Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras (7) huddles up with teammates including center Tyler Linderbaum and fullback Monte Pottebaum (38) during a NCAA Big Ten Conference football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Credit: Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen-Imagn Content Services, LLC

While this was my hunch before the season, the first two weeks of the 2021 Big Ten season have signalled towards October 30’s contest between Wisconsin and Iowa deciding the Big Ten West.

Minnesota had a fighter’s chance before star running back Mohamed Ibrahim went down with injury, Northwestern has taken a step back from their 2020 form, Nebraska continues to struggle, Illinois was never in the conversation and Purdue doesn’t figure to pose much of a challenge.

Yes, Wisconsin is 0-1 in Big Ten contests thus far. But the remainder of their conference schedule isn’t extremely tough, and the team even outplayed Penn State in its Week 1 loss.

So with Iowa looking like a top-10 team and Wisconsin figuring to rise to that stature as the weeks go by, I will be extremely surprised if the game between the two schools is not the Big Ten West Championship when the regular season concludes.

Sep 4, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Isaac Guerendo (20) rushes with the football during the third quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

When it’s all said and done, Penn State’s defense will end up being the second-toughest Wisconsin faces this regular season. No. 1 will be Iowa, barring significant changes in the coming weeks.

What the Nittany Lions were able to do Week 1 against the Wisconsin offensive line, receivers, Jake Ferguson and Graham Mertz was extremely impressive, even with the Badgers handing them the football a few times in the red zone.

But the combination of S Jaquan Brisker, LB Ellis Brooks, NT P.J. Mustipher, DE Arnold Ebiketie and LB Brandon Smith gave Mertz and company fits in every important down-and-distance scenario.

With Notre Dame showing signs of weakness against Florida State and Toledo, Michigan not being at the caliber of either Penn State and Iowa and the rest of the Big Ten West being pretty weak on that side of the football, it’s clear Week 1 will prove to have been one of Wisconsin’s toughest tests.

Sep 4, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) throws a pass under pressure from Penn State Nittany Lions linebacker Curtis Jacobs (23) during the second quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s consider what has held Wisconsin back in the red zone thus far (mainly through their first three half of football, as the Eastern Michigan game was over by the second half).

Graham Mertz has failed to hand the ball off twice (one was a fumbled exchange, one came via contact with FB John Chenal), Chez Mellusi tripped on Mertz’s leg, the offensive line committed some brutal penalties and Mertz made some questionable decisions with the football.

The Graham Mertz part of it is concerning, as he has struggled with quick-read, instant-decision throws throughout the beginning of his career. But the offensive line’s push off the ball and the exchanges with running backs? Those are easily correctable mistakes that can be fixed with time and experience.

Wisconsin should have no trouble running the ball in from the 2 or 3 yard line moving forward, something which will only help Mertz’s job of finding open receivers.

The red zone woes cost the Badgers a football game in Week 1. I do not forecast those woes continuing throughout the season.

Sep 11, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers defensive end Matt Henningsen (92) celebrates after sacking Eastern Michigan Eagles quarterback Ben Bryant (8) (not pictured) during the second quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Jim Leonhard’s defense was really good in 2019 and arguable even better in 2017.

But this group? It has a chance to be the coordinator’s best.

The 2019 group allowed 187 passing yards-per-game, 101.3 rushing yards-per-game, forced 1.6 turnovers-per-game and allowed only 16.9 points-per-game.

The 2017 group? 163 passing yards-per-game, 98 rushing yards-per-game, forced 2.1 turnovers-per-game and allowed only 13.9 points-per-game.

After two weeks of 2021 (yes, one was against a poor opponent), we’re seeing signs from all levels of the defense of utter dominance. Oh, and they’ve done it without one of their best players in ILB Leo Chenal.

I’m pointing to the Penn State effort more than anything for this forecast, as a talented and high-powered offense was held to only 16 points, 11 first downs, 3-13 on third down and 50 rushing yards.

When the Nittany Lions did find success, it came thanks to massive coverage busts in the secondary. Unlike talent, mental mistakes like that can be fixed with time and more experience.

Then last weekend, Eastern Michigan came to town and was barely able to pick up a first down.

The unit has NFL talent at linebacker with Leo Chenal and Jack Sanborn, the front of Matt Henningsen, Keeanu Benton and Isaiah Mullens has looked great through two games, the outside linebacker group is deep and explosive, the cornerback duo of Faion Hicks and Caesar Williams were up to the task against one of the Big Ten’s best receiving cores and the safeties figure to give fine contributions all year.

Take away the coverage busts against Penn State that gave the Nittany Lions their only points and offensive success and this is a defense that didn’t give an inch during the first two weeks.

I’m excited to see how the unit progresses as the season continues on.

Sep 11, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Paul Chryst looks on during the fourth quarter against the Eastern Michigan Eagles at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Entering the season expectations were this team would win the Big Ten West and have another shot at Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game.

I know Week 1 was disappointing, but everything for this team is still out there in front of them for the taking. The Big Ten West remains winnable, especially if Wisconsin can beat Iowa on October 30, Ohio State showed signs of weakness during its loss to Oregon and the schedule overall remains favorable for the Badgers.

My colleague Asher Low predicted the team would drop the opener against Penn State and then run the table the rest of the way during his bold predictions. I’m not saying that will exactly happen, but it’s unarguable that everything is still out there for Paul Chryst and his team.

Week 1 was a tough gut-punch, but I’m not ringing any alarm bells. This is still a team that can achieve great things in the coming months.

Contact/Follow us @TheBadgersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin news, notes, opinion and analysis.