Former President Donald Trump's niece, Mary Trump, considers the 2022 midterm election the "most important" of Americans' lifetimes because it could be the deciding factor in whether her uncle runs in 2024.
Donald teased a return to the campaign trail after leaving office in January, promising supporters would be "happy" with his decision. The leading contender for the Republican nomination for president, he hasn't committed to mounting a bid for the White House, instead focusing his attention on helping Republicans win back control of Congress.
Mary told Newsweek editor-at-large Naveed Jamali on his podcast, The Daily Break, that Trump's decision to run will hinge on whether he thinks he "can't lose." If Democrats lose either the House or the Senate in 2022, she believes it could give her uncle the confidence to try to oust President Joe Biden from office.
"If Donald feels he can run and not lose because the system is rigged even further in his favor then he will," Mary said. "And if he wins depends largely upon how Republicans do in 2022 which is why Democrats need to be energized and vote in such large numbers that they can't be overcome."
Trump's throwing his weight behind several candidates looking to win or defend their seats in 2022 and is endorsing several people looking to oust Republicans who voted to impeach him. The former president has a track record for endorsing winning candidates and, since leaving office, has backed winning candidates in one congressional special election and one primary election.
History plays well in Republicans' advantage for winning in 2022, as it's common for a president's party to lose seats in the midterm election. Since 1946, the president's party has lost an average of 25 seats in the midterm elections, according to Forbes, and Republicans only need one in the Senate and six in the House to regain control.
If Republicans were to take control of the House, Mary told Jamali that she believes all investigations would stop. The Democrat-led House is investigating Trump on a number of fronts, including his role in the January 6 Capitol riot and the Department of Justice's seizure of data from devices that belonged to members of Congress, journalists and others. She added that the Senate would be "worse in some ways" if Republicans were at the helm, but didn't offer specifics.
"Right now 2022 is the most important election of our lifetime," Mary said. "If Democrats hang on in 2022, then 2024 becomes the most important election of our lifetime."
Trump maintains command of the GOP and a strong following, so it's likely he would be able to pose a strong challenge to Biden if he were to run in 2024. Having lashed out at some of his critics in the months since he left office, Mary was confident her uncle would be "gunning for" those who opposed him, joking that she would be sent to Guantanamo Bay.
If Trump were to win in 2024, he would also regain the immunity from lawsuits he had while in office the first time. Mary suspected those privileges were more enticing to Trump than the actual job of being president.
Newsweek reached out to former President Donald Trump for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Jenni Fink is a senior editor at Newsweek, based in New York. She leads the National News team, reporting on ... Read more
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