Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Denver Broncos (1-0) meet the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) Sunday for their Week 2 showdown at TIAA Bank Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Broncos at Jaguars odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Denver opened its season with a 27-13 beatdown of the New York Giants as 3-point road favorites and the Under cashed on the 42-point total. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater lit up New York for 264 yards and 2 TD. Bridgewater ranked as ProFootballFocus' fourth-highest graded QB in Week 1 and had the league's best QBR.

Jacksonville was rolled 37-21 as 3-point road favorites by the Houston Texans last week. It was a "burn the tape" game for the Jaguars who possessed the ball 10 fewer minutes than the Texans, committed twice the penalties and were minus-3 in turnover differential.

Broncos at Jaguars odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:36 p.m. ET.

Money line: Broncos -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Jaguars +210 (bet $100 to win $210)
Against the spread (ATS): Broncos -6.5 (-107) | Jaguars +6.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Broncos at Jaguars key injuries

Broncos

G Graham Glasnow (illness) doubtful
LB Bradley Chubb (ankle) questionable

Jaguars

CB Tre Herndon (knee) out
CB Tyson Campbell (calf) questionable
LB Lerentee McCray (hamstring) questionable

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Broncos at Jaguars odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Broncos 23, Jaguars 20

Money line

PASS with a "lean" on the Jaguars (+210) because I love Jacksonville plus the points and generally like sprinkling on the underdog's money line when taking them to cover.

However, the Jaguars were boat raced in Week 1 by a Texans team projected to be the worst in the NFL. Let's stick with Jacksonville's spread.

Against the spread

This is a great spot for the JAGUARS +6.5 (-115) for a bevy of reasons.

A contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation for betting the NFL. Everyone is trashing Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer after his embarrassing Week 1 loss.

It's understandable to lower Jacksonville and raise Denver in your power rankings based on their Week 1 performances. However, that was already baked into the line which opened at Broncos -2.5.

The lookahead line for this game was Jaguars +1.5 so there have been 5 points added to the number based on the market's reaction to one game. Since Colorado has legalized sports betting I'm expecting Broncos fans to pile into Colorado sportsbooks and hammer their squad.

According to Gilles Gallant on Twitter, since 2014, teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have a 60.4% cover rate in Week 2 (29-19-1 ATS). This adds a little more credibility to my "overreaction" argument above.

Another reason I like Jacksonville in this spot is that Florida-based football teams have a weather advantage in September that doesn't get enough attention.

The weather forecast is predicting a hot, humid and possibly rainy day. Denver playing its second straight road game at an early East Coast start time in adverse weather conditions could be problematic for the Broncos.

Bridgewater was sensational in Week 1 and if he's just a little less sharp then Denver should have a lot less success offensively. His No. 1 WR (Jeudy) is sidelined with an injury and Jacksonville's defense had the highest pressure rate in Week 1.

Guess which defense had the lowest pressure rate in Week 1? The Broncos against the Giants' sketchy pass protection.

GIMME 1 unit on the JAGUARS +6.5 (-115).

Over/Under

PASS with a "lean" to the Under 45.5 (-115) because Denver's offense should regress a tad, Meyer would be an imbecile to have QB Trevor Lawrence throw the ball 50-plus times again and the market has bet this total up from the 43.5-point opener so we have a "contrarian angle".

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