College football picks against the spread Week 13: Ohio State vs. Michigan, Egg Bowl prediction

 8 days ago

It’s time for the Week 13 edition of college football picks against the spread. As our weekly series in this wild 2021 college football season draws to a close before bowl season, bettors are gaining more of an edge moving forward with more information to help determine the spread for every college football game.

For our breakdown of that game and the other best college football picks for Week 13, continue reading — and see all our bets for the top 25, with game lines courtesy of BetMGM .

Related: College football games today – TV schedule, daily fantasy picks, and best bets

College football picks against the spread: Lines for top-25 games

Game Time (ET) TV
(13) Ole Miss [+1] @ (25) Mississippi State Nov. 25, 7:30 PM ESPN
Boise State @ (19) San Diego State [+2.5] Nov. 26, 12 PM CBS
(17) Iowa [+3.5] @ Nebraska Nov. 26, 1:30 PM Big Ten Network
(5) Cincinnati [-14] @ East Carolina Nov. 26, 3:30 PM ABC
Colorado @ (23) Utah [-23.5] Nov. 26, 4:00 PM FOX
North Carolina @ (20) NC State [-6.5] Nov. 26, 7:00 PM ESPN
(1) Georgia [-35.5] @ Georgia Tech Nov. 27, 12:00 PM ABC
(4) Ohio State [-8] @ Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
(10) Wake Forest [-4.5] @ Boston College 12:00 PM ESPN2
Texas Tech @ (11) Baylor [-14.5] 12:00 PM Fox Sports 1
(24) Houston [ -32.5 ] @ UConn 12:00 PM CBS Sports Network
(22) UTSA [-11.5] @ North Texas 2:00 PM ESPN+
(2) Alabama [-19.5] @ Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
Oregon State @ (3) Oregon [-7] 3:30 PM ESPN
Penn State [+1.5] @ (7) Michigan State 3:30 PM ABC
(15) Wisconsin [-6.5] @ Minnesota 4:00 PM
(16) Texas A&M [-6] @ LSU 7:00 PM ESPN
(13) Oklahoma @ (9) Oklahoma State [-4] 7:30 PM ABC
(18) Pittsburgh [-10.5] @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ACC Network
(8) Notre Dame [-17.5] @ Stanford 8:00 PM NBC
(14) BYU [-7] @ USC 10:30 PM ESPN

Let’s examine the top Week 13 college football picks, highlighting specific matchups that will decide the outcomes.

College football picks this weekend: Best Week 13 bets for Top 25 matchups

Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss (+1) top Mike Leach in the Egg Bowl
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

This is what everyone wanted for the Egg Bowl when Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach were hired. The Ole Miss Rebels are a win away from securing a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game and even have an outside shot at the College Football Playoffs . While the stakes aren’t quite as high for Mississippi State, Leach and the Bulldogs would love nothing more than ruining the Rebels’ dreams.

Mississippi State enters with home-field advantage and that’s a crucial factor in this matchup. Davis Wade Stadium is going to be an absurd, ear-ringing environment on Thanksgiving. Fans also have reason to be confident given the Bulldogs are 7-4 this season, including victories over Kentucky, Texas A&M and Auburn. Also Read:

Best college football stadiums: Ranking the NCAA gridiron’s premier venues in 2021

But the third-best passing attack in college football (390.2 yards per game, 35 touchdowns) is going to be tested. Mississippi’s defense held opponents to a 55.86% completion rate in the last three games with the sixth-lowest average passer rating (94.3) allowed during that stretch.

Things will be slightly easier for future NFL quarterback and Matt Corral and this Rebels offense. Ole Miss averages the fifth-most total yards (517.5) per game and can find plenty of success through the air and on the ground. But running the football will be tough against a Bulldogs’ defense allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards (102.5) per contest. Ultimately, the edge goes to the better quarterback (Corral) and coach (Kiffin) in a close game.

  • College Football picks Week 13: Ole Miss 34, Mississippi State 31

San Diego State (+2.5) takes down Boise State
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise to see the San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) as underdogs. Boise State is a more nationally-recognized football program and wins over Fresno State (40-14) and BYU (26-17) shows what this team is capable of. But the Aztecs are the more consistent team in 2021.

The Broncos’ offense isn’t what it used to be. Entering Week 13, Boise State ranks 95th in rushing (126.7 yards per game), 32nd in passing (263.6 ypg), 45th in scoring (30.4 ppg) and its third-down efficiency has dropped in recent weeks. The ground game isn’t an option against San Diego State (77.5 ypg allowed), its secondary has the 14th-lowest average passer rating allowed (114.4) and it holds opponents to a 30.49% third-down conversion rate. On top of all that, punter Matt Araiza will make sure Boise State’s offense has bad field position. Also Read:
Top 25 College Football Rankings: Ohio State climbs, Oregon and Michigan State crash

Meanwhile, opponents can move the ball against the Broncos. Boise State is allowing 162.3 rushing yards per game this year and ranks 73rd in third-down conversion rate allowed (40.13%). This defense is dependent on takeaways (9th in the country, 2.1 per game) and the Aztecs rarely cough up the football. Expect a low-scoring duel, but San Diego State’s crowd and its opportunity to play in a huge bowl game provide the extra edge.

  • College Football picks Week 13: San Diego State 24, Boise State 23

Ohio State (-8) ends Jim Harbaugh’s playoff hopes
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

This is Jim Harbaugh’s moment. The Michigan Wolverines head coach found himself near the proverbial hot seat entering the year, but a lot has changed. Michigan’s mistakes prevented it from beating Michigan State, but this team has played outstanding football outside of that date. Naturally, the best rivalry game in college football carries even more impact this year. Also Read:
10 highest-paid college football coaches (and are they worth it?)

Michigan’s defense is among the best in the nation statistically. Heading into Saturday’s matchup, the Wolverines allow just 178.4 passing yards per game (8th), have a strong 7.92% sack rate on pass attempts (34th) and they allow just 3.6 yards per attempt. All of that has led to this 10-1 record, but we have some doubts.

This same defense allowed 199 rushing yards to Michigan State, the only top-50 scoring offense they’ve faced in 2021. The success against the pass, partially the result of a secondary facing eight opponents that rank outside the top-90 teams in average passer rating.

C.J. Stroud, the leader in the Heisman Trophy race , is playing at an absurd level right now. It’s a credit to his talent, an offensive line with the sixth-best sack rate allowed (3.16%) and a receiving trio that should be starting on the NFL. There’s just too much firepower for Michigan to stop and we still haven’t seen Harbaugh-led teams come through in big games.

  • College Football picks Week 13: Ohio State 35, Michigan 24

Crimson Tide (-19.5) roll over Auburn in Iron Bowl blowout
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

This definitely isn’t shaping up to be an unforgettable Iron Bowl. While these two rivals have provided some college football classics in recent years, no one is expecting that in 2021. One big reason why, this is the first time since 2018 that only Alabama is ranked. Also Read:
Heisman Watch 2021: Latest Heisman Trophy odds, C.J. Stroud vs. Bryce Young

Things looked promising for Auburn at the end of October. Coming off wins against No. 17 Arkansas and No. 10 Ole Miss, the Tigers were right in the middle of top-25 college football rankings . It’s been ugly ever since. Following a 20-3 loss to Texas A&M, a game where Auburn’s offense didn’t show up, the Tigers saw a 28-3 lead against Mississippi State turn into a 43-34 loss. To make matters worse, Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury.

Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide won’t be kind to Auburn. Bryce Young is in the final weeks of a Heisman race and every touchdown matters. Plus, there is nothing Alabama’s fans want to see more than one of the biggest blowouts in Iron Bowl history. We’ll see that on Saturday.

  • College Football picks Week 13: Alabama 45, Auburn 17

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