It’s time for the Mets to accept reality. Unless they have a historic finish in their bones, they won’t be a playoff team in 2021.
Cautious optimism lingered over the team as the Mets clung to postseason hope despite a dreadful August that saw their first-half lead in the NL East turn into a deficit behind the Atlanta Braves and Phillies.
A Subway Series win over the Yankees showed the Mets still had life. But any momentum from that emotional weekend dissipated over the past three days, where the St. Louis Cardinals swept three games from the Mets, capped off by an 11-4 win on Wednesday at Citi Field.
While the Braves lost on Wednesday, the Mets still sit 5.5 games out of first place in the NL East with just 15 games to play, and the Phillies hold second place with a two-game advantage on the Mets.
Any faint hopes of the Mets making a push in the wild-card race also vanished in the past three days, with the Cardinals using the sweep to take control of the final NL playoff spot while moving the Mets five games back of them. The San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds and Phillies sit between the Cardinals and Mets in the wild-card standings.
“We played well this weekend, came in some momentum, and just weren’t able to get the job done against the Cardinals,” Jeff McNeil said. “We just got to go out there, play one day at a time. Take care of the Phillies on a Friday, start fast. We got to get real hot.”
Despite the sweep against the Cardinals, the Mets only lost 0.5 games in the NL East standings, thanks to a pair of Braves losses. But given the amount of time remaining on the schedule, treading water isn’t enough, particularly with two teams ahead of them in the division race.
As the Mets have said since their August slide, they’re not ready to call it quits on trying to salvage a playoff spot in the final weeks of the season. They won’t officially admit defeat until they’re mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
“It’s tough to get swept, and it’s tough to lose games against teams that you’re fighting for a spot,” Rojas said. “Like we said when we finished the series against the Yankees and these guys are rolling into the city. But we still have a chance and it’s real. But we have a chance.”
That chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, is down to 2.4% following Wednesday’s games. The Mets will close their season with three games against the Braves in Atlanta, so if they’re still within three games or less entering the final weekend, they’ll still be alive.
But that means the Mets will need to quickly start trimming games off the deficit. In three games against the Cardinals, they lost two by seven runs apiece. In Tuesday’s game, they blew multiple opportunities to close a win before the Cardinals won in 11 innings.
The Mets are aware things are bleak, and at 72-75, it’s more a product of circumstance that they’re still in the playoff hunt at all. But within the mediocre NL East, they still have a puncher’s chance of making a late rally.
But the Mets have underperformed and played inconsistent baseball all season long. With just 15 games left, it’s hard to see them having enough left in the tank to drastically alter their October outlook at this point.
“We’ve had some good pitching at times, had some good hitting at times and just haven’t really put it all together,” McNeil said. “It’s tough in baseball. Tough sport. Things haven’t clicked like we wanted, though we were in first place here for a while, which is positive, but things have probably slipped a little bit and we’re gonna fighting for our lives now.”
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Chris Ryan may be reached at cryan@njadvancemedia.com.
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