Matt Dolan’s entry into Ohio’s Republican U.S. Senate race offers alternative to pro-Trump pandering. Does he have a chance?

State Sen. Matt Dolan, chairman of the Ohio Senate Finance Committee, explains the Senate's school-funding proposal June 1, 2021
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COLUMBUS, Ohio – State Sen. Matt Dolan’s entry into Ohio’s U.S. Senate race injects a new dynamic into the race and raises a key question about today’s Republican Party: Is there room for a candidate who isn’t just all about former President Donald Trump?

Dolan, of Chagrin Falls, isn’t running as an anti-Trump Republican, a la former Gov. John Kasich. But unlike other Republican candidates, he’s not posturing to position himself as 100% pro-Trump -- in a similar vein to U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, whose retirement set off the current Republican free-for-all for next year’s primary election.

“President Trump remains a big influence in the Republican Party. What I am emphasizing is that he is a good Republican candidate,” Dolan said in a Monday interview shortly after announcing his candidacy, emphasizing the word “Republican.” “It’s the Republican ideals that we need to bring to Washington.”

That distinction alone sets Dolan apart from other candidates in the field, who largely have alternated between competing for Trump’s endorsement, emphasizing their Trump bona fides to Trump voters and attacking each other for not being pro-Trump enough. Like others in the GOP field, Dolan also has the resources to mount a credible statewide campaign, including possible backing from Cleveland business leaders and his own personal wealth.

But observers described Dolan’s path as hypothetically feasible, but narrow. And he’s not helped by the fact that he is the fourth candidate to enter the Republican primary from the Cleveland area – also in the race are former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno and investment banker Mike Gibbons.

Tom Sutton, a political science professor at Baldwin-Wallace University, said any Republican candidate not running as vocally pro-Trump faces an “uphill battle” in today’s Republican Party.

“I think he’s betting on there might be another part of the party that hasn’t been heard from in a primary election, and he’d really be the sole owner of that lane, compared to the other candidates who are all trying to out-Trump each other,” Sutton said.

On Monday, Dolan said he wants to run on his legislative record and on issues like the economy and education. Dolan is emphasizing his role negotiating the past two state budgets, which each contained sweeping tax cuts, and his campaign’s “issues” page describes his record supporting the Second Amendment, backing police, strengthening border security and other bread-and-butter issues for Republicans.

“I’ve cut taxes, I’ve reduced regulations. I’ve expanded school choice, I’ve invested in Lake Erie as an economic engine, passed meaningful legislation on the opioid crisis and human trafficking,” he said. ‘It’s those smart, conservative principles that are resonating with people, and that’s why I’m going to win.”

On Monday, he gave answers to questions Trump’s allies, like his campaign manager, Steve Bannon, have tried to use as a litmus test for Republicans in the race.

Asked who won the November election, Dolan, who has criticized Trump and others for “lies” about the November election said: “President Biden won the 2020 election. But the focus needs to be on making sure that the Biden Administration begins to end in 2022, and that we continue to build toward a Republican president in 2024.”

Asked about U.S. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez’s decision to not seek re-election in the aftermath of his vote to impeach Trump over his role in the deadly riot on Jan. 6 at the U.S. Capitol, Dolan said: “I was clear to Anthony I didn’t agree with his vote, but I think for Anthony Gonzalez, one vote shouldn’t decide his public career.”

The “issues” section of Dolan’s campaign website doesn’t mention mask mandates or coronavirus vaccines, completely side-stepping another hot-button issue for conservative, pro-Trump activists. Dolan also is the only Republican U.S. Senate candidate to support the $1 trillion federal infrastructure bill that Portman played a key role in negotiating, but which Trump urged Republicans to oppose.

“I believe my opponents did not endorse it for political reasons,” Dolan said.

But asked if he plans to seek Trump’s endorsement, Dolan said: “If President Trump endorses me, I’d accept it.”

As unlikely as it was, Trump closed the door to any endorsement of Dolan on Monday evening. The former president did so while issuing a statement attacking Dolan and his family for renaming the Cleveland Indians, which Dolan’s family owns. The renaming of the team, which came in the face of longstanding public criticism and pressure from Major League Baseball, is a likely liability with Republican primary voters, given their concerns about “cancel culture.”

Those close to Dolan describe his likely approach as just trying to avoid pandering to Trump voters while focusing on his own record on issues important to Republican voters and other Ohioans.

Robert C. Smith, a prominent Cleveland businessman who chairs the JobsOhio board, said Dolan has a positive reputation with business leaders in Cleveland and Columbus that could help attract business backing.

“He’s the one who has demonstrated being a principled elected office holder,” said Smith, who penned a recent op-ed supporting Dolan and Portman’s infrastructure bill. “He’s his own man. He’s making his own decisions. And it bothers me that a former president could have this much influence from candidates who are trying to win a seat right now. I think the issues are bigger than what the former president says. We need some solutions.”

“I don’t think he’s anti-Trump. I don’t think he’s anything related to Trump,” said one Ohio Republican who knows Dolan. “I think his goal is probably going to be agnostic about that stuff, and just talk about the issues you would have five years ago in a race, rather than it all being about, ‘How do I relate to this certain sphere of politics?’ or ‘How do I connect with this one person?’”

The only recent Republican polling available in Ohio is from private groups with a direct interest in the race – and political polling here has been unreliable for years. But one late July poll from the Club for Growth, a conservative Washington D.C.-based organization that’s endorsed Mandel, offered a hazy outline of the possible size of the GOP electorate for an anti-Trump or Trump-neutral candidate.

The poll of 500 likely voters in next year’s Republican Senate primary found 33% of respondents identified themselves as “traditional” Republicans, as opposed to “Trump” Republicans. Of those self-identified traditional Republicans, 65% said they had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 32% who said unfavorable. Overall, the poll found 14% of Ohio Republicans said they had an unfavorable view of Trump -- an unusually high number for the leader of a political party among their own voters -- but an overall small share of the electorate.

The poll overall found Mandel with a strong lead in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, with author JD Vance and former Ohio Republican Party chairman Jane Timken in a second tier, and the rest of the field, including Dolan, Moreno and Gibbons in a third tier.

Steve Stivers, a former Republican congressman who leads the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, said Dolan has an opportunity to position himself differently than the rest of the field. He described a similar calculation Stivers himself was making earlier this year as he was considering running for Senate, before he quit politics to take the chamber of commerce job instead.

“Someone’s going to win the primary with 30-35%,” Stivers said. “There’s more than one way to skin that cat, especially in a crowded field. And a lot of the other candidates are focused on that one [100% pro-Trump] lane, so Dolan is in a unique position.”

“It’s very early, but a lot of the people I’ve talked to in the past couple of days are really excited, and he brings a unique perspective and record as a legislator,” Stivers said.

But many observers were skeptical of Dolan’s chances, in part because it would require him to completely consolidate a small part of the electorate. And in another crowded Republican Ohio primary, the special election to replace Stivers in August, Trump’s endorsement helped propel his chosen candidate, coal lobbyist Mike Carey, to a resounding primary victory.

Nick Everhart, a Republican consultant in Columbus, said there is no viable path for an anti-Trump candidate in a Republican primary. But, he said there could be a path for a candidate like Dolan to run a campaign focused on their own personal competency, a dynamic that’s more common for a crowded congressional race, not for a statewide U.S. Senate race.

“Certainly, the best chance of it being pulled off in the 2022 U.S. Senate GOP primary landscape nationally is in a field this large like the one in Ohio,” he said.

But, Everhart said, “At the end of the day though, the larger the field, the less oxygen available and ultimately that dynamic benefits the candidate with the highest basement, like Josh Mandel, or another candidate who does get Trump’s endorsement and pulls away from the pack.”

Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life, a prominent anti-abortion group, said other candidates in the field have track records that are more conservative than Dolan’s.

He singled out Dolan’s 2019 vote against the “Heartbeat Bill,” a sweeping abortion ban that’s on hold during a protracted legal battle, as one Dolan will have to explain to GOP primary voters.

Dolan also alienated pro-gun activists in 2019 by introducing a package of reforms Republican Gov. Mike DeWine backed as a response to the fatal mass shooting in Dayton earlier in the year. The bill has stalled in the Republican-dominated legislature.

“I encourage as many people as possible to run for office, and I commend Mr. Dolan for stepping up,” Gonidakis said. “However, it’s difficult to see a path forward for him in a crowded GOP primary where conservatives will dominate voter turnout.”

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