Underdog corner: 3 best NFL ATS picks and predictions for Week 3

Ken Pomponio

Sportsbook Wire

It wasn't quite the cacophony of the opening weekend, but NFL point-spread underdogs continued to bark in Week 2 with nine covers in 16 games, including five outright winners. We've been near the front of that pack here in Underdog Corner with a 6-0 against the spread record so far with five of our six NFL underdog picks winning straight up.

Now it's time to see if we can stay on track in what very well could be a bounce-back week for the favorites. Eleven of 16 home teams are favored as of Wednesday's NFL odds and lines. Five games had a mid-week spread of at least 7.5 points.

Also see:All Week 3 NFL odds and lines

NFL underdog predictions: Week 3

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:18 p.m. ET.

New Orleans Saints +2.5 (+105) at New England Patriots

The Saints are in a less-than-ideal spot playing a third straight road game after Hurricane Ida forced the relocation of the team's season opener against the Green Bay Packers to a neutral site in Jacksonville, Fla.

However, the Saints figure to be healthier after their Week 2 bout with injuries and a mini COVID-19 outbreak which forced eight assistant coaches to miss the 26-7 drubbing against the Carolina Panthers. Speaking of coming off a loss, the Saints rank among the league's best at bouncing back with a 16-7 straight up and 14-9 ATS records following a defeat since 2016.

So as long as QB Jameis Winston doesn't channel New York Jets QB Zach Wilson of Wek 2 and throw the always-opportunistic Pats 4 interceptions, New Orleans should have just enough to get past rookie QB Mac Jones and the hosts, who have had trouble scoring touchdowns with just three through two games.

If the line remains under 3, go with the Saints (+122) on the money line.

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Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 (-107) at Kansas City Chiefs

In one of the more remarkable current trends, QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have won 10 of their last 13 games, but they've notably managed to cover in only two of those contests. Similarly, K.C. is 4-2 SU against the Bolts over the last three seasons, but L.A. has won the ATS battle at 3-2-1 in that span.

Mahomes and Co. likely will find a way to win Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, but if QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers can clean up some of the miscues they've had so far with killer penalties and dropped passes, they should keep things close against a K.C. defense which is off to a shaky start.

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New York Jets +10.5 (-120) at Denver Broncos

The 0-2 Jets and 2-0 Broncos are obviously on opposite ends of the success spectrum so far, but this is mainly a situational play with the week's lone double-digit spread.

Since the start of the 2018 season, teams favored by 10 or more points are 101-18 (.849) SU but are only 54-62-3 ATS (.466), per Pro Football Reference.

This is certainly unfamiliar territory for the Broncos who have been a double-digit favorite only twice (0-2 ATS) since 2015 so take the 10.5 points and hope Wilson has learned quickly from his aforementioned Week 2 struggles.

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