Coronavirus case rates among Oregon children ages 9 and younger are slightly higher in September than for someone who is in their 60s, 70s, or is 80 and older – something that’s never been true before – according to an analysis of reported COVID-19 cases by The Oregonian/OregonLive.
Young children remain far less likely to be infected than teens and most adults. And young children with infections remain incredibly unlikely to be hospitalized or to die, with two fatalities – both infants – out of more than the 18,000 confirmed or presumed infections identified by health officials since the start of the pandemic.
But spread of the coronavirus has skewed more heavily toward young children in recent months, especially in September – coinciding with schools reopening. Not only are case rates per 10,000 people among young children higher this month than for elderly age ranges, but kids are also making up a growing share of total monthly cases.
Nearly 9% of Oregon’s cases this month are among children 9 and younger, a share not previously seen. The share of cases among Oregonians ages 10 to 19 also rose. Combined, Oregonians 19 and younger account for about 22% of reported cases in September.
Oregon’s shifting landscape of coronavirus spread mirrors what’s happening nationally, with the Beaver State so far posting numbers that show lesser impacts among kids and teens.
The American Academy of Pediatrics said 25.7% of reported cases nationally for the week ending Sept. 16 were among children. That report highlighted the pediatric case share for kids 17 and younger, meaning Oregon’s case rates would look even better because the newsroom’s analysis also includes people ages 18 and 19.
Experts say there’s no mystery behind the increase. The hyper-transmissible delta variant will keep spreading until it exhausts the number of hosts who are either unvaccinated or have no natural immunity after a previous infection.
And the biggest pool right now are children, who through much of the pandemic were the least likely to get infected. Meanwhile, those 11 and younger are not yet able to be vaccinated, and vaccination rates among those 12 to 19 remain the lowest of all age ranges.
School also reopened in late August or early September for most students – perhaps putting Oregon behind other states with earlier start dates for child and teen spread.
“As kids touch these systems more, we’re going to find more cases,” Dr. Eliza Hayes Bakken, an associate professor at Oregon Health & Science University and medical director of the general pediatric practice at Doernbecher Children’s Hospital, said in an interview this week. “Kids are in more in-person settings. We’ve seen some spread in schools. Luckily, our steps to quarantine a whole cohort seems to be working.”
Indeed, there have been isolated cases, and some widespread quarantining since in-person learning returned, but no large outbreaks at schools, where masks are mandatory statewide. It is also true that hospitalization and death rates remain very low for kids who do contract the disease.
One curious aspect of the delta variant, Hayes Bakken said, is that hospitals have not yet seen a wave of kids suffering from multi-symptom inflammatory syndrome, a condition that causes inflammation of the blood vessels and multiple organs in the body. Most often that shows up weeks after a child is infected, and past surges have seen a clear uptick in those cases.
“Young children are resilient against COVID-19,” Chunhuei Chi, director of the Center for Global Health at Oregon State University, said in an email response to questions. “While we don’t want to see them infected, as they could spread to other family members, our main concern is to monitor deaths and hospitalization. So far, it seems all right.”
The Oregonian/OregonLive found case rates among children age 0 to 9 stand at about 76 per 10,000 people for the month of September, exceeding rates for the elderly, which topped out at 71 per 10,000 for those 80 and over. Case rates for those in their 60s stood at 66 per 10,000 people, and for those in their 70s it was 64 per 10,000 people.
The newsroom provided its analysis to the Oregon Health Authority for comment, but officials said they did not review it. The agency conducts its own, separate, review of pediatric cases for children 17 and younger and said Thursday kids and teens were “disproportionately represented” in cases for the week ending Sept. 18.
The agency also noted similar numbers to the newsroom, finding that since Sept. 4 the share of cases statewide among children less than 10 “has risen to 10.7%; before that date, 6.2% of cases were among children of this age.”
Earlier this week Pfizer released the results of a trial showing its COVID vaccine was safe and generated a robust antibody response in children ages 5 to 11. Federal regulators have suggested a vaccine for that age group could be available by Halloween.
Oregon has about 235,000 residents ages 5 to 9 years old, with perhaps another 95,000 ages 10 or 11, Census figures suggest.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, state data shows that children have had a much higher likelihood than adults of catching the coronavirus from members of their household.
To date, about 75% of Oregon adults are fully or partially vaccinated.
And that raises one other obvious point for Hayes Bakken, the OHSU physician: “The best way to protect kids that can’t be vaccinated is to have all the adults around them vaccinated.”
-- Ted Sickinger; tsickinger@oregonian.com; 503-221-8505; @tedsickinger
Ad Choices