Boston Celtics: Predicting Jaylen Brown’s 2021-22 stat line

As unfortunate as a loss Jaylen Brown was to the Boston Celtics in the latter part of the 2020-21 season, his injury allowed him to experience his first entire offseason since he came into the league.

With Brad Stevens and the Cs advancing past the first round and into the later stages of the playoffs almost every season Brown has been in the league, Brown’s time to work on his game in the offseason has been trimmed every year in comparison to his peers.

Luckily for the Celts, Jaylen Brown has shown no signs of being bothered by less time to train. He’s improved every year, patching hole after hole in his game, continuing along his journey to becoming as complete a basketball player as he can. This time around, Jaylen Brown will have the most time to take his most significant leap yet.

Jaylen Brown’s 2020-21 season was excellent, but it was far from perfect. He took massive leaps as a shooter, both in the pull-up and self-creation department, but remains far from polished in either area.

His playmaking improved with his shooting, but his passing remained below average. Brown showed he still wasn’t ready to be a lead ball-handler and consistent decision-maker.

On defense, Brown’s off-ball woes bleed through his film, and with his tendinitis, his on-ball defense took a hit. All in all, even after an All-Star season, Brown has a long way to go to superstardom.

Predicting Jaylen Brown’s production with the 2021-22 Boston Celtics

Beginning with Jaylen Brown’s scoring, let’s take a trip back to the beginning of the 2020-21 season…shall we?

Coming off a quick turnaround after hitting a wall in the Eastern Conference finals against the Miami Heat in the bubble, one would have been able to reason Jaylen Brown would come out slow to start the season. Instead, Brown had the best two-month stretch of his career, which earned him an All-Star slot.

Brown averaged 26 points, 3.6 assists, and 1.3 steals per game on 52% shooting from the field, 42% shooting from three on six attempts, 76% shooting from the line, and maintained a TS% of 61%. There were a few staples to Brown’s elite production, but the biggest was his inside the arc scoring. Brown shot 72% in the restricted area and 51% from midrange, two incredible feats for a wing of his size.

The best scoring wings in the league like Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant put up those splits, yet Jaylen Brown was doing it in a secondary scoring role.

It’s a shame tendinitis and the Celtics’ decision to up Brown’s 3PT output while minimizing his midrange output derailed Brown’s start of the season. Had he remained healthy and continued to play as he was, the Celtics could have had two All-NBA players and possibly been a higher seed.

I believe Brown’s 2021-22 stat line will mirror that of his stat line early on in the 2020-21 season, but this time it will stretch throughout the entire season. With a whole offseason to improve, Brown will return with better pull-up shooting, a superior handle, and play at a better pace, allowing him to become one of the most efficient 26 points per game scorers in the NBA.

Moving on to Brown’s passing, I don’t expect as much from him in this depart as I do his scoring. Given how much time he was sidelined with a cast, therefore unable to work with a basketball, I expect Brown to come back with more awareness this time around due to excess in film review.

Brown’s decision-making has always been a hole in his game, and although he’s come a long way, he’s still far from a finished product. Last season, Brown had one month where he sustained a higher AST% than TOV%, and that was in December when he played five games.

In February, when Jayson Tatum got COVID and Brown became more involved in the Boston Celtics ball-handling, he achieved the highest AST% of the season at 28% but had a TOV% of 31%. The battle for Brown will be tipping the scales to the AST% side, and the only way to do that is to put in the time in the film room to understand better how defenses react to Brown with the ball in his hands.

If Brown can average a shade under five assists per game like he did in February but cut down on the turnovers as he did in December, then the Celtics title odds increase exponentially.

Realistically, Brown will hop over the four assists per game threshold while maintaining a high turnover rate, but a lower one than this past season. I hope I’m wrong, but his playmaking ceiling will never be high until he can consistently play the role as lead ball-handler, much like Tatum learned how to do this past season.

Lastly is Brown’s defense. In a perfect world, the 2016 #3 pick realizes he’s a peak around his shoulder away from being a lock for an All-defense team, but the Boston Celtics do not reside in such a utopia. Brown will likely remain a below-average off-ball defender, but hopefully, his lapses will become a little less frequent this year.

This, combined with his improved on-ball defense due to his improved health, should get him back to the defensive level he was at in the bubble.

Overall, I expect Brown to come storming out of the gates to begin the season, but this time sustain his production over the year. In the end, Jaylen Brown’s 2021-22 season should look something like 26 points, five rebounds, four assists, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks, and a TS% of 61%. At the end of the day, as long as Brown is healthy, the Boston Celtics will be fine, and that’s all that matters.