Tale of the tape: Boundaries for area's House, Senate districts shift in redistrict plans

Changes could be in store for how the Tri-City area will be represented in the Virginia General Assembly by this time next year.

For example, Hopewell voters could find themselves sharing a House district with Petersburg again. Dinwiddie County could find itself in a whole new House district without an incumbent legislator. And two veteran Richmond lawmakers could find themselves pitted against each other in a primary if one Senate plan is adopted.

Those and other scenarios are included in plans submitted this week to the state Redistricting Commission. That is a panel established by Virginia voters last year designed in principle to reduce the political influence that was a part of the legislature's once-a-decade work to redraw the commonwealth's state and congressional district lines. However, these plans were submitted by Democrat and Republican consultants, and while they are far from the finished product, the plan that the panel will cobble together for Assembly approval could still carry some red or blue flavor.

The nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project released an interact analysis of what the commission will be considering over the next couple of weeks.

So what are we looking at?

Right now, the Tri-City area is home to four House districts and three Senate districts. House districts are the 62nd (Hopewell, parts of Prince George and Chesterfield counties), the 63rd (Petersburg, Dinwiddie County, parts of Chesterfield), the 64th (southeastern Prince George) and the 66th (Colonial Heights, parts of Chesterfield). The Senate districts are the 11th (Colonial Heights, part of Chesterfield), the 15th (parts of Dinwiddie and Prince George), and the 16th (Petersburg, Hopewell, parts of Chesterfield, Dinwiddie and Prince George).

Five of the area's seven legislators — two senators and three delegates — are Republicans. The other two are Democrats.

According to the GOP House proposal, the district that now includes Petersburg and Dinwiddie would lose Chesterfield and pick up portions of Prince George County. Prince George would also be shared with Hopewell and parts of Chesterfield, and pick up Surry County. Colonial Heights and parts of Chesterfield would stay its own district.

The Democratic plan carves out five House Districts. Petersburg would be combined with Hopewell and a part of Prince George. Most of Dinwiddie would go into a district that includes Amelia and Nottoway counties, and a part of Chesterfield. Southeastern Chesterfield, now in a district with Hopewell and parts of Prince George, would be a district unto itself.

The remainder of Prince George and Dinwiddie would be put into a district that includes largely blue Emporia and Greensville County.

All current incumbents would be protected in the GOP House plan with the exception of Colonial Heights and Chesterfield, where Democrat Katie Sponsler and Republican Mike Cherry are battling to succeed retiring former House Speaker Kirk Cox.

The Democratic House plan could prompt a special election for Petersburg, Hopewell, Dinwiddie and some Prince George voters depending upon the outcome of the upcoming 62nd and 63rd House races:

• 62nd: Republican incumbent Carrie Coyner of Chesterfield has a Democratic challenger in former Hopewell mayor Jasmine Gore. If Coyner wins this November, then Hopewell would have to hold a special election in November 2022 if the Democratic plan is adopted because Hopewell would be lumped in with Petersburg.
• 63rd: Democratic incumbent Lashrecse Aird of Petersburg is being challenged by Republican Kim Taylor of Dinwiddie. If the Democratic map plan holds up, then special elections would be required in Petersburg, Hopewell, Dinwiddie, and parts of Prince George and Chesterfield. The only question would be which locality loses its incumbent. If Aird wins this November, then Dinwiddie would lose its incumbent. If Taylor is victorious, then Petersburg would lose its incumbent.

If that is not complicated enough, there is a wild-card option in play as well. If both Aird and Gore win in November, then we could have an incumbent-vs-incumbent race for the Democratic nomination in the new Petersburg-Hopewell district.

The Senate plans

They are not quite as convoluted as the House plans, but there still is some potential for political fireworks especially if the Democratic version is approved..

That plan has all of Petersburg and Hopewell, and portions of Chesterfield, Prince George and Richmond within its boundaries, similar to the existing district. However, the plan shifts enough precincts in Richmond that would pit two popular Democratic incumbents, Jennifer McClellan and Joe Morrissey, in a primary battle.

The Democratic plan would put much of Prince George into a district that also includes Newport News, Williamsburg and Suffolk; and Dinwiddie into a district that stretches across southside Virginia into Chesapeake. 

The GOP plan would also pit two incumbents against each other but in an election rather than a primary. The district including all of Colonial Heights and portions of Chesterfield would have Republican Sen. Amanda Chase against Democratic Sen. Ghazala Hashmi.

The rest of the area in the GOP plan would stay pretty much the same as it is now.

What is the Virginia Redistricting Commission? Click here to find out.

The next steps

The redistricting commission has less than three weeks — Oct. 10 to be exact — to adopt a proposal for presentation to the General Assembly. Commission staffers will spend that time trying to merge a final proposal for the panel to consider.

The redistricting commission consists of 16 members — eight from the legislature and eight citizen appointees. The legislative members are equally divided, four each from the House of Delegates and the Senate.

A supermajority 12 of the 16 commission members, six of the legislators and six of the citizens, must vote "yes" in order for a map plan to advance to final approval by the 2022 General Assembly. That supermajority has a further stipulation in that three of the four House members must vote affirmatively for the House plan, and three of the four Senate members must favor the Senate plan. There are no such stipulations placed on the citizen appointees.

The plans that make it to the General Assembly for final approval can only be voted up or down in their entirety. That means lawmakers cannot cherry-pick the plans for changes.

Should the Assembly not come to an agreement, then it would be up to the courts to decide the lines, much like a federal court did in adjusting the boundaries for the districts in the 2019 House elections.

The redistricting panel is also looking at the lines for Virginia's congressional districts. The deadline for those maps is Oct. 25. They also must be approved by the General Assembly.

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Veteran journalist Bill Atkinson (he/him/his) is the regional daily news coach for the USA TODAY Network Southeast Region's Unified Central group, which includes Virginia, West Virginia and portions of North Carolina. He is based at The Progress-Index in Petersburg, Virginia. Contact Bill at batkinson@progress-index.com, and follow him on Twitter at @BAtkinson_PI.