Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is reminding her party’s leaders that the less liberal part of the Democratic congressional caucus, small as it may be, still holds a strong legislative poker hand.
The likely result will be more of a public relations win than a substantive one for the purported centrists, while the taxpayers still lose and the party’s left wing whines while actually winning more than it should.
By numerous reports, Sinema is leading the Democratic semi-centrists in an ultimatum to the White House: Pass the pending, bloated, $1 trillion “infrastructure” bill by Sept. 27 or forgo any chance of passing anything in the ballpark of the even more monstrously bloated $3.5 trillion social spending bill pushed by the party’s left wing. Sinema, backed by a small group of centrist House Democrats, is also reportedly against the part of the social spending bill that would change the Medicare prescription drug program.
All of this comes amid the insistence of the other main centrist among Senate Democrats, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, that he won’t countenance anything close to $3.5 trillion in the social spending bill. Both Sinema and Manchin are seen as unlikely to oppose the Senate parliamentarian’s ruling that a major extension of immigration amnesty pushed by the left wing is inappropriate, under Senate rules, for the social spending bill.
The short-term arithmetic gives power to Sinema and Manchin. The Senate is evenly divided between the two parties, with Vice President Kamala Harris available to break a 50-50 tie in the Democrats’ favor. Similarly, the Democratic House majority has only three votes to spare among 432 current members. If Republicans stick together against the social spending leviathan, as they surely will, a single Democratic senator or four Democratic congressmen can kill it.
From the extreme left, Washington state’s Rep. Pramila Jayapal says her compatriots will kill the infrastructure bill unless it is paired with the social spending one. Her threat, though, is less sustainable. The Left wants both bills. Even if the social spending one is cut in half, the two bills together would amount to an astonishing $2.75 trillion of brand new federal spending. That $2.75 trillion would satisfy a plethora of left-wing priorities. And, as most of the congressional leftists represent safe districts, they can know they got much more than half of what they wanted without being penalized electorally for having failed to secure their entire wish list.
The semi-centrists, though, have more reason to stand firm. Yes, they really, really want to pass the infrastructure bill. Yet, even more strongly than that, they want not to be saddled with the $3.5 trillion monstrosity and the massive tax hikes to pay for it. Most of them represent districts or states without obvious Democratic leanings, meaning if they go too far leftward, they’ll lose the centrist voters they need to win reelection. It’s better for them to get nothing than to be blamed for the huge tax hikes and spending, as well as the spike in inflation that most voters will blame on the $3.5 trillion package.
Here, though, is where the Left still holds cards. If left-wingers yell loudly enough while finally allowing both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass at a reduced price tag, the alleged centrists can tell their own centrist voters that they cut the spending tab by nearly $2 trillion while still securing the somewhat popular infrastructure law. Sinema and company would get the PR win and the electoral boost, while the Left would get more than half of what it wants.
In other words, the Left would be spewing crocodile tears when lamenting the compromise. Substantively, the Left would win while the “centrists” would get a reelection boost that could help liberals maintain the overall congressional majority after 2022.
In the end, the “fight” among congressional Democrats is just kabuki theater. It’s the Republicans and the future taxpayers who, for now, hold losing hands.
