Gavin Lux shouldn’t be overlooked

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Welcome back, playoff peeps!

Of course, it’s possible that this is being read by someone who isn’t participating in the playoffs of a fantasy baseball league, but this one is mainly for those yearning for a championship title. It’s been a very long season and now, it’s time to finish strong. Across MLB, we’re seeing plenty of young players receiving late-season opportunities to show what they can do. Even more, we’re seeing older players like Frank Schwindel helping fantasy teams everywhere.

At this point, if a player is producing, you want them on your fantasy roster. This means that starting a player who’s been struggling, but has name value, could ultimately be hurting you. For example, if you decided to bench Christian Yelich for Schwindel over the past month, you’re looking like a genius right now. Benching a stud isn’t easy, but it’s time to make the tough decisions that will help you secure that championship you worked so hard for. With all that being said, in this week’s waiver wire piece, I’ll be touching on eight players who could be of assistance to your playoff teams over these final couple of weeks. Let’s get into it![[ad:athena]]

Points League Options

(Players rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues)

Garrett Hampson 2B/OF, Rockies (34% rostered)

An annual breakout candidate, Garrett Hampson is looking to finish off 2021 on a high note. Hampson was originally drafted 81st overall in the 2016 MLB Draft by the Rockies and as a minor leaguer, he was exceptionally productive. Over 1,342 at-bats, he slashed .311/.383/.455 with 22 home runs, a whopping 130 stolen bases, a 10.4% walk rate, and a 15.2% strikeout rate. He was tearing up minor league pitching, as he had a batting average below .300 in just one of his four minor league seasons. He was then called up in mid-July of 2018 and understandably, many had high expectations -- expectations that have not yet been met.

Over his first 923 MLB at-bats, he’s slashing .244/.303/.391 with 24 home runs, 40 stolen bases, a 7.5% walk rate, and a 26.3% strikeout rate. This is serviceable production, but it doesn’t resemble the player we saw in the minors. Most notably, his strikeout rate has risen, which is affecting his ability to hit for average. The cause? He’s been struggling mightily against breaking and offspeed pitches. The charts below break down how he’s produced against breaking and offspeed pitches as a major leaguer:

As we can see, his quality of contact against breaking and offspeed pitches has been well below average, and he’s been swinging and missing against these types of pitches way too much. A young player struggling against breaking and/or offspeed pitches early in their MLB career is normal. Additionally, it’s important to understand some players might take longer to adjust than others and I believe that’s what’s happening with Hampson. It’s not by much, but based on the above chart, his quality of contact against breaking and offspeed pitches does seem to be slowly, but surely improving. And like clockwork, over the last few weeks, his quality of contact against breaking and offspeed pitches has been very solid. Once he starts to consistently produce against these pitch types, I’m convinced he’s going to breakout. He doesn’t have much time to put it all together over these final couple of weeks, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish strong.

Gavin Lux 2B/SS, Dodgers (30% rostered)

Early in 2020, MLB Pipeline’s Top-100 list had Gavin Lux ranked as the 2nd best prospect in all of baseball -- a ranking that was very much warranted at the time. Lux was drafted 20th overall in the 2016 MLB Draft by the Dodgers and after his breakout 2019 campaign playing between Double-A and Triple-A, the expectations were high. Over 458 at-bats in 2019, he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs, 10 stolen bases, a 11.7% walk rate, and a 19.5% strikeout rate. This campaign helped him become MLB Pipeline’s 2nd best prospect to kick off 2020 and at that point, he seemed just about MLB-ready.

Fast-forward to today and over the first 440 at-bats of his MLB career, he’s slashing a paltry .225/.304/.357 with 11 home runs, six stolen bases, a 9.7% walk rate, and a 24.7% strikeout rate. In other words, his production has been underwhelming so far. Similarly to someone like Garrett Hampson, I believe we’re just witnessing a young player adjusting to MLB pitching at their own pace. There’s no time limit surrounding a player’s development, so in general, we need to continue to be patient with a talent like Lux. In regards to his value for the rest of 2021, he’s been playing regularly in left field as of late, so he could be a useful fantasy option the rest of the way.

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Deep Points League Options

(layers rostered in under 10% of ESPN leagues)

Freddy Galvis SS/2B/3B, Phillies (8% rostered)

Welcome home, Freddy. On July 30th of this season, the Orioles traded Galvis back to the Phillies after spending the last few seasons with them, the Padres, the Blue Jays, and the Reds. It’s only right that he returned to the organization that originally scouted and eventually signed him out of Venezuela at just 16-years-old. Now 31-years-old, it remains to be seen if he sticks with the club going into 2022, but it looks like Galvis could provide some home runs for your playoff teams.

Before returning to Philadelphia, Galvis assumed the role of the Orioles’ starting shortstop -- allotting him regular offensive opportunities. Over 249 at-bats playing for Baltimore, he slashed .249/.306/.414 with nine home runs and a stolen base. That slash line is middling, but the home runs are what we want to focus on. Since joining the Phillies, he’s swatted four home runs over 61 at-bats, giving him 13 home runs over 310 at-bats on the season. He has two career 20+ home run campaigns, so if he never injured his right quadricep, he would’ve likely reached 20 home runs again this season. Fueling his ability to hit home runs is his solid quality of contact skills and optimal average launch angle. He’s been seeing a lot of time at third base since returning to Philadelphia, meaning he should continue to see regular at-bats through the end of the season. With just a couple weeks left -- possibly just one for some -- a couple of home runs could go a long way.

Bryan De La Cruz OF, Marlins (7% rostered)

About eight years after being signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic by the Astros, Bryan De La Cruz is finally getting an opportunity to prove he belongs in MLB. The 24-year-old has always had quick hands and strong hand-eye coordination. For that reason, he earned a .276/.346/.391 slash line with a 9.2% walk rate and a 20.1% strikeout rate over 2,045 plate appearances. However, he doesn’t possess big time raw power or elite speed. So long-term, his bat and plate approach will have to carry him.

Fortunately, it appears he’s tapped into some more game power this season, playing in Triple-A. Over 272 at-bats, he hit 12 home runs after hitting 16 home runs over his first 1,538 minor league at-bats. Clearly, his strong bat skills will help him tap into more game power as he continues to gain experience against better competition. After joining the Marlins via trade on July 28th, he made his MLB debut just a few days later on July 30th vs the Yankees. To start his MLB career, he’s slashing .333/.389/.497 with five home runs, a stolen base, a 8% walk rate, and a 24.7% strikeout rate over 147 at-bats. Three of those five home runs have come over his last 43 at-bats dating back to September 15th. Over this time span, his quality of contact has been impressive: 107.4 mph max exit velocity, a 15.6% barrel rate, and a 62.5% hard hit rate over 32 batted ball events. Only injury will stop him from playing regularly for the rest of the season, so go grab him if you’re looking for cheap offensive help.

Drew Rasmussen RP/SP, Rays (5% rostered)

You had me at high-spin, high velocity four-seam fastball. As I’ve stated in previous waiver wire articles, any time I notice that a pitcher possesses a high-spin, high velocity fastball, I’m instantaneously intrigued. Enter Drew Rasmussen, a 6-foot-1, 211 pound righty who possesses a high-spin four-seamer that maxes out around 100 mph. The 26-year-old only had 85 ⅔ innings pitched in the minors before making his MLB debut, largely due to the fact that he never completed more than four innings pitched in any outing of his minor league career. He’s essentially been a long-reliever to start his professional career, but it seems like the Rays want to see how he’ll produce as a starter.

Rasmussen was originally traded from the Brewers to the Rays on May 21st and on August 24th at Philadelphia, he finally completed five innings in an outing. Aside from his fastball, when on the mound, Rasmussen utilizes a nasty slider, a changeup, and a curveball. However, he’s mainly been a fastball/slider pitcher, as both his changeup and curveball have a usage rate below 3% on the season. His command has looked much improved when compared to his 15 innings pitch sample size from 2020 -- a promising indication that he is growing as a pitcher. I don’t see him exceeding five innings this season, but he could be an excellent source of starting pitching depth over these last couple weeks -- if he remains in the rotation.

Chris Stratton RP, Pirates (8% rostered)

Yes, I know. Owning any Pirates player -- especially a pitcher -- is not ideal. Nonetheless, Chris Stratton is currently the top source of saves in Pittsburgh with David Bednar dealing with a right oblique strain. As a result, he makes for a nice addition to any points league roster’s relief pitching spot. A true veteran, the 31-year-old righty made his MLB debut in 2016 playing for the Giants. Early in his MLB career, the Giants tried him out as starter, but sketchy command along with the lack of strong put away offerings have resulted in him becoming a bullpen arm.

Working solely out of the bullpen this season, he’s earned a 3.68 ERA (3.83 SIERA), 1.31 WHIP, and a 81/31 K/BB (16.1% K-BB) over 73 ⅓ innings pitched. In short, he’s been useful in 2021. Given the fact that he’s not the most overpowering or talented arm, he’s a risky fantasy option, even with a defined role. Nevertheless, if you’ve been frantically searching for a viable relief pitching option, it sounds like Stratton is your guy.

Aaron Ashby SP/RP, Brewers (3% rostered)

Whoever’s been scouting pitchers for the Brewers over these past few years deserves a substantial raise. From Brandon Woodruff, to Devin Williams, to Corbin Burnes, the amount of young pitching talent coming out of Milwaukee right now is rather thrilling. Now, it’s Aaron Ashby’s turn to make a name for himself at the major league level.

In his days as a minor leaguer, the southpaw consistently struggled with his command, but his ability to rack up strikeouts was clear. When on the mound, Ashby throws a two-seamer and a four-seamer -- with both pitches topping out in the upper 90s -- a devastating slider, a changeup, and a curveball. Given this rather deep arsenal that includes multiple put away pitches, Ashby will likely be a starter long-term. His sketchy command could continue to hold him back, but if he learns to consistently command all of his pitches, the sky’s the limit.

Unfortunately, Ashby had a rough MLB debut vs the CHC on June 30th, as he allowed seven runs -- four earned -- on four hits over ⅔ innings. He also walked three batters. It was a disastrous outing, but since then, he’s earned a 1.42 ERA (2.36 SIERA), 0.75 WHIP, and 28:4 K:BB (25.5% K-BB) over 25 ⅓ innings. While his command has been a bit erratic, his control has been consistent, indicated by a solid 44.9% zone rate. With the Brewers’ rotation healthy, Ashby will likely continue to be a multi-inning reliever. Given his stuff, this could result in 10-15 point outings, which is plenty valuable at this stage in the season.

Alcides Escobar SS/2B, Nationals (6% rostered)

Let me be clear, at this point in his career, Escobar’s avenues to points are very limited. The 34-year-old veteran doesn’t steal anymore, he’s never had much home run upside, and he doesn’t draw many walks. So why am I recommending Escobar? Because he’ll always have a low strikeout rate, he makes a lot of contact, and he’ll be receiving regular at-bats for the rest of 2021. You’re not adding Escobar if you’re looking for an upside add, you’re adding Escobar if you’re looking for basic, yet useful, fantasy production.

Over 253 at-bats operating as a key infielder for the Nationals, he’s slashing .281/.328/.383 with two home runs, two stolen bases, a 3.6% walk rate, and a 13.8% strikeout rate. As aforementioned, his contact rates have remained strong (career 88.7% zone contact rate; 82.7% contact rate) and as a result, there’s a good chance he’ll maintain a high batting average for the rest of the season. I’m not expecting much else from Escobar, but he just had a four-hit game a few days ago. Hits will have to carry his value for the next two weeks and luckily for Escobar, it’s not hard to see that happening.