Toronto Blue Jays: How the Starting Rotation Lines Up for the Postseason

Meaningful baseball in September is back, and the Blue Jays are in the hunt for a Wild Card spot with a week left in the regular season. As they head into a key, three-game home series with AL East rival New York starting Tuesday, they control their destiny. Win, and they’re likely in. With a potential Wild Card play-in game looming, how does the starting rotation line up for the postseason?

The bats have slowed in the past week after a scorching September start. Between September 1st and the 21st, Jays’ hitters scored 142 runs on 45 home runs, a .291 average, and an on-base percentage of .366. They struck out only 17.8% of the time. The weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 145 was well above league average after controlling for park effects.  In four games since then, the bats have cooled to the tune of only 10 runs scored on 5 HRs, a .224 average, and an OBP of .291. They’ve been striking out 19.6% of the time, and the wRC+ is below average at 81.

The starting pitching has, minus a few blips, also continued its dominant stretch this month, with six different starters and an opener combining for a 12-4 record in 24 starts and 127.1 innings with a 3.96 ERA and 4.11 FIP.

How Would the Starting Rotation Line Up for the Postseason?

Based on run differential of +169 after games through Saturday, this team should be in the playoffs. That’s more than three times the +53 combined total of the three other teams with a legitimate Wild Card chance in New York, Boston, and Seattle. Their Pythagorean “expected W-L record”  based on that differential is 94-61, which would be 9.0 games better than the Red Sox 85-70, and 12.0 better than the Yankees 82-73 “expected records”.

In fact, history says the Blue Jays should make the playoffs. As Yahoo! Sports MLB writer Nick Ashbourne noted here, the Blue Jays not making the playoffs would be historically bizarre.

"Since the current playoff format was instituted in 2012, there have been 80 playoff teams (we’re going to skip the wonky 2020 expanded playoffs). On average, those clubs have managed a run differential of +119.9, approximately 50 runs below the current Blue Jays… Of the 80, just 18, or 22.5 percent, have topped the 2021 Blue Jays. In terms of World Series winners, the average run differential is +153.3 and only half of the group ranked above this Toronto team. When it comes to clubs that have missed the playoffs, teams that outscored their opponents like the Blue Jays are unheard of under the current format. Of the 160 non-playoff squads in the Wild-Card Game era, the highest run differential is the +120 posted by the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays. The team with the best RD to miss the postseason in each year has averaged a +84, less than half of what Toronto managed."

With that in mind, let’s turn to how the starting rotation is lining up for the postseason.  With rookie sensation RHP Alek Manoah taking the mound on Sunday in the Twins’ series finale, the final six games line up something like this:

9/28 (Tue) vs. Yankees – LHP Steven Matz or Hyun Jin Ryu (eligible to come off 10-day 9/28)

9/29 (Wed) vs. Yankees – RHP Jose Berríos

9/30 (Thu) vs. Yankees – LHP Robbie Ray

10/1 (Fri) vs. Orioles – RHP Alek Manoah

10/2 (Sat) vs. Orioles – LHP Steven Matz or Hyun Jin Ryu (eligible to come off 10-day IL on 9/28)

10/3 (Sun) vs. Orioles – RHP Jose Berríos

This assumes the Blue Jays keep the current rotation set up as LHP Hyun Jin Ryu comes off the IL. General Manager Ross Atkins said Ryu did not undergo an MRI before the roster move on September 19th and that the club expected him to only miss one start. They could also line up Berríos for a tiebreaker game 163 is necessary.

Postseason Rotation – Ray in the Wild Card, Manoah in Game One of the ALDS

The American League single-elimination Wild Card game is scheduled for Tuesday, October 5th. If the Jays qualify, it will most likely be against Boston away at Fenway given the Red Sox won the season series 10-9, or home at Rogers against New York given the Jays have already won ten games in that season series.

That means AL Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray (13-6, 2.68 ERA in 31 starts and 188 innings pitched, bWAR 7.0) would be lined up for the Wild Card game start against either RHP Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox (9-7, 4.52 ERA in 29 starts and 149.1 innings pitched, bWAR 2.6) or LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. of the Yankees (2-2, 2.85 ERA in 88.1 innings pitched, bWAR 2.6).

Of course, depending on the Wild Card standings through the last day of the season, the Yankees could also hold back their Cy Young candidate and ace RHP Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.08 ERA in 29 starts and 175.1 innings pitched, bWAR 5.8) for the Wild Card play-in game. The Red Sox could do the same with their ace RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, 3.88 ERA in 31 starts and 176.1 innings pitched, bWAR 4.2).

With a potential Wild Card play-in game looming, how does the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation line up for a potential postseason?

The dream scenario for Blue Jays fans would be a home Wild Card game against the Yankees, with Ray facing Cortes Jr. That obviously assumes the Yankees would need a “must-win” start from Gerrit Cole in the last game of the regular season against the Tampa Rays. The Jays already faced Cortes once in a 6-4 win in the Bronx on September 9th, scoring two runs off six hits in six innings against the Cuban lefty.

Assuming a play-in win behind Ray and the heavy right-handed-hitting lineup, that would line up Alek Manoah to start Game One of the ALDS on Thursday, October 7th. That’s asking a lot of the rookie but he seems to thrive under the spotlight and is said to be one of the most competitive players in the entire organization. Management no doubt would trust him in that situation.

Game Two (October 8th) would be one of Ryu or Matz, Game Three (Oct 10th) would be Berríos, Game Four (October 11th) would be Ray, and if necessary, Game Five on October 13th would be Manoah again.  Of course, they could move Berríos and Ray up to start games two and three of the ALDS depending on whether or not they want to go to a three-man rotation for the playoffs, which might also depend on the health and effectiveness of Ryu.

The fact that these potential playoff scenarios are even possible this late in the regular season is exciting for Blue Jays fans and great for the game of baseball in general. It’s invaluable experience for the young guys on the ball club, and as Marcus Semien said post-game on Saturday night, he doesn’t see any nerves from the younger players, and, “I’ll take us over anybody.”

Let’s go Blue Jays!