SPORTS BETTING

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

Skip Snow
Sportsbook Wire

The Cincinnati Reds (75-71) and Pittsburgh Pirates (54-91) meet Thursday to put a lid on a three-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Piratesodds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tyler Mahle is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 11-5 with a 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 159 1/3 IP over 29 starts.

  • Allowed 3 ER with 17 K over 12 1/3 IP across two starts against the Pirates this season.
  • Has struggled in his batter-friendly home park but owns a 1.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the road.

RHP Connor Overton is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. The 28-year old is making his first big-league start after five outings as a reliever. He has not allowed an earned run while giving up 4 H and 2 BB with 5 K across 7 2/3 IP with the Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh.

  • Has not gone more than 3 IP in an appearance, and his longest outing came more than three weeks ago. Thursday's effort against the Reds figures to be in the opener role on a bullpen day.
  • Pitched 1 inning out of the bullpen Sunday after being claimed off waivers by the Pirates. His previous 6 2/3 innings were logged with the Blue Jays.

Reds at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-108) | Pirates +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

Cincinnati has dropped the first two games of this series and is 0-4 in its last four. Problems with the Cincy offense have led to the Reds going just 4-12 with a .668 OPS since Aug. 28.

The Pirates are 4-1 over their last five games and are 10-5 with a .753 OPS in their last 15 games at PNC Park.

However, that recent Pittsburgh surge at home has been fueled by an easy schedule and a slew of one-run victories. The Reds have been undone by the same margin of late.

With road-warrior Tyler Mahle on the mound and with Cincinnati still playing October-relevant games, peg the REDS (-180) as having a bit of value in the series finale.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Pirates own the league's second-worst run differential at minus-1.43. The price on the visitors is attractive: BACK THE REDS -1.5 (-108).

Over/Under (O/U)

Mixed signals in the supporting analytics for both offenses and bullpens, and not enough data compiled on Overton. PASS.

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