How the SF Giants’ rotation sets up for a possible Game 163, wild card game and NLDS

Giants right-hander Kevin Gausman entered the All-Star break as a legitimate Cy Young candidate, but during the second half of the season, 24-year-old starter Logan Webb has carried San Francisco’s rotation.

Webb’s 2.24 ERA in 13 second-half starts ranks seventh in the majors during that timeframe and fourth in the National League behind Max Scherzer, Julio Urías and Adam Wainwright, who are widely regarded as some of the best pitchers in baseball.

Webb’s post-All-Star break performance has been far superior to Gausman, who owns a 4.77 ERA over his last 12 starts and has given up multiple runs in seven consecutive outings. Yet even as Webb continues to emerge as the ace of the staff, the Giants may enter a potential wild card game matchup relying on Gausman instead of Webb.

The current set-up

With a 1.0-game lead over the Dodgers in the National League West with 12 games left to play, the Giants are still hopeful they’ll hold off their rivals and likely secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Winning the division comes with a massive reward as the Giants would avoid a wild card game matchup and have four full days off between their October 3 season finale against the Padres and the start of the NLDS.

If the Giants finish their 162-game schedule tied with the Dodgers, however, they would host a Game 163 in San Francisco on Monday, October 4. A win in that matchup would propel the Giants into the NLDS, but a loss would require the Giants to host the wild card game on Wednesday, October 6.

The Giants may not know how things will shake out until the final day of the regular season, but we can begin to project who the team will turn to in each scenario given the club’s current pitching plans.

Giants manager Gabe Kapler announced Sunday that Gausman will pitch the team’s series opener in San Diego on Tuesday, but the club has not yet determined whether Webb will throw Wednesday or be given an additional day of rest in between starts so he can throw on Thursday.

Assuming Gausman stays on regular rest, he would be lined up to pitch on Sunday in Colorado against the Rockies and again on Friday, October 1 against the Padres. This set-up would give Gausman the chance to start a potential wild card game on Wednesday, October 6, or allow him to throw one of the first two games of the NLDS.

With Webb likely to start either Wednesday or Thursday in San Diego, his second-to-last start of the regular season is projected to be Tuesday, September 28 against the Diamondbacks. This schedule would line Webb up to either start the season finale on October 3 against the Padres if the Giants are still playing for a division title, or would give the Giants the chance to hold him back for a wild card game matchup or an NLDS start.

If the Giants go into the final day of the regular season needing a win to clinch a division title, Webb will take the ball. But if the Giants wind up tying the Dodgers after 162 games, it’s unlikely Gausman or Webb would be available to start a potential Game 163.

Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and a potential Game 163

If the Giants want to tentatively leave right-hander Anthony DeSclafani in position to face the Dodgers on October 4 at Oracle Park, the veteran will pitch on regular rest Friday in Colorado and again on Wednesday, September 29 at home against the Diamondbacks.

There are a few ways the Giants can tweak their rotation over their final 12 games, but it’s unlikely any of the potential changes the club will make would reduce the number of starts Gausman, Webb and DeSclafani will make to close the regular season. With the trio likely to cover eight of the Giants’ final 12 starts and lefty Alex Wood set to pitch in two other games, San Francisco may try to slide Johnny Cueto into its rotation next week if he’s healthy enough to return from the injured list.

If Cueto is able to return from a right elbow strain during the last week of the season, it may make sense for him to either face the Diamondbacks on Thursday, September 30 or match up against the Padres on Saturday, October 2. If Cueto is unable to make it back from the injured list in time to help the Giants, expect Wood to start this Thursday against the Padres and make his next start against the Diamondbacks next week.

One of the dilemmas the Giants are currently facing is whether they would rather have DeSclafani continue to pitch on regular rest for the remainder of the season or build in an additional rest day or him, which would likely line Wood up to start a Game 163 against the Dodgers.

DeSclafani tossed six innings of shutout ball against Los Angeles on September 3 at Oracle Park, but he still has a 7.33 ERA in six games against the Dodgers this season. The right-hander also has a 4.11 ERA on regular rest and a 2.31 ERA in the 10 starts he’s made with five days off between outings.

If the Giants build in an extra day off for DeSclafani, he would likely throw Friday in Colorado and Thursday, September 30 against Arizona, leaving him unavailable for a potential Game 163. This plan would allow Wood to pitch Wednesday, September 29 and be on turn to start a Game 163 against the Dodgers.

The big caveat

The Giants are clearly planning to maximize the starts Gausman and Webb make as they’re currently set up to start six of the team’s final 12 games, but that can change if the Giants extend their lead in the division or watch it slip away altogether.

If the Giants clinch the NL West prior to the final day of the regular season, Webb still might pitch the finale against the Padres, but he likely won’t throw more than a few innings. If the Dodgers clinch the NL West prior to the final day of the regular season, the Giants would be inclined to hold Webb back from facing the Padres so he could start the wild card game on October 6.

While it’s widely assumed the race between the Giants and Dodgers will come down to the wire, an early clinching scenario would allow both teams to adjust their pitching plans accordingly.