Before most of you were up on Friday morning, Senate Republicans got a very good piece of news: Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley announced he was running for an eighth term.
“It’s 4 a.m. in Iowa so I’m running,” Grassley tweeted, accompanied by a video of him, well, running. “I do that 6 days a week. Before I start the day I want you to know what Barbara and I have decided. I’m running for re-election—a lot more to do, for Iowa.”
That sound you hear is Senate Republicans breathing a major sigh of relief. At 88 years old (his birthday was last Friday), Grassley was regarded by strategists in both parties as a potential retirement in advance of his 2022 reelection.
Grassley has proved to be the most reliable vote-getter in Iowa for the entirety of his four decades in the Senate. Since taking 54% in his first victory, in 1980, Grassley has never dipped below 60% of the vote in his six reelection bids.
In 2016, Democrats touted the candidacy of Patty Judge, but Grassley cruised to a 24-point win.
Grassley’s candidacy effectively then takes Iowa off the board as a competitive race. While Democrats will still talk up their chances with former Rep. Abby Finkenauer in the race, there’s just no evidence – recent or not recent – that Grassley is vulnerable in the least.
That’s a big change from what the contest would have looked like if Grassley had retired. While Republicans would still have had an edge – Iowa leans GOP these days – the race would have been seriously fought and expensive for both sides.
The Point: It’s now likely that national Republicans won’t have to spend a dime to reelect Grassley. Which means more money for offensive opportunities for Republicans in states like Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire.