Democrats In Congress May Suffer As Biden’s Ship Sinks. Pollster Says GOP Could Add 41 Seats
Despite the national media’s best efforts to mask the nation’s problems, voters are getting wind of President Joe Biden’s track record – and the results, at the moment, are not pretty.
Depending on which poll one looks at from the past couple of weeks, Biden’s approval rating hovers between 42 percent and 49 percent. As his media allies note, it’s the first time Biden has been underwater with the public since he took office.
And it could prove costly for Democrats in Congress.
On Monday, Washington Examiner columnist Paul Bedard cited the work of a campaign strategist who said Democrats could lose 41 seats in the 2022 midterm elections.
And that’s before Republican legislatures begin carving up their states for redistricting.
Glen Bolger, a pollster with the firm Public Opinion Strategies, told Bedard that the GOP’s outlook is improving among all voter demographic groups, except young Americans – and they don’t vote with the same intensity as the others.
Bolger’s research looked at how a president’s popularity influenced midterms between 1962 and 2018, while excluding 1974, the year President Richard Nixon resigned because of the Watergate scandal.
On average, if the president was above 60 percent approval, his party added one seat in Congress. If the approval rating sat between 49 percent and 59 percent, the president’s party still lost 12 congressional seats.
If the president was below 49 percent, his party lost an average of 39 seats.
Bolger’s firm had Biden currently at 48 percent approval.
“Joe Biden’s overall disapproval rating and, more challenging for him, his strong disapproval ratings are right where [former President] Donald Trump’s were just prior to the November 2018 midterm elections, when the party in power lost the House and numerous gubernatorial seats,” Bolger told the Examiner.
“I would hate to be in charge of candidate recruitment for Democrats because no Democrat in their right mind and a competitive seat would want to run in this political environment.”
Democrats hold the majority in the U.S House by a 220-212 margin with three vacancies. The Senate is knotted at 50-50.
Bedard also noted that a Republican polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates, recently found that when voters were asked which party they intended to vote for next year, 47 percent said Republican, compared to 46 percent for Democrats.
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