NASCAR DFS: South Point 400 Playbook

Larson dominated here in March and wound up getting his first win on a 1.5-mile track. Now he’s coming off another win, this time at Bristol, and still has the fastest car on track regardless of package. Starting on the pole should give him the jump on leading laps early and often but there is downside if they miss on the setup that he’ll drift backward and hurt you in PD. He is fine for both game types though.

Busch is at his home track this week and it’s generally been a good place for him with an average finish inside the top-10 over the last five races and he’s got a very similar average finish on the last 10 comparable races as well. He has some decent PD upside starting at the tail end of the top-10 and after a frustrating Bristol race, he’s likely to show up with an extra chip on his shoulder for this race. Busch makes good sense for either format as he can hit value with a top-three finish or chipping in some fastest laps and/or laps led.

Hamlin’s consistency is clear this year and he’s been clearly consistent here as well. That’s been the basis for playing him all year no matter the track and that’s basically the reasoning behind him again this week. We could go through all the stats but in reality they all point to the same reasoning anyway.

I debated putting Elliott in the playbook this week but ultimately his P11 starting spot won out. His numbers suggest he’s been pretty good here with a few top-10 finishes and an average of 34 laps led a race in the last five, however, if you watch the races it’s more like he puts parts of races together here but not the full things. There are times that he looks like the dominant, can’t lose, car and then others where he’s just coasting around around the top-10. If last week at Bristol lights a fire under him and gets him back to the dominating driver he can be, he could be a sneaky GPP play on Sunday.

Logano was won a couple of times here recently and has a bevy of good finishes under his belt. That being said, it’s still the 550-horsepower package and based on Green Flag Speed at similar tracks, he’s still been the slowest of the Penske Fords, though still top-10 overall and with more races in this package coming down the stretch, he’ll need to have a few great finishes in them to really give himself a shot at a title this year. That first great finish could come on Sunday at Vegas.

Truex is always capable of leading a ton of laps on a mile and a half layout, though we haven’t really seen it in a little while. That’s also been the case here over the last two races as he’s led a grand total of six laps in that span, which all came in March. He does have great finishes at this track with an average finish of 7.8 recently but at his starting spot, we’ll need a flash of laps led capability from him to hit value.

This hasn’t always been his best track, despite being his home track, but that changed last year when he won the race. He’s been showing great form of late with good speed on intermediates this year. Starting mid-pack gives him some PD upside if he can keep that good speed going and add to his two top-fives in the last five races, he will bring quite a bit of value.

It wasn’t happy Harvick last week, was it? It was quite unhappy Harvick after Chase Elliott cost him, in his mind, a chance for his first win on the year. At Vegas though, he might now have next best shot to win until Phoenix as he’s done really well here with four top-10s and an average finish of 8.8. Like we’ve seen from him this year though, he’s been good at finishing highly but not necessarily leading laps. If he can snag some laps led and fastest laps he can add to his upside but outside of the chance that he brings the speed we saw last week with him (in a different package) we’re really hoping that he simply finishes where he started.

Ah, Edward’s favorite play every week. Well this week he may in fact be in a great spot to be a great play with a starting spot P2 on a track that he’s led laps on before and has run well at, before being snake bit late in the races. It’s very interesting to see him priced here given the success he’s had in DFS at this track and the starting spot as he’s averaged 6.6x value on DK at this price the last two Vegas races. Still better for GPPs though.

The last few times Keselowski has seemed like the best play, it hasn’t worked well for DFS but I’m willing to get back on the saddle again this week as he’s clearly very interested in ending his Penske career with a title shot. He’s been great at Vegas with one of the best average finishes in the last five races here and a very good PD mark as well. Starting P10 he’ll have a great chance for PD and keep in mind he finished runner-up to Larson in March.

If you listened to the podcast you'd realize why Bowman is the cover guy for it. It's because we really like him this week. He doesn't have to do that much to hit value at this price. If he replicates what he did here last Fall he gets 6x value which was a top-five and 20 fastest laps after starting P8. Bowman's been really quick in this package this year and needs a strong race to boost his playoff chances.

Matty D finished runner-up here twice in the last three races and has been suprisingly solid at 1.5-mile tracks over the last year or so. Time is running out for him to salvage his Cup hopes and he'll need another very good run to convince teams he's worth a shot still. This could be that shot as clearly he's got the feel for the track and Vegas is the town to get lucky in.

Dillon has been very good at this distance for more than a year now and finished P12 here in March. In the last 10 similar races, he's finished top-15 eight times with an average finish a few spots higher than where he's starting on Sunday. There's a shot for a top-10 here which is too much to pass up at this price.

Suarez is a driver that doesn't immediately stand out on the surface but there are some stats in his favor. He's posted an average finish a handful of spots higher than where he's starting on Sunday and in this package this year he's been more reliable than in the higher horsepower one. Suarez is a guy that likely gets overlooked but there's merit to putting him in your builds.

What’s been the rule with Newman the last few seasons? We use Newman starting outside the top-20 and that’s where he’s starting this week. He’s rolling off P29 on Sunday and in this race last year he started near there (P27) and finished P15 which is one of the three top-20 finishes, including a top-10, that he’s posted here in the last four races. He’s been reeling off good finishes of late as well with an average finish of 20.0 in the last five races this year.

Buescher should be quite popular on Sunday. Let’s just get that out of the way right off the bat. He’s starting P25 but has five top-20s in the last five races here. His average finish of 14.6 in those last five races matches his current average finish over the last five races this season. Buescher does well moving up here with nearly eight spots of PD a race and all of this points to him being a great play.

Custer has a couple of top-20s in his three races here in the Cup series including a P16 finish in this race last year. In the last 10 similar races he’s locked down seven top-20s with an average finish of 15.8. Starting P28, after a bad Bristol race, gives him just the PD upside we’re looking for in this range.

Stenhouse is mispriced this week, at least a little bit, in this starting spot and with this track history. He’s posted three top-15s and an average finish of 13.8 in the last five races here but he’s moved up nearly 5.5 spots a race to achieve that finishing spot. He’s starting just outside the top-20 and did finish P11 here in March. That all sets up for a solid day for Stenhouse.

The last two times the Cup series has come to Vegas, Preece has finished in the top-20 including P15 in March. He’s now starting P24 and in the last five races this year, Preece has produced an average finish of 16.0 which gives him a bit of a hot streak to his credit. He may go a bit overlooked in this starting spot, but he doesn’t need to do much to hit value, especially on FanDuel where he’s a steal.

Yeley is simply here because he’s a super cheap guy who could bring some PD and allow you to get one more higher priced play into a lineup for GPP builds. He’s averaged a finish that’s eight spots higher than where he’s starting and thus bring PD. There is risk he gets lapped a few times but we just need top-30 from him and if he avoids cars crashing, he gets it.