Padres Daily: Tatis makes history, eyes MVP; wild card is over, breaking even might be a longshot

Good morning,

There have not been a lot of reasons to smile in the Padres’ dugout the past several weeks.

“We could have done a better job as a group, especially myself on the front line,” Fernando Tatis Jr. said last night.

But in the seventh inning of what would become their 26^th loss in 36 games, there were smiles and hugs and handshakes and high fives.

History was made.

Tatis sent a 2-2 slider from Jarlín García to the seats beyond left field for his 40^th home run of the season.

“I wish I could celebrate a different story,” Tatis said. “It’s been a long year, a lot of ups and downs, especially coming back from those injuries. At the end of the day, I’m pretty happy with the results and how I bounced back. This is history. It’s something to celebrate.”

Tatis became just the fifth Padres player to ever hit 40 homers in a season.

And he did it while missing 30 games spread across three stints on the injured list — two due to his recurring shoulder injury and once with COVID.

“The injuries, people from the beginning started doubting, how I started the season with the errors and struggling at the plate,” Tatis said. “I just feed from that. You’ve got to learn how to overcome that, silence all the voices and be you. … I feel like I’ve done a pretty great job this year of doing that.”

He became just the ninth player to reach the milestone by age 22, a list that includes five Hall of Famers and two other active players.

(Elias Sports Bureau)

“I wasn’t thinking about it,” Tatis said. “But they told me all the history that was behind today. It feels pretty good to be part of a small list like that. It feels pretty special.”

He is one of 15 players to hit at least 40 homers and steal at least 25 bases in the same season and the second youngest to ever do so ( behind the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr., who hit 41 homers and stole 37 bases at age 21 in 2019.)

The speed-power combination could end up being what puts Tatis over the line ahead of the other National League MVP candidates.

“He’s going to have a strong case, especially if he can finish these last two weeks strong,” Padres manager Jayce Tingler said.

OPS+ and WAR through Tuesday’s games.

(baseball-reference, FanGraphs)

Wild Card? Break even?

The Padres lost last night in a game that was a microcosm of a costly portion of their season.

Much as they let the season slip away against opponents they should have beat more often, the Padres did virtually nothing last night against a 37-year-old pitcher who had thrown seven innings in the major leagues this season (and since 2016).

Scott Kazmir finally started to wilt in the fifth inning, but after loading the bases with no outs against him, the Padres managed just one run (on a catcher’s interference) as hard-throwing reliever Camilo Doval came in and struck out Manny Machado and got Tommy Pham on a double play.

They made it interesting, sure. And that’s more than they have done many nights lately. But it’s far too late to find any solace or even have any interest in that. (Here is Jeff Sanders’ game story from the Giants’ 8-6 victory, in case you want to know how it went down.)

So now the Padres are one game above .500 (76-75) for the first time since they were 13-12 on April 27.

We’re not even going to talk about what the St. Louis Cardinals did yesterday. It doesn’t matter.

OK, they won their 11^th consecutive game.

The Padres would need to win all 11 of their remaining games and have the Cardinals go 5-6 just to finish tied with them for the National League’s second wild card spot.

How unlikely is it the Padres go 11-0?

It is borderline preposterous.

They have not won more than two straight since winning four in a row from Aug. 7 to 10 and have only done so twice since the start of July.

It’s far more pertinent to ask how likely it is the Padres go 6-5. That is what they need to do to finish above .500 for the season.

They have won 10 games since Aug. 11. And the last time they went 6-5 over an 11-game stretch was Aug. 27 to Sept. 10.

The Padres have lost five straight and are now closer to fourth place in the NL West than they are to that second wild card spot.

They trail the Cardinals by six games and lead the Rockies by five.

Just to clarify the math, the Padres need to go at least 5-6 to finish .500 in a season in which they were roundly expected to be among the best teams in the major leagues.

Better Weathers

I asked a few people a few times in recent weeks why Ryan Weathers was still with the Padres rather than getting experience in Triple-A.

The consensus was something like, “At this point, why not?” Optioning him had been considered last month. But once rosters expanded and with the Padres’ need to fill innings, it was seen as better for the team and for Weathers that he remained in the majors.

Turns out, he was here for a game like last night.

The rookie left-hander threw three scoreless innings after replacing starter Vince Velasquez at the beginning of the second.

Weathers had before last night made just five appearances in the past 29 games. That is, since his run as a starter ended after he allowed 31 runs in 20 2/3 innings over six games from July 30 to Aug. 28.

In four appearances out of the bullpen, he has allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings.

“To be able to go the three innings today was big,” Tingler said. “He was really efficient with all his pitches against a really good lineup. … The biggest difference I think is he’s caught his second wind. He’s been a little more fresh. His delivery looks more efficient. The ball is coming out of his hand very well.”

Tidbits

• The three runs allowed by Velasquez last night had the Padres in a familiar bind. It was the fourth time in five games their opponent has scored in the first inning. In 36 games since Aug. 11, the Padres’ opponent has scored first 23 times and in the first inning 14 times.

• The Padres scored their first run on a catcher’s interference when Jake Cronenworth’s swing hit catcher Buster Posey’s glove with the bases loaded. It was the fifth time Cronenworth has reached base on interference, which is tied for second most in the majors. The Padres have reached on interference six times, also second in the majors.

• Javy Guerra returned to the Padres for the first time since last September and was throwing just a tick under 100 mph. He still catches too much of the plate on too many of them. He gave up two runs on three hits while getting just two outs in the sixth inning. His first pitch, at 99.7 mph, was the third-hardest by a Padres pitcher this season behind one at 99.9 by Mason Thompson and one at 99.8 by James Norwood.

• Machado went 2-for-5 to extend his hitting streak to seven games. He is batting .406 (13-for-32) during the run.

• Eric Hosmer had his first four-hit game of the season.

• Correction and update: I said in yesterday’s newsletter that the Padres could surpass their 2019 attendance total. That was 2 a.m. math. That is impossible, as they would need to average almost twice as many fans as Petco Park holds to do so. They can surpass their 2018 total of 2,168,536 by averaging 30,305 over their final four home games. That is significant because the Padres will have had just 45 games in which Petco Park was open to full capacity.

All right, that’s it for me. Day game today.

Talk to you tomorrow.