NFL Betting Week 3 Preview: Early Line Movement & Odds Tracking
After two weeks of NFL action, sports bettors have witnessed underdogs heavily rule the wagering outcome. In Week 1, underdogs went 12-4 ATS (nine SU upsets), followed by a 9-7 ATS mark in Week 2. Off to a 66% ATS start, underdogs have shown that the early numbers by oddsmakers in the NFL have yet to settle in firmly.
The action will return in Week 3 with a primetime showdown between the Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. The Panthers are currently 7.5-point home favorites with a total sitting on the game at 43.5 at SI Sportsbook.
Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.
Michael Chow/USA TODAY Network
NFL Week 3 Games ‘On The Move’
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Moneyline: Arizona (-375) | Jacksonville (+290)
- Spread: ARZ -7.5 (-120) | JAX +7.5 (+100)
- Total: 52– Over: (-110) | Under: 52 (-110)
- Game Info: September 26, 2021 1:00 pm ET | CBS
Jacksonville, who have been outscored 60-34 by the Texans and Broncos, appears poised to become a team that bettors will heavily fade weekly at SI Sportsbook. In Week 3, the Jaguars will host a red-hot Arizona Cardinals club with 34-plus points in both of its wins. Bettors are investing that Arizona’s (-7.5) potent offense, piloted by Kyler Murray, who is playing at an MVP level, will easily exploit a struggling Jacksonville defense surrendering 30 points per game. The line has moved strongly against struggling rookie Trevor Lawrence - as the line has moved five points off the opening number (-2.5) through both the prime numbers of three and seven.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 76% of money on Arizona
- Line Move: Arizona -2.5 to -7.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- ARZ: 1-1 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
- JAX: 0-2 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 0-1 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- JAX: 7-9 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
- Moneyline: New York (+460) | Denver (-650)
- Spread: NYJ +10.5 (-110) | DEN -10.5 (-110)
- Total: 41– Over: (-110) | Under: 41 (-110)
- Game Info: September 26, 2021 4:05 pm ET | CBS
Money continues to arrive backing Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos at SI Sportsbook, pushing Denver to double-digit home favorites. The Broncos have rewarded their backers with ATS wins over the Giants and Jaguars. Bettors are back for more in Week 3, believing Denver's stout defense will feast off rookie Zach Wilson's inexperience. Wilson, who has thrown five interceptions in his first two career games, will likely struggle at Mile High Stadium for a third consecutive week on Sunday. The public is backing laying the points with the Broncos, but this number appears inflated based upon the recency bias of New York's ineptitude against the Patriots in Week 2. The line move of the Broncos as an early 5.5-point favorite has moved sizably, now displaying Denver as 10.5-point home favorites.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 69% of money on Denver
- Line Move: -5.5 to -10.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- NYJ: 0-2 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 0-1 ATS)
- DEN: 2-0 ATS (Home: 1-0 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- NYJ: 6-10 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
- DEN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Miami (+170) | Las Vegas (-270)
- Spread: MIA +3.5 (-110) | LVR -3.5 (-110)
- Total: 45.5– Over (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
- Game Info: September 26, 2021 4:25 pm ET | FOX
Bettors are strongly backing one of the biggest surprises of the early 2021 NFL season. Following victories over the Ravens and Steelers, the Las Vegas Raiders are off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start. This game opened at ‘Pick but has since moved to the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite at SI Sportsbook. Both respected and public money believe that the Miami Dolphins will struggle for the second straight week - based upon the expected absence of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (ribs). Following an impressive road win over New England in Week 1, the Dolphins were shut out by the Buffalo Bills 35-0 in Week 2. Brian Flores’ club will not find any relief traveling to Sin City to face the Raiders with backup Jacoby Brissett in Week 3.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 73% of money on Las Vegas
- Line Move: Raiders ‘PK to -3.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- MIA: 1-1 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
- LVR: 2-0 ATS (Home: 1-0 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- MIA: 11-5 ATS (Home: 7-1 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- LVR: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: Seattle (-125) | Minnesota (+105)
- Spread: SEA -2 (-110) | MIN +2 (-110)
- Total: 55.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 55.5 (-110)
- Game Info: September 26, 2021 4:25 pm ET | FOX
Minnesota blew an opportunity to earn an impressive road win when kicker Greg Joseph missed a potential 37-yard game-winning field goal in the waning seconds of Sunday’s 34-33 loss at Arizona. Bettors do not believe that the Vikings will rebound in Week 3 when they host Russell Wilson and the unbeaten Seattle Seahawks. This game opened in early wagering with Minnesota as 1.5-point home favorites but has since moved to the Seahawks as 2-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook. The biggest key in this matchup will come down to how well the Vikings’ shaky secondary can contain Seattle’s dynamic passing attack featuring DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks have owned their NFC rival posting a 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in the last seven meetings between the clubs.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 64% of money on Seattle
- Line Move: Minnesota -1.5 to Seattle -2
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- SEA: 1-1 ATS (Home: 0-1 ATS, Away: 1-0 ATS)
- MIN:0-2 ATS (Home: 0-0 ATS, Away: 0-2 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- SEA: 8-8 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)
- MIN: 6-10 ATS (Home: 2-6 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
