In this edition: The one-sided fight over the Biden agenda, a liberal alliance forms in Rhode Island, and Arizona gets ready to release the results of an election that ended 324 days ago.
Conservatives, who had flooded town hall meetings to halt President Barack Obama's agenda, didn't show up this summer. Liberals, who spent a decade asking why they demobilized during the rise of the tea party, have spent nine months rallying for their agenda. Veterans of President Donald Trump's administration warn that Democrats would “revers[e] the 40-year Reagan revolution” if their budget reconciliation package passes — but Trump himself has barely discussed it.
“There’s rising energy on the conservative side, but it’s not been focused on Congress like I expected,” said Leah Greenberg, the co-founder of the liberal grass-roots group Indivisible. “There’s a level of grass roots anger that you cannot fake, and we’re not seeing that from conservatives.”
As a Sept. 27 deadline for passing the bipartisan infrastructure package gets closer — a deadline created to mollify 10 Democrats who demanded a vote before the final budget deal — liberals are confronting the possibility that a popular bill with scattered and late-starting opposition could fail. Groups that grew out of the 2016 election aftermath, like Indivisible and Justice Democrats, are holding protests outside reluctant Democrats' offices. New groups are starting to pressure Democrats who face no real reelection threat from Republicans, warning that the environment for the party will collapse if it fails to pass what President Biden ran on.
“This isn't personal,” said Kaniela Ing, a co-founder of Our Hawaii Action, which launched Monday after local activists quickly raised money to pressure Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) to back the reconciliation package. “It's about a bad political decision. The precincts that put Ed Case in office went for Biden by 40 to 50 points.”
Opposition to the package looks nothing like what Democrats faced in summer 2009, or Republicans faced in summer 2017 — during the debate over passing the Affordable Care Act, and the debate over repealing it. This year's polling doesn't look very similar to the polling from those years, either. In mid-August, before the 10 House Democrats issued their demand, data collected by Gallup found support for the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package outrunning opposition by roughly two to one.
Support for the ACA never got that high, during the initial debate or after. Neither did support for repeal. Even a Pew poll released Thursday, which put support for the Democratic bill at 49 percent, put opposition at 25 percent. Liberals have engaged in the fight, and conservatives have been slow to join them.
Opportunities for opponents of the bill have been more limited, too — but that doesn't explain the change in what's happening on the ground. Members of Congress held 169 publicly announced town hall meetings in August, compared with 481 two years ago. That represented a boost from 2020, when a combination of campaign schedules and covid restrictions led to just 10 town halls. But to the surprise of some liberals, who watched summer school board meetings get flooded by opponents of how teachers were discussing race, this summer's congressional town halls were downright sleepy.
“It’s not some sort of tea party insurgency,” said Natalia Salgado, the director of federal policy for the left-wing Working Families Party. “I actually thought that there was going to be some sort of deficit hawk town action happening. None of that happened. It was action after action of progressive organizations around the country.”
As Julie Bykowciz reported in the Wall Street Journal, the conservative groups that mobilized voters against the last Democratic administration have struggled to generate as much interest in the spending package. Americans for Prosperity, which transformed during the Obama years into a 50-state campaign organization, had organized hundreds of thousands of phone calls against the spending. On Thursday, AFP announced a new stage of its "End Washington Waste" campaign, with ads targeting 22 House Democrats and three Democratic senators.
Liberals have organized more, though, and all of the congressional Democrats who asked to slow down the process, from Case to Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), faced protests back home. Support for their position has come from No Labels and other business-friendly groups, often in the form of TV advertising; that was matched in most markets by spending from the left, and from pro-administration PACs.
“You can't underestimate the amount of frustration, the amount of anger — just folks shaking their head with disgust and when they realize what their representative is doing,” said Arati Kreibich, who challenged Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) in a 2020 primary and was part of protests this month urging him to back the reconciliation package. “People are catching on to the weird political games that he's playing with people's lives.”
In some ways, the reluctant Democrats are easier to identify and pressure than the holdouts of 2009. Just seven House Democrats represent districts carried by Trump in 2020, an election that saw ticket-splitting fall to a generational low. And just one of those Democrats, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), was the among the nine signers of the Gottheimer letter that demanded the passage of the bipartisan bill before the reconciliation package, which both liberals and Republicans see as a potential way to kill off the administration's most liberal goals.
The letter-signers represent districts that have either shifted to the left, like Gottheimer's; been reliably Democratic, like Case's; or shifted right while voting Democratic anyway, in the case of the three Texas Democrats on the letter. One of them, Rep. Filemon Vela (D), is retiring in 2022; he is the only Democrat not seeking reelection not on board with the reconciliation package. There only three Democrats representing Trump-won states in the Senate; only Manchin is holding out on reconciliation.
It's less opposition than liberal Democrats expected at the start of the year. While far smaller than the party's 2009 majorities, the current Democratic conferences in the House and Senate contain far fewer conservatives, in every way. When Democrats held 257 seats in the House, passing budget language without the Hyde Amendment, which prevents government funding for abortion, was a non-starter. The Democrats' bare 219-seat majority passed a Hyde-free spending bill this summer, with no dissent.
Outside of Congress, liberals have also intertwined with the party's message machine since the early days of the Trump administration. In Long Island, where a coalition of liberal groups protested Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) over her vote to remove prescription drug reform language from the budget bill, many had been working with New York Democrats already on the passage of liberal election and criminal justice reform proposals in Albany. The argument, locally and nationally, is that it's the left trying to rescue both the Biden agenda and the most endangered Democrats; the motives of anyone not on board are suspicious.
“Someone like Kathleen Rice has no real reason to support big pharma, because it’s not like she’s getting more money from it,” said Kiana Abbady, a board member of the Long Island Progressive Coalition, which rallied outside the congresswoman's office last week.
In interviews, the campaigners trying to snuff out opposition to the reconciliation bill were confident it would pass, and cynical about the motives of the holdouts. The opposition, they said, could only be explained by the money being spent by lobbyists and business groups to block Biden's agenda. Without an accompanying grass roots campaign that made them worried about reelection, the holdouts, they said, could be convinced.
“If he does the right thing, we can pivot our message,” said Ing, who ran for the safe Hawaii House seat in 2018 and said he had a friendly relationship with the congressman. “It will be: Thank you, Ed Case.”
Reading list
“To sue the New York Times and his niece, Trump turned to a low-profile attorney from New Jersey,” by David A. Fahrenthold and Alice Crites
Has this ever happened to you?
“Slicing up liberal cities becomes go-to redistricting strategy,” by Tim Henderson
Why liberal Austin has so many Republican members of Congress.
“Amid furor over border images, Biden faces Democratic backlash on immigration,” by Sean Sullivan and Nick Miroff
Activists who decried Trump-era policies want the new president to stop enforcing them.
Why a very liberal city may not pass an activist-backed police reform.
“Youngkin and McAuliffe report massive summer fundraising hauls in Virginia’s race for governor,” by Gregory S. Schneider and Antonio Olivo
For the first time in his career, the Macker is getting out-raised.
“Caitlyn Jenner brought fame to her run for California governor. Why it failed anyway,” by Robin Estrin and Faith E. Pinho
Why some in the media fell for an Ahhhnold mirage.
In the states
Rhode Island. Former secretary of state Matt Brown announced his candidacy for governor this week, challenging Gov. Dan McKee (D), a former lieutenant governor who narrowly defeated a liberal primary challenger in 2018 and ascended to the top job when Gina Raimondo became secretary of commerce.
Brown is going further than challenging one incumbent. His announcement included the roll-out of a 50-candidate slate of liberal Democrats, challenging incumbents who have governed as moderates or conservatives. It's an expansion of a project Rhode Island's left began years ago, with a Rhode Island Political Cooperative that has knocked off conservative and frequently anti-abortion Democrats. With Democrats holding supermajorities in Providence — a 66-to-9 seat majority in the House, and a 33-to-5 seat majority in the Senate — the left sees a chance to reshape the liberal state without risking a Republican victory.
“When we say we're going to win a governing majority, that means a governing majority in the House and the Senate and leadership of the executive branch,” Brown said in an interview. “So we will be able to pass the complete agenda that many of us have been fighting for for a very long time.”
Brown summed up the agenda: A $19 per hour minimum wage, a Green New Deal, shutting down fossil fuel industries in the port of Providence, and raising taxes on the very wealthy. “This corrupt political machine here gave the wealthiest one percent a a tax cut that has cost the state a billion dollars over the last 15 years,” Brown said.
Oregon. Democrats may abandon a redistricting deal they made with Republicans in April, forging ahead with maps that would give the majority party a 5-to-1 advantage in the state's congressional delegation. The initial deal was cut to stop Republicans from abandoning the capitol building in Salem to deny quorum and block the passage of Democratic bills — which stopped, after Republicans were given an equal number of seats on the redistricting committee. But House Speaker Tina Kotek went on to create separate committees, where Democrats advanced more favorable maps.
“I have to pursue all options to defend voting rights in this state,” House Minority Leader Christine Drazan said in an interview. “Access to fair elections is a core principle of our nation, and it should be upheld in the state of Oregon, even with single party control. And for me to do that, my option that I'm left with is the possibility of denying quorum and providing an effective veto to gerrymandered congressional maps in my state.”
The state has until Sept. 27 to approve the maps. If Republicans balk, they expect Democrats to send the issue to the Democratic secretary of state, who has said she would appoint a “People’s Commission” — one that might redraw the state legislative maps, which don't have the same built-in disadvantage for the GOP.
Maine. Former governor Paul LePage got an endorsement for his 2022 comeback bid from Sen. Susan Collins (R), a political ally who has split with him on support for Trump.
New Hampshire. Republicans mocked the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee on Thursday, after conservative writer Michael Graham noticed that the group had erased the Biden-Harris logo from the shirt of the party's candidate in an Oct. 26 special legislative election.
“It is clear that like the Democrats running before him, Andrew Maneval will be fully dependent on money from Washington, D.C. to try to buy this election,” state Rep. Ross Berry told Graham. “But the question must be asked, why are D.C. Democrats de-Bidening him?”
It was a fair question, coming two weeks after the Democrats flipped a less-liberal seat in the Manchester, N.H., suburbs. The DLCC had an answer: The logo looked awful when the image was subjected to the gradient effect the committee uses for all candidate profiles on its website.
“Any claims that we are trying to distance ourselves or this candidate from the Biden administration are not true," said DLCC spokeswoman Christina Polizzi. ”You can note that some of the trees are also photoshopped out. We're not trying to distance ourselves or our candidate from trees either."
Ad watch
Center Forward, “Tradition.” The 10-year-old centrist group has been providing air cover for Democrats who face anger from their base for opposing parts of the Biden agenda — partly funded, as the Daily Poster reported, by industry groups that want parts of the agenda to fail. This spot uses the word “bipartisan” twice and the words “independent” or “independence” three times to praise Sen. Kyrsten Sinema over her role in the bipartisan infrastructure package. “When Arizona needed an infrastructure deal to boost our economy and create jobs, Kyrsten Sinema led the way,” a narrator says. The bill has not become law, but you might not know that from the ad.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce, “All Sides.” After years of supporting Republican candidates for Congress over Democrats, the Chamber balanced its endorsements last year, prompting its top political strategist to walk away. Five of the Democrats endorsed last year are now seeing this ad in their districts; it dramatizes the American economy (and small business owners) as a boxer, fighting in an incredibly dark ring, and getting hammered by unspecified taxes that are part of the Democratic reconciliation package.
Glenn Youngkin, “The Facts.” The Republican nominee for governor in Virginia has adopted a nuanced opposition to vaccine mandates: He encourages people to get the covid-19 shot, but would not require it as a condition for employment in any industry. To rebut a recent Democratic ad that put a doctor front and center, attacking Youngkin, the Republican's campaign has a doctor warn that former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe is “putting politics over science.” It does not specifically mention mandates.
Poll watch
New Jersey governor (Monmouth, 804 registered voters)
Phil Murphy (D): 51% (-1 since August)
Jack Ciattarelli (R): 38% (+2)
Over the past few weeks, New Jersey Republicans have suggested that the race for governor on Nov. 2 is getting closer, with Gov. Phil Murphy watching his poll lead dwindle. Monmouth, the only independent pollster to look at the race since June, isn't seeing that. In a month, Ciattarelli has become better-known by all voters, and consolidated the Republican vote: Support for him from GOP voters has grown from 85 percent in August to 91 percent now. That's the only trend moving his way, though, with Murphy holding a 27-point lead on who could best “handle the pandemic” and the Republican leading by just 2 points on “helping small business” and “crime,” and by just 6 points on “taxes,” an issue at the center of his ad campaign.
President Biden job approval (Gallup, 1005 adults)
Approve: 43% (-6 since August)
Disapprove: 53% (+4)
The lowest approval ratings for the Biden presidency have all come in the past few weeks, as voters process a few overlapping crises – chiefly the withdrawal from Afghanistan and economic growth slowed by the Delta variant. Polarization still shapes perceptions here, with 90 percent of self-identified Democrats saying they approve of Biden. The movement has come almost entirely from independents, who now view the president negatively by a 19-point margin. Biden never enjoyed majority support from White voters, but he came close at the start of the year. As of September, White voters disapprove of Biden by a 29-point margin.
“Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. Supreme Court?” (Marquette Law School, 1411 adults)
Approve: 49% (-11 since July)
Disapprove: 50% (+11)
Before this year, Marquette's polling had found opinion of the court resisting ordinary polarization, with Democrats sometimes viewing the court more favorably than Republicans after decisions that were unpopular on the right. That began to shift in 2020, and it hardened after the court allowed Texas's partial abortion ban to stay in place. Sixty-one percent of Republicans now approve of the court, compared to 37 percent of Democrats. Independents view the court more favorably than not, and the idea of expanding the court — exclusively advanced by Democrats — remains unpopular but has gained support as partisans retreated into their camps. Seventy-one percent of Democrats now favor court expansion, up from 49 percent before the death last year of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But plenty of voters aren't following details closely, and 29 percent incorrectly say that the court's majority was appointed by Democratic presidents.
Recall tracker
Sure, fine — the California recall ended nine days ago. But the electorate didn't finish speaking until Sept. 20, the final day when ballots postmarked by Election Day could be counted. Nearly 2 million ballots have been counted since last Tuesday, very slightly shifting the margins.
The new ballots broke less decisively for the recall than ballots cast by Sept. 14, but only slightly. When he declared victory, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) had carried every county he won in his 2018 race, plus swingy Riverside County, east of Los Angeles. But the “yes” vote led on the tens of thousands of later ballots counted there, pushing it in the lead, a shift that repeated in Merced County — carried by Newsom three years ago.
There are 1.2 million ballots left to count, a third of them from Los Angeles County, which delivered a 42-point margin for “no” last week. There are not enough ballots left in Orange County, which recall proponents hoped would be a stronghold, to overwhelm the narrow “no” win there.
Audit watch
The GOP majority of the Arizona state Senate will deliver a report on the audit of Maricopa County's ballots tomorrow, more than 150 days after the partisan process began. There will be no “public comment or questions” allowed in the Senate room where the findings will be presented, but the makeup of the event offers some hints about what's coming. Shiva Ayyadurai, a perennial candidate in Massachusetts who has no specific expertise in elections — and who has claimed that his 2020 defeat might have been rigged — will join Senate leaders, audit liaisons and the CEO of Cyber Ninjas, which conducted the audit.
Ayyadurai, who holds four degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has traveled to multiple states to argue that a statistical analysis of ballots suggests that Joe Biden's victory was impossible. As first reported by the Arizona Republic, local Republican legislators cited his work as “one of the most respected mathematicians and experts in pattern recognition in America” to argue not only that Trump might have won the state, but that it would have taken support from “130 percent of registered Democrats” for Biden to have won. Ayyadurai appeared remotely at a public hearing last year to make those claims, and was paid $100,000 (over two contacts) to review the Arizona ballots.
"Unfortunately the conspiracy theorists running our state are focused on rehashing their debunked claims of fraud, rather than coming together to solve real problems for Arizonans," Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, said in a statement to the Trailer.
Attorneys for Sidney Powell and her co-plaintiffs in Michigan asked a court to lighten the terms of a sanction over last year's “Kraken" lawsuits, after a judge had asked them to reimburse more than $200,000 in legal fees. In an objection filed on Wednesday, the Powell team argued that the court could lower the fine while still reaching a level “necessary to deter similar misconduct.” They didn't object to reimbursing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson for nearly $22,000 of attorneys' fees, but they argued that the city of Detroit had overstated what it cost to win the case.
“They both successfully opposed the plaintiffs’ motion for a temporary restraining order and they both filed successful motions for sanctions,” Powell's attorneys wrote. “Yet the City spent over five times the amount expended by the State Defendants to achieve the same outcomes. This significant discrepancy suggests that $156,116.25 is far more than necessary to compensate the City or to deter similar conduct in the future.”
Still, while her attorneys suggest that she has learned not to repeat her actions from 2020, Powell has continued to share allegations of election theft. Last week, as the California recall election came to an end, she told a conservative broadcaster that she was “getting reports” of people showing up to vote and being told that ballots had been cast in their name. A blurry video in which a man described this problem circulated before the election, but there's no evidence of voters reporting it to election officials, county or statewide.
Third party watch
Former presidential and New York mayoral candidate Andrew Yang will release his new book “Forward" on Oct. 5, but the secret's out: In it, he lays out his plan for a new Forward Party that would not necessarily compete with Republicans and Democrats.
“You can consider yourself part of the Forward Party while keeping your current party affiliation,” Yang writes. “There will be Forward Democrats and progressives, Forward Republicans and conservatives, Forward independents and unaligned, and so on."
The news that Yang would launch a new party was first reported by Politico's Alex Thompson on Sept. 9, and the relevant material from “Forward” was first reported Thursday by Jake Lahut at Business Insider. The Trailer also has a pre-release copy, and there'll be more to report as Yang begins promoting the book. He did not respond to a question about the Politico story earlier this month.
What's in the book is an ambitious plan for “20 million Forward Party members" to “transform American politics,” starting with the “more than a million Americans” on Yang's mailing list and 3 million social media followers across every platform. (Yang bowed out of the 2020 presidential race after winning fewer than 17,000 votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, but he had a far larger following across the country.) A Web address parked for the Forward Party directs to an in-progress dummy page, but the book lays out “six key principles” for the new effort.
Two of them are concrete: Election reform and universal basic income. Yang, who lost his New York mayoral bid in the city's first ranked-choice election, endorses both “ranked-choice voting and open primaries” as a way to create “truly representative democracy"; the UBI position was already spelled out in his presidential bid.
The other four principles are broader, including “fact-based governance,” “human-centered capitalism,” “effective and modern government,” and “grace and tolerance.” Examples of what Yang's looking for include making “a trip to the DMV or interaction with the IRS… as easy and seamless as online banking.”
Countdown
… 40 days until elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and primaries in Florida’s 20th Congressional District
… 110 days until the election in Florida's 20th Congressional District
