Red Sox: Where Boston can go if J.D. Martinez opts-out this winter

Red Sox options exist if J.D. Martinez ops out

What does the future hold for Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez? Martinez has the last opt-out of his five-year contract that was for $110 MM. In 2022 that will represent $19,350,000 for luxury tax purposes. Martinez could test the market.

J.D. recently expressed a desire to remain in Boston. Is this a possible ploy to open negotiations for an extended deal? With Scott Boras as his agent, expect twists, turns, and Machiavellian methods to commence. Is it worth it? Are the Sox best suited for Martinez to opt-out? Would Martinez risk that money already on the table?

"“Everyone I feel like in Red Sox history will forever know David Ortiz and Pedro Martinez, and those guys that have been here for years so obviously it’s one of those things where that would be a dream.”  – J.D. Martinez"

He’s known mostly as a designated hitter but has seen service time in the outfield. As a defender, he can best be described as a great hitter. Throughout his career, Martinez has floated somewhere between passable to ugly regarding his defense. But the man can flat-out hit.

This season J.D. will finish around 30 bombs, 100 RBI, and a batting average in the .280 to .300 range. Not as dynamic as in the past and certainly not as retched as 2020. Martinez is a solid-run producer, and that isn’t easy to walk away from.

Will the National League accept the DH? If that happens, Martinez’s market potential expands like Pablo Sandoval’s waistline. A temptation for Boras and his client. At 34-years-old the veteran slugger could be looking at his final contract.

Martinez’s outfield time this season can also be a potential selling point with his surprising 1.9 UZR/150. That may represent a defensively anomaly figure but expect Boras to spin it in Gold Glove terminology.

If J.D. takes a sojourn, a market will exist, but getting a contract comparable to his Boston deal is extremely unlikely. His best option may be to play out his deal and test the market after 2022, but if not, Boston should give a thank you and move on to other options.

Outside the organization, there are a handful of free-agent DH types that may be on the market. The most intriguing is Nelson Cruz, who should be subjected not to a PED test but a DNA test. Cruz has to be an alien. I believe I saw him playing for The ‘Men In Black’ softball team. Cruz will land somewhere and churn out 35+ dingers. Cruz could be a one-year gap player. But the more sensible me says look internally.

The Travis Shaw sample in Boston is minuscule but impressive. Shaw has a .257/.333/.937 line in 40 at-bats since returning to The Hub. Shaw can also offer options at third and first, but after tanking for three seasons, the risk lights are flashing red.

Is it time to give up on the ghost named Franchy Cordero? Cordero has been the bouncing ball between Worcester and Boston. In Worcester, Cordero hits, and in Boston, Cordero sits – with a .189 average, the sitting reason is apparent. Like Shaw, Cordero may be sighted this spring in Florida.

Bobby Dalbec has improved enough at first base to be considered a minor defensive liability, but his bat is making its mark – usually against the Green Monster. I like Dalbec just where he is. Ditto for Rafael Devers.

Kyle Schwarber is not a left fielder. A few Cubs fans at Wrigley Field regaled me with Schwarber stories on his poor left-field defense on a recent visit to Chicago. Schwarber, playing first, is about as brilliant as Ford coming out with the Edsel but as a hitter? The issue will be money, as Schwarber will most certainly test the market via his option.

The Red Sox outfield is certainly not on a defensive par with the 2018 group. But is that enough to consider Hunter Renfroe and Alex Verdugo to be slotted at DH? A possibility if Boston upgrades their outfield.

Two long shots would be Yairo Munoz and Jarren Duran. Munoz has a .274 career batting average spread over 521 at-bats. The downside is power, as Munoz appears more of a gap hitter. Duran has some clout, but a good slice of that is the result of the Polar Park bandbox. Duran is still presented as the future in centerfield.

The Red Sox’s top prospect is behemoth Triston Casas. Casas recently got the promotion ticket to Worcester, where he’ll finish out the season. Next will be a stop at the Arizona Fall League, but Boston will not rush Casas. That may change dramatically by mid-2022.

The Red Sox’s most viable option may be a 41-year-old Cruz and hope that he is baseball’s answer to Tom Brady. Cruz’s line at Fenway Park is .343/.396/1.048 with 14 home runs. A simple move for one season with a comparable offensive replacement.