Latest Lines: Bass Pro Shops Night Race: The Kyle and Kyle Show

Line Moves

Kyle Busch (+450) opened as the favorite and held onto his status through the morning of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway – but bettor confidence in Kyle Larson drastically closed the gap.

Opening at +440, Busch saw a swing of 20 points midweek to briefly show up with a +460. While that was happening, money began flowing toward Larson. Although he never quite caught Busch – as of Saturday morning anyway – only 10 points separated them midday.

And that underscores how bettors have battled one of the classic problems of handicappers: Which is more important, a driver’s track record or recent momentum? The question remains unanswered.
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Meanwhile, one of our other favorites did not move at all. Denny Hamlin (+675) opened and closed with identical lines, making him one of three drivers among the top five to do so. Chase Elliott at +850 and Joey Logano at +1000 also ended as they started.

In our estimation, these are the most likely top-five finishers and how you bet them is going to come down to your personal strategy. Since Logano has the greatest Return on Investment (ROI), he looks attractive, but the race will come down to track position in the final 75 laps.

Kevin Harvick (+1200) was another of our favorites at the beginning of the week and if any of the drivers listed above him stumble, he is ready to pounce. Given his record on rough-surface tracks, it would not be a complete surprise to see him win this week. If you have a firm opinion of one of the drivers listed below 5/1 and want to place a couple of bets on those outside 10/1, he’s worthy.

Brad Keselowski (+1200) also moved 100 points off his opening line in the direction that suggests bettors placed fairly significant wagers on his outright win during the week. We don’t agree and believe he is looking past 2021 to what his new role with Roush Fenway Racing will entail. That loss of focus will cost him an opportunity to score a top-five finish.

Ryan Blaney (+1400) moved 100 points in the opposite direction. Of the two Team Penske drivers, Blaney not only has the greater upside, he has more at stake and is likely to be focused. Driver lineups are fluid and once Austin Cindric moves up to the Cup level, the battle between these two Young Guns will be fierce. Blaney is safe for the moment, but the future begins now.

We believed Kurt Busch (+2000) was a very good value at 22/1 earlier in the week and the deduction of 200 points has not changed that opinion in the slightest. The caveat here is that he cannot afford to gamble if there is the potential that it will allow the other bubble drivers to gain an advantage.

Christopher Bell (+2500) also had a significant change this week with 300 points deducted from his opening line. Given the strength of Joe Gibbs Racing in the Round of 16, this is appropriate, but he is more likely to earn a top-five than challenge for the. His current odds will not drag those to an acceptable level.

One of the line movements that is difficult to explain is Aric Almirola (+5000) dropping from +6000. Last year, he was at +8000 for this race – and quite frankly, that is about where he think he should be now. Gamblers must believe that he has something that needs to be proved and is capable of getting the job accomplished.

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