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Madison Bumgarner O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
This line has yet to open at publishing but this is my expected line.
Bumgarner has yet to meet the Astros this season but has plenty of experience versus this squad, making for a fun matchup worth betting on.
Against Jose Altuve, Bumgarner has struck him out twice in 23 ABs. Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel have two combined strikeouts in 17 tries.
Those three will be key players tonight. While Carlos Correa (3 Ks in 9 ABs) and Martin Maldonado (2 Ks in 4 ABs) will need to be disciplined for us to hit the Under.
Oh yeah, we are playing the Under.
Bumgarner owns a 5.03 ERA, .238 OBA and 0.86 strikeouts per inning average on the road this season with a 3-7 record (12 starts).
In September’s two starts versus the Mariners, Bumgarner struck out five and six in each start but posted a 7.50 ERA and .271 OBA. In 12.0 innings, he struck out 11, walked six and allowed five home runs.
Mad Bum is on a stretch of 5.0 innings or more in 12 consecutive starts. That streak is in jeopardy today as Bumgarner takes the mound at Houston, but more than likely he will go 5.0 and attempt to reach 6.0.
Over the last 15 games versus LHP, 10 of them went Under 4.5 strikeouts against the Astros (66.7%) and five of the previous seven (71.4%), per statmuse. Nine of the past 15 failed to hit 6.0 innings pitched (60%).
Bumgarner has met the Astros eight times in his career and in the first six starts, he lasted 6.1 or more innings over all six. In the last two meetings, both in 2020, Bumgarner made it 4.1 and 5.0 innings.
Back the Under here as Houston can keep Bumgarner at bay and potentially at 5.0 innings or less.
When he does 5.2 innings or fewer, he is 5-5 on the season to the 4.5 K prop (50%) compared to 15-8 to the Over (65.2%) at any inning amount.
In his last 10 starts, Bumgarner hit the Over six times (60%) and five of the last six (83.3%), however I will not be fooled.
Over the past six starts, Bumgarner pitched against the Mariners back-to-backs starts (both Overs), Padres back-to-back starts (both Overs), plus the Phillies twice (One Over) and Pirates once (Over).
Since the start of August, the Pirates and Giants are the only teams in eight starts Bumgarner has not faced twice.
With a new opponent that that is hitting .316 in the last seven days (2nd-best) and at home -- play the Under.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Vince Velasquez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Vince Velasquez will make his first start of the season for the San Diego Padres and it will be on the road (yikes).
Velasquez owns a 7.05 ERA, .265 OBA and 1-4 record in 10 road games (nine starts).
In 2021 away from home as a starter, Velasquez cashed the Under 4.5 strikeouts five out of six times when he goes 5.0 or fewer innings (83.3%) per NBC’s hit rate chart.
Over his nine road starts, he went Under five times overall (55.5%). On the year, Velasquez is 12-8 to the Under 4.5 Ks as a starter (60%).
That hit rate increases to 11-3 to the Under at 5.0 innings or fewer as a starter (78.5%) with 3.3 Ks per game - see graph. The black bars are his five strikeout games, which is what the model projects his final K total to be.
Versus St. Louis, Velasquez had five strikeouts in 4.1 innings and four strikeouts in 2.1 innings -- both back in April.
Velasquez has not pitched versus the Cardinals in four months and with the playoff coming to an end, I don’t think he is the guy worth throwing on the mound away from San Diego.
Since 2019, Velasquez has failed to make it to 5.0 innings versus St. Louis in three straight meetings.
Entering this game, Velasquez has hit the Under 4.5 Ks in four straight road games and went 4.0 innings or fewer in all four.
Back that trend to continue as we hit the last time the Padres threw a non-K pitcher on the mound in a terrible spot for their first start (a la Jake Arrieta at Coors).
Pick: Vince Velasquez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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