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LSU (-2.5) at Mississippi State:
Lately, this SEC matchup has not been much of a competition.
LSU has won seven of the past 10 meetings versus Mississippi State and four of the last six. When LSU goes to Mississippi, the Tigers won seven of the previous eight meetings (87.5%), NBC’s Edge Finder.
With that being said, entering 2021, I was and am still high on the LSU Tigers. In the last 10 meetings, LSU has been the favorite in every game, no matter where the location.
To start the season, LSU lost to UCLA 38-27 and bounced back with two strong victories over McNeese State and Central Michigan.
For Mississippi State, they totally blew the 31-29 loss to Memphis and nearly lost to Louisiana Tech in Week 1, leaving them at 2-1, like LSU.
The Tigers are 6-4 ATS on the ML in their last 10 games as the road team. Against the SEC, LSU is 7-3 ATS and ML in the past 10 as the road squad (705) and 8-2 on the ML as an SEC road favorite (80%).
At home versus SEC opponents, the Bulldogs do not share that same success as the Tigers.
Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS (25%) in the last five games at home versus conference opponents and 3-6 since 2019 (33.3%).
In what should be a close game -- back the LSU Tigers. LSU has the more explosive playmakers and a better quarterback with Max Johnson under center and Kayshon Boutte out wide.
The Tigers are 13-7 SU in the last 20 road SEC games, while Mississippi State is 10-10 in the last 20 at home versus SEC opponents (3-5 in last eight).
Pick: LSU Tigers ML (1u)
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Texas (-9.5) and Texas Tech:
The last three meetings between these two teams have resulted in a whopping 75, 73, and 119 points. The total for this is set at 62.
You see where I am going with this?
The two squads have combined for 72-plus points in six out of the last 10 meetings, with at least one team scoring 40-plus points in seven of those contests, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
So far, the Red Raiders have scored 38, 28 and 54 points in three weeks while surrendering 21-22 points to Houston, Stephen F. Austin and FIU.
I am not sure how you allow basically the same amount of points to all three of those teams, but the defense has not been great.
Texas has scored 41 or more points in the last three meetings versus Texas Tech and this season, they have found the end zone often. Texas dropped 38 on then ranked Louisiana Monroe, lost badly to Arkansas 40-21, then drummed Rice 58-0.
The Longhorns scored 79 points in the last two games with 18 pass attempts from their starting quarterback, Hudson Card. In the opening game, Card went 14/21 for 224 yards and two touchdowns.
Both squads have shown holes on the defensive end through three games. Both teams feature star offensive playmakers like Tyler Shough, Tahj Brooks and Erik Ezukanma for the Red Raiders and Bijan Robinson, Jordan Whittington and Xavier Worthy for the Longhorns -- I will back the Over up to 63.0 and ride this trend.
Pick: Over 62 (1u)
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