Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke is preparing to run for governor of Texas next year, meaning that he is poised to make it three election losses in three straight election cycles.
Perhaps O’Rourke thinks that this campaign will be more like his competitive 2018 challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz than his miserable run for the presidency when he was a C-tier candidate whose sputtering campaign was ended by a fellow Texas Democrat. Despite that, O’Rourke maintains his status as the king of the Democratic Party, and Gov. Greg Abbott’s approval ratings are trending down.
But it isn’t that simple. A poll by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler does have Abbott at 45% approval, but he is still ahead of his 44% disapproval. President Joe Biden is underwater in Texas, with 52% disapproving and 40% approving. O’Rourke’s own approval is underwater as well, with 42% disapproving and just 34% approving.
O’Rourke may try to run on abortion and COVID-19, given that this poll indicates those are Abbott’s weak points. But the election is 14 months away, meaning it’s not clear that COVID-19 will be a factor. Abortion polling is always tricky, given how easy it is to skew results with the wording of the question. At the end of the day, this is still the same state that handed “Abortion Barbie” Wendy Davis a resounding loss against Abbott in 2014.
O’Rourke’s vulnerabilities are far more apparent and far less likely to go away. Thousands of migrants are crossing into Texas as the Biden administration continues to encourage them to arrive, thanks to a lack of enforcement. In Texas, Biden’s handling of the border is underwater by an astonishing 52%-29%. Abbott’s handling of the border is at 47% approval, with just 35% disapproving.
And then, of course, there is O’Rourke’s hard-left turn during his presidential run. “Hell yeah, we’re going to take your AR-15” is not exactly a great selling point in the Lone Star State. It’s also worth noting that Abbott has tried very hard to make inroads into South Texas’s Latino communities. Given Donald Trump’s gains there, he may have a chance to cash in on his efforts.
Maybe O’Rourke can make it competitive. He is, after all, a sponge that absorbs money from Democratic donors desperately hoping to turn Texas blue. The media will likely pretend once again that O’Rourke is a Kennedy-esque political talent rather than the mediocrity he is. But despite all the Democratic prophesying about demographic trends, Texas is still a red state.
The 2022 election cycle will not be a “blue wave” in reaction to Trump, as 2018 was. Both nationally and in Texas, it will be a referendum on Biden’s failures. Biden and the national environment will be an anchor on O’Rourke’s chances, as will O’Rourke’s leftward turn. Establishment media will try to push O’Rourke to victory, but unless something drastic happens, he’s simply going to burn the money of Democratic donors on his way to a third straight election loss.
