MLB Standings: 4-4 homestand drops Braves’ NL East lead to 3 games ahead of trip

After Thursday’s postponement, the Atlanta Braves boarded a plane for San Francisco as they get set for their most critical road trip of the 2021 season. They just completed a 4-4 homestand which in retrospect is a little disappointing given that it was against three sub .500 opponents. It is worth mentioning that the Rockies are currently 5-1 on their road trip, but those two one-run losses from Tuesday and Wednesday still sting.

The Braves are headed west for a three-game series in San Francisco, a four-gamer in Arizona and a three-game set in San Diego that will also include the completion of the suspended game from July 21. Atlanta heads into the trip with a three-game cushion over the Phillies in the NL East standings with a magic number of 15 to clinch.

National League East

Braves 76-68 (.528), —
Phillies 74-72 (.507), 3.0 GB
Mets 72-75 (.497), 5.0 GB

A quick glance at the top of the NL East standings shows three teams that are not playing their best baseball. Atlanta has gone 5-5 over their last 10 and as we mentioned above, missed out on a prime opportunity to extend their lead. The Phillies have won two straight but are just 4-6 over their last 10 games. The Mets are even worse having lost seven of ten and appear to be on the brink of sliding out of the race completely.

The Phillies will held to New York to face the Mets in a three-game series that begins Friday. From there, they will return home to begin a seven-game homestand against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Once the Mets finish up with Philadelphia this weekend they will hit the road for a two-game stop in Boston and then three in Milwaukee.

Playoff Odds

FanGraphs latest playoff odds still have the Braves as the favorite to win the division although the gap has tightened over the last two days. Still, the Braves are currently at 81.8% to win the division and 83.8% percent to make the playoffs.

Win Division
Braves: 81.8%
Phillies: 16.7%
Mets: 1.6%

Make Playoffs
Braves: 83.8
Phillies: 21.9%
Mets: 1.9%

NL Wild Card

Dodgers 94-53 (.639), —
Cardinals 76-69 (.524), —
Padres 76-70 (.521) 0.5 GB
Reds 76-71 (.517), 1.0 GB
Phillies 74-72 (.507) 2.5, GB
Mets 72-75 (.490), 5.0 GB

The NL Wild Card picture has shifted quite a bit since the last time we checked in. The Dodgers have the first wild card spot locked down but the Cardinals are now currently holding the second. The Padres are 4-6 over their last 10 games and are just a half game back. The Reds have gone 3-7 over their last 10 and are now 1.0 game back. The Phillies are there at 2.5 games back but would have to climb over three teams while the Mets hopes are now on life support.