The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies play the rubber match of a three game series on Thursday afternoon. With the Dodgers hot on the trail of the Giants in the NL West standings, let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Rockies prediction and pick.
Colorado currently stands at 71-80 and is 46-28 at home. If you put $100 on every single Rockies game so far this season, you’d be up $631 on the moneyline.
Los Angeles currently stands at 97-55 and is 45-32 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $348 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Dodgers-Rockies odds.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Rockies Odds
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Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-235)
Colorado Rockies ML (+215)
Over 10.5 Runs (-110)
Under 10.5 Runs (-110)
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
When the Dodgers need a win, they know exactly who they have to turn to, and that's Max Scherzer.
Since Scherzer arrived in Los Angeles, he's been unbeatable. He's made nine starts in his L.A. stint, and the Dodgers have won every single one. The ace's ERA over that span is an unbelievable 0.78.
What's more impressive about the Scherzer streak is that he hasn't picked on weak teams: Scherzer has shut down Houston, Atlanta, and San Diego twice, nearly no-hitting the Padres the second time out.
Realistically, the Rockies aren't capable of rocking Scherzer. Their lineup is in the bottom half of the league in walks, home runs, and OBP. It's more likely they get shut out than they score four or more runs.
This means that the Dodgers likely only need a few runs to win on Thursday. With four runs scored, the Dodgers would have won seven out of nine of Scherzer's past starts. There's a good chance they get that against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland.
Freeland has been poor in the month of September, posting an ERA of 6.23 over four starts. The lefty has lost control of the strike zone and the long ball, allowing 12 earned runs and 10 walks over the 17 innings.
This is a recipe for disaster heading in to this matchup with Los Angeles. The Dodgers draw the second most walks in the league and hit the fifth most homers. Yesterday, the Dodgers used early patience to knock German Marquez out early, drawing four walks in four innings. With a Rockies bullpen still recovering and a starter who has struggled to keep traffic off the basepaths, this Dodgers offense is primed to do some damage.
Why The Rockies Could Win This Game
There's no disputing the Dodgers have the heavy starter advantage today. Max Scherzer is one of the favorites to win Cy Young and Kyle Freeland has been a mediocre starter all year.
But Freeland's history against the Dodgers should raise the eyebrows of underdog bettors. The lefty has faced the Dodgers three times this season, and he's stymied one of the best offense in baseball all three times.
Over 19.0 innings against Los Angeles, Freeland has allowed six earned runs, and more importantly, hasn't walked a single batter. Colorado ended up covering the run line in two of those three starts.
While Freeland might give the Dodgers lineup more problems than most would think, the biggest issue for the Rockies tonight is getting runs off of Max Scherzer.
Scherzer hasn't shown any weaknesses of late. However, the Rockies aren't as susceptible to his biggest strength, the strikeout pitch, as most teams are.
Scherzer has struck out at least seven batters in all but one of his Dodgers starts. He depends on swings and misses to get deep into games, but the Rockies are a solid contact hitting team. Colorado has the seventh least strikeouts in the majors, and have a lower chase rate then half of the teams in the league.
The best shot for the Rockies tonight is to make Scherzer work early and get him off the mound as early as possible. Fight off pitches, get in to deep counts, and get in to the Dodgers bullpen with a few innings left and we could see an upset.
Final Dodgers-Rockies Prediction & Pick
It might be shocking, but the best play today is on a Coors Field under, and that's our Dodgers-Rockies prediction. The Rockies home stadium is notorious for producing runs by the boatload, but the offenses should be kept in check on Thursday. There is simply no way I can back a number as high as 10.5 with Max Scherzer on the mound, especially considering Freeland's history against the Dodgers. Colorado is going to have to score at least two or three runs off a guy that looks unhittable to have a shot at cashing this over, and I don't think they have it in 'em. Play the under with a lights-out Scherzer pitching in a must-win game.
FINAL DODGERS-ROCKIES PICK: UNDER 10.5 RUNS (-110)
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