Still, a lineup of Lillard, McCollum, Robert Covington, Nance and Jusuf Nurkic really might represent Portland's best blend of offensive punch and defensive mettle. There's even a case to be made the Blazers' ideal use of resources would be moving McCollum to the bench in favor of Nance, letting the former captain second units before finishing games alongside Lillard and whatever three-man combination of Powell, Covington, Nance and Nurkic that Billups deems most appropriate.
Once again: Portland's starters are set in stone. But against elite competition, especially under the postseason pressure cooker, don't be surprised if the Blazers are at their best with Covington, Nance or even Nassir Little manning the three and four next to Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic.
Does Billups plan to go small every night?
Bringing in Nance doesn't just give Billups the opportunity to go bigger when lineups featuring his three-guard trio prove untenable defensively. More significant is the opposite option his presence provides.
It doesn't get much better than a small-ball frontcourt of Covington and Nance, at least for teams that don't have the luxury of slotting the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard at nominal power forward or center. They're two of the most disruptive off-ball defenders in the league, with keen anticipation and timing supplemented by outstanding positional length. Covington leaves more to be desired as a switch defender at the point of attack than his reputation suggests, but isn't a complete turnstile. He's a threat effecting ball handlers from behind even after he's initially beaten off the bounce.
But just because the addition of Nance—not to mention Little's potential breakout—affords Billups the luxury of going small at a moment's notice doesn't mean it'll be a planned part of nightly rotations. Cody Zeller didn't sign with Portland to sit on the bench, and downsizing every game would only leave so many minutes for him behind Nurkic. The effectiveness of the Blazers' small-ball lineups isn't a sure thing, either. Switching across five positions with Lillard, McCollum and Powell on the floor will only be tenable against certain teams.
Little is the wild card here. If he makes good on the promise prompted by his diligent offseason training and early performance in training camp, Portland would suddenly possess three quality, two-way forwards with wingspans over seven feet. It would be much easier to account for the defensive deficiencies of Lillard and McCollum if Little proves worthy of taking Powell's spot in small-ball lineups.
Until that comes to pass, though, expect Billups to go small situationally, against specific opponents—like the Brooklyn Nets and new-look Los Angeles Lakers—and during instances of time and score.
Is the closing five set in stone?
Crunch time is Dame time, and McCollum's ability to hit tough shots and space the floor makes him a cinch for the Blazers' closing five. But beyond its star guards, Portland shouldn't guarantee anyone on the roster court time as a game hangs in the balance.
There will be many times when the Blazers need the firepower of their three-guard lineup, and others when playing Powell next to Lillard and McCollum in the clutch doesn't leave them imminently exploitable on defense. Nance will simply outplay Covington some nights, taking the latter's assumed place in closing lineups, while they'll finish other games on the floor together. Down multiple possessions, Portland could even turn to Tony Snell in crunch time to maximize shooting without completely sacrificing size. Little's play is also a swing factor here, in small lineups or otherwise.
Nurkic no doubt believes he's earned the right play every second in the clutch; Billups' belief in his game suggests he might agree. But the magnifying glass on close games means there will inevitably be times when the Blazers are better off with him on the bench.
Nurkic will obviously be a crunch-time staple against the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers, needed to bang with Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. His size could be similarly valuable against a Lakers frontcourt of James and Anthony Davis depending on the tenor of the game. Billups' late-game plans against run-of-the-mill teams without a court-bending superstar or quality stretch five will definitely include Nurkic.
The nature of NBA basketball in 2021 assures all but the league's truly elite traditional big men will fall victim to contextual benchings in crunch-time, though. Nurkic, even if his career campaign really does come to pass, won't be immune from that reality.
Who's the odd man out?
Nine rotation spots are spoken for—by the starting five, Nance, Anfernee Simons, Zeller and Little. Expect an overwhelming majority of Portland's lineups to be comprised of those players only.
Olshey's Media Day talk about this team being the Blazers' “deepest of the Lillard era,” though, sounds much less like a salesman's empty rhetoric than it did in years past. Snell and Ben McLemore are over-stretched for playoff basketball, but fully equipped to be a team's tenth man during the regular season. The problem for both is that they're fighting for the same spot.
The bet here is that Snell opens the season ahead of McLemore in the rotational pecking order. He's a better standstill shooter and overall defender than McLemore, with superior size. Neither adds anything much or more than the other off the bounce or in transition. McLemore is a more versatile three-point shooter than Snell, with a quicker trigger and capable of letting fly from multiple launch points.
Billups might toggle between Snell and McLemore as tenth man depending on the game, or could even split the scant minutes allotted for that slot among them. But against most teams and especially if forced into action come playoff time, expect Snell to hear his name called by Billups first.
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