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Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the Oscar Race

The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter
 2021-09-21
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter ‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

F rontrunners
King Richard (Warner Bros., 11/19, trailer )
Belfast
(Focus, 11/12, trailer )
A Hero
(Amazon, TBD, TBD)
The Power of the Dog
(Netflix. 11/17, trailer )
Dune
(Warner Bros., 10/22, trailer )
C’mon, Cmon
(A24, TBD, trailer )
CODA
(Apple, 8/13, trailer )
Spencer
(Neon, 11/5, trailer )
The Lost Daughter
(Netflix, 12/31, TBD)
Cyrano
(MGM/UA, 12/31, TBD)

Possibilities
Red Rocket (A24, TBD, TBD)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(Searchlight, 9/17, trailer )
The Hand of God (Netflix, 12/3, trailer )
Titane (Neon, TBD, trailer )
In the Heights (Warner Bros., 6/18, trailer )
Respect (MGM/UA, 8/13, trailer )
Summer of Soul (Searchlight, 7/2, trailer )

Long Shots
Flee (Amazon, TBD, trailer )
Annette
(Amazon, 8/20, trailer )
The French Dispatch
(Searchlight, 7/24, trailer )
Bergman Island
(IFC, 10/15, trailer )
Last Night in Soho
(Focus, 10/29, trailer )
Stillwater (Focus, 7/30, trailer )
A Quiet Place Part II (Paramount, 5/28, trailer )

Still to See
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, TBD, TBD)
The Card Counter
(Focus, 9/10, trailer )
Cry Macho
(Warner Bros., 9/17, trailer )
Don’t Look Up
(Netflix, 12/10, trailer )
The Harder They Fall
(Netflix, 11/3, trailer )
House of Gucci
(MGM/UA, 11/24, trailer )
The Humans
(A24, TBD, TBD)
Licorice Pizza
(MGM/UA, 11/26, TBD)
The Many Saints of Newark
(Warner Bros., TBD, TBD)
Mass
(Bleecker Street, TBD, TBD)
Nightmare Alley
(Searchlight, 12/17, trailer )
No Time to Die
(MGM/UA, TBD, TBD)
Parallel Mothers
(Sony Classics, 12/24, trailer )
Swan Song
(Apple, TBD, TBD)
The Tender Bar
(Amazon, TBD, TBD)
Tick, Tick… Boom (Netflix, TBD, trailer )
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, TBD, TBD)
West Side Story
(Disney, 12/10, trailer )
Zola (A24, 6/30, trailer )

*BEST DIRECTOR*

F rontrunners
Asghar Farhadi ( A Hero )
Kenneth Branagh ( Belfast )
Jane Campion ( The Power of the Dog )
Denis Villeneuve ( Dune )
Reinaldo Marcus Green ( King Richard )

Possibilities
Mike Mills ( C’mon C’mon )
Maggie Gyllenhaal ( The Lost Daughter )
Sian Heder ( CODA )
Pablo Larrain ( Spencer )
Joe Wright ( Cyrano )
Paolo Sorrentino ( The Hand of God )

Long Shots
Sean Baker ( Red Rocket ) — podcast
Jon M. Chu ( In the Heights )
Leos Carax ( Annette )
Julia Ducournau ( Titane )
Edgar Wright ( Last Night in Soho )

Still to See
Pedro Almodovar ( Parallel Mothers ) — podcast
Paul Thomas Anderson ( Licorice Pizza )
Halle Berry ( Bruised )
Janicza Bravo ( Zola )
George Clooney ( The Tender Bar ) — podcast
Joel Coen ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )
Guillermo del Toro ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Clint Eastwood ( Cry Macho )
Cary Fukunaga ( No Time to Die )
Stephen Karam ( The Humans )
Fran Kranz ( Mass )
Adam McKay ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Tick, Tick… Boom! ) — podcast
Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall )
Paul Schrader ( The Card Counter )
Ridley Scott ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Steven Spielberg ( West Side Story ) — podcast
Alan Taylor ( The Many Saints of Newark )

*BEST ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Will Smith ( King Richard ) — podcast
Benedict Cumberbatch ( The Power of the Dog ) — podcast
Simon Rex ( Red Rocket )
Joaquin Phoenix ( C’mon Cmon )
Peter Dinklage ( Cyrano )

Possibilities
Jude Hill ( Belfast )
Matt Damon ( Stillwater )
Timothee Chalamet ( Dune ) — podcast
Adam Driver ( Annette ) — podcast
Andrew Garfield ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast

Long Shots
Michael Keaton ( Worth ) — podcast
Filippo Scotti ( The Hand of God )
Anthony Ramos ( In the Heights )
Amir Jadidi ( A Hero )
Tim Roth ( Bergman Island )
Winston Duke ( Nine Days )

Still to See
Mahershala Ali ( Swan Song ) — podcast
Javier Bardem ( Being the Ricardos )
Nicolas Cage ( Pig )
Clifton Collins, Jr. ( Jockey )
Daniel Craig ( No Time to Die )
Leonardo DiCaprio ( Don’t Look Up )
Adam Driver ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Ansel Elgort ( West Side Story )
Andrew Garfield ( Tick, Tick… Boom! ) — podcast
Jake Gyllenhaal ( The Guilty ) — podcast
Tom Hanks ( Finch ) — podcast
Cooper Hoffman ( Licorice Pizza )
Oscar Isaac ( The Card Counter )
Udo Kier ( Swan Song )
Jonathan Majors ( The Harder They Fall )
Tim Blake Nelson ( Old Henry )
Tye Sheridan ( The Tender Bar )
Denzel Washington ( The Tragedy of Macbeth ) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Kristen Stewart ( Spencer ) — podcast
Olivia Colman ( The Lost Daughter ) — podcast
Jennifer Hudson ( Respect )
Jessica Chastain ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast
Emilia Jones ( CODA )

Possibilities
Haley Bennett ( Cyrano )
Agathe Rousselle ( Titane )
Thomasin McKenzie ( Last Night in Soho ) — podcast
Marion Cotillard ( Annette )

Long Shots
Vicki Krieps ( Bergman Island )
Camille Cottin ( Stillwater )
Virginie Efira ( Benedetta )
Odessa Young ( Mothering Sunday )

Still to See
Halle Berry ( Bruised )
Cate Blanchett ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Emily Blunt ( A Quiet Place Part II )
Sandra Bullock ( The Unforgivable )
Penelope Cruz ( Parallel Mothers )
Jamie Lee Curtis ( Everything Everywhere All at Once )
Vera Farmiga ( The Many Saints of Newark )
Lady Gaga ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Alana Haim ( Licorice Pizza )
Nicole Kidman ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Jennifer Lawrence ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Helen Mirren ( The Duke ) — podcast
Renate Reinsve ( The Worst Person in the World )
Rachel Sennott ( Shiva Baby )
Tessa Thompson ( Passing )
Rachel Zegler ( West Side Story )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Jamie Dornan ( Belfast )
Ciaran Hinds ( Belfast )
Jon Bernthal ( King Richard )
Kodi Smit-McPhee ( The Power of the Dog )
Eugenio Derbez ( CODA ) — podcast

Possibilities
Timothy Spall ( Spencer )
Woody Norman ( C’mon C’mon )
Jimmy Smits ( In the Heights )
Forest Whitaker ( Respect )
Jesse Plemons ( The Power of the Dog )
Simon Helberg ( Annette )

Long Shots
Troy Kotsur ( CODA )
Jeffrey Wright ( The French Dispatch )
Benicio Del Toro ( The French Dispatch ) — podcast
Kelvin Harrison, Jr. ( Cyrano )
Stanley Tucci ( Worth )

Still to See
Ben Affleck ( The Tender Bar ) — podcast
David Alvarez ( West Side Story )
Timothee Chalamet ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Bradley Cooper ( Licorice Pizza )
Willem Dafoe ( The Card Counter ) — podcast
Robin DeJesus ( Tick, Tick… Boom! )
Colman Domingo ( Zola )
Idris Elba ( The Harder They Fall ) — podcast
Mike Faist ( West Side Story )
Corey Hawkins ( The Tragedy of Macbeth ) — podcast
Jonah Hill ( Don’t Look Up )
Jeremy Irons ( House of Gucci )
Jason Isaacs ( Mask )
Richard Jenkins ( The Humans )
Richard Jenkins ( Nightmare Alley )
Jared Leto ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Delroy Lindo ( The Harder They Fall ) — podcast
Rami Malek ( No Time to Die ) — podcast
Rob Morgan ( Don’t Look Up )
Al Pacino ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Mark Rylance ( Don’t Look Up )
J.K. Simmons ( Being the Ricardos )
David Strathairn ( Nightmare Alley )
Bradley Whitford ( Tick, Tick… Boom! )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Caitriona Balfe ( Belfast )
Kirsten Dunst ( The Power of the Dog )
Aunjanue Ellis ( King Richard ) — podcast
Judi Dench ( Belfast ) — podcast
Suzanna Son ( Red Rocket )

Possibilities
Jessie Buckley ( The Lost Daughter )
Marlee Matlin ( CODA )
Saniyya Sidney ( King Richard )
Demi Singleton ( King Richard )
Gaby Hoffmann ( C’mon C’mon )
Dakota Johnson ( The Lost Daughter )

Long Shots
Anya Taylor-Joy ( Last Night in Soho )
Rebecca Ferguson ( Dune )
Audra McDonald ( Respect )
Mia Wasikowska ( Bergman Island )
Lilou Siauvaud ( Stillwater )
Olga Merediz ( In the Heights )

Still to See
Nina Arianda ( Being the Ricardos )
Cate Blanchett ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Toni Collette ( Nightmare Alley )
Ariana DeBose ( West Side Story )
Ann Dowd ( Mass )
Salma Hayek ( House of Gucci )
Jayne Houdyshell ( The Humans )
Vanessa Hudgens ( Tick, Tick… Boom! ) — podcast
Riley Keough ( Zola )
Regina King ( The Harder They Fall ) — podcast
Rooney Mara ( Nightmare Alley )
Frances McDormand ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )
Rita Moreno ( West Side Story )
Ruth Negga ( Passing ) — podcast
Martha Plimpton ( Mass )
Lily Rabe ( The Tender Bar )
Meryl Streep ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
CODA (Sian Heder)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
Compartment No. 6 (Juho Kuosmanen)

Possibilities
Cyrano
(Erica Schmidt)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)

Long Shots
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(Abe Sylvia)
A Quiet Place Part II (John Krasinski) — podcast

Still to See
Cry Macho
(N. Richard Nash & Nich Schenk)
Drive My Car ( Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
The Guilty (Nic Pizzolatto)
House of Gucci
(Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
The Humans
(Stephen Karam)
The Many Saints of Newark
(David Chase & Lawrence Konner)
Nightmare Alley
(Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
No Time to Die
(Cary Fukunaga, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade & Phoebe Waller-Bridge) — podcast (Fukunaga) & podcast (Waller-Bridge)
Passing
(Rebecca Hall)
The Tender Bar
(William Monahan)
Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Steven Levenson)
The Tragedy of Macbeth
(Joel Coen)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
A Hero
(Asghar Farhadi)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
C’mon, Cmon (Mike Mills)
Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)

Possibilities
Spencer
(Steven Knight)
Last Night in Soho
(Edgar Wright)
The Hand of God
(Paolo Sorrentino)
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Løve)

Long Shots
The French Dispatch
(Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Stillwater
(Tom McCarthy) — podcast
Annette (Ron Mael & Russell Mael)
Respect (Callie Khouri & Tracey Scott Wilson)

Still to See
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
The Card Counter
(Paul Schrader)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay)
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Mass (Fran Kranz)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast
Shiva Baby (Emma Seligman)
Zola (Janicza Bravo)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

F rontrunners
Summer of Soul (Searchlight/Hulu)
The Rescue (Nat Geo)
The Velvet Underground (Apple)
Flee (Neon)
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus)

Possibilities
Found (Netflix)
Julia
(Sony Classics)
Cow
(IFC)
Francesco
(Discovery+)
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple TV+)
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free (distribution not yet announced)
Val
(Amazon)

Still to See
Ailey
(Neon)
All Light, Everywhere
(Neon)
Attica
(Showtime)
A Cop Movie
(Netflix)
Becoming Cousteau (Nat Geo)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
Convergence: Courage in a Crisis (Netflix)
Cusp (Showtime)
Fauci (Nat Geo)
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
Introducing, Selma Blair (Discovery+)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)
Mayor Pete (Amazon)
Misha and the Wolves (Netflix)
My Name Is Pauli Murray (Amazon)
Pray Away (Netflix)
Procession (Netflix)
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)
Sisters on Track (Netflix)
Stray (Magnolia)
Torn (Nat Geo)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Titane (France)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
The Hand of God (Italy)

Still to See
Casablanca Beats
(Morocco)*
A Chiara
(Italy)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Fever Dream (Peru)
Hive (Kosovo)*
Lamb (Iceland)
Leave No Traces (Poland)
Oasis (Serbia)*
Olga ( Switzerland )*
One Second (China)
Petite Maman (France)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
7 Prisoners (Brazil)
Sumergible (Ecuador)*
White Building (Cambodia)*

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“Be Alive” — Beyonce Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott ( King Richard )
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King ( Respect )
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison ( Belfast )
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] ( Cyrano )

Possibilities (rest of shortlist)
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg ( Dear Evan Hansen )
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder ( Flag Day )
“We Love Each Other” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries ( CODA )
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton ( The Rescue )

Still to See
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( In the Heights ) — podcast
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell ( No Time to Die )
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren ( Four Good Days ) — podcast
“Never Gonna Tame You” ( The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses ) — podcast
“At the Automat” — Mel Brooks ( The Automat )
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright ( Rebel Hearts )
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart ( The Green Knight )
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“[not yet titled]” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande & Kid Cudi ( Don’t Look Up )
“Columbia, Mi Encanto” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Encanto ) — podcast
“Just for Me” — SZA & Saint JHN ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“On My Way” — Alex Lahey ( The Mitchells vs. The Machines )
“We Win” — Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine ( Cruella )
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak ( Shang-Chi and the L egend of the Ten Rings )
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard ( Raya and the Last Dragon )
“Hourglass” — Mary J. Blige ( Mary J. Blige’s My Life ) — podcast
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum ( The Mitchells vs. the Machines )
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland ( Changing the Game )
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond ( To All the Boys: Always and Forever )
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [“The Lumineers”] ( The Starling )
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge ( Munich: The Edge of War )
“[not yet titled]” — [artists TBA] ( The Harder They Fall )

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