When we talk about quarterback statistics, there’s a metric I wish existed — something that told us about open throws, or throws coming open, that quarterbacks have time to make, and don’t make for whatever reason. You have to watch the overhead view to really see how things come open over time. While the presence or absence of big-time throws on the page tells you some of that story, it’s essential when evaluating a quarterback to understand his ability to make throws that place him over the average on a consistent basis.
Two quarterbacks who were involved in Week 1 wins showed this disparity — Matthew Stafford of the Rams, and Derek Carr of the Raiders. And the deep shot numbers actually tell a different story than the tape does. Per Pro Football Focus, against the Bears on Sunday night, Stafford attempted just four passes of 20 or more air yards, completing three for 160 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 156.3. Carr had more deep attempts than any other quarterback in Week 1 — eight attempts, with three completions for 100 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 125.0.
So, the common narrative that Carr is averse to the deep ball, or can’t make those plays happen, is a bit of a canard. Carr was air-mailing just about everything early on — he completed just two of 11 passes in the first quarter, much to the ire of Charles Barkley, but when he settled down, he got in a good space to create explosive plays.
However, there’s one play I’m guessing Carr would probably would like to do over, and I bet he felt that way the second he saw it on tape either right after the game, or on Tuesday morning when he went over the All-22.
The deep touchdown Derek Carr missed.
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
This was the game’s second play from scrimmage. The Raiders had second-and-10 from their own 25 after Carr had thrown his first incompletion of many to tight end Darren Waller, and Jon Gruden dialed up a sweet look against Baltimore’s single-high look. Carr actually helped by moving his eyes and body to the back side, which moved safety Chuck Clark over from the deep middle. Henry Ruggs III ran the backside deep over from the slot, and because Clark was displaced, Ruggs — whose 4.27 speed is obvious on the field as well — was completely open as he turned on the route.
Carr had the time to see Ruggs’ route as it developed open, but he appeared to remain fixated on Ingold as the backside hot route, and even with a clean pocket, he passed up the easy big play.
Carr had some big-time throws later, and you have to love his competitiveness to keep coming back against this defense (especially against the Ravens’ insistence on playing Cover-0 when they maybe shouldn’t have), but I’m guessing he gave himself a little thwack on the head when he watched the tape.
The deep touchdown Matthew Stafford created.
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Stafford won NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in the Rams’ beatdown of the Bears, and it was well-deserved. Sean McVay said after the game that with Stafford, there’s nothing in the playbook he can’t call, and that’s not just about Stafford’s arm talent. He also understands safety manipulation, and how to exploit safety manipulation, to an elevated extent.
Stafford’s 56-yard touchdown pass to Cooper Kupp with 13:52 left in the third quarter was the optimal example. Chicago’s defensive breakdown was hotly debated on social media as we all tried to discern who goofed up on what, though the early dots helped to a degree.
Matthew Stafford & Cooper Kupp (56-yard TD)
Kupp had 11.3 yards of separation from the nearest defender when the pass arrived (#4 Eddie Jackson), the most separation on a completion over 40 yards downfield over the last three seasons.#CHIvsLAR | Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/wknSES43KV
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 13, 2021
As my Touchdown Wire colleague Mark Schofield pointed out, the Bears were playing Cover-6 here (quarter-quarter-half), with Cover-2 to one side of the field, and Cover-4 to the other. Eddie Jackson (No. 4), the backside safety, was Stafford’s huckleberry here. On the end zone angle, you can see how Stafford moved Jackson from the deep third, making Jackson think that the throw was to Van Jefferson (No. 12) on the deep curl. And when that happens, slot defender Marqui Christian (No. 23) was hosed, because he didn’t take Kupp all the way up the field — at one point, you can see Christian looking around for deep help.
So, you have contrasting routes creating an opening for the deep crosser. You have a quarterback manipulating the safety to further create the deep opening. You have the backside hot route if you need it, though they came out of different formations. Those aspects of the two plays are similar. The difference is, of course, that Stafford made the big-time throw.
“That was a great call by Sean,” Stafford said of this play. “Perfect coverage for the play. Our guys up front again gave me a bunch of time. It takes time for guys to get down the field. Cooper did a great job, again, just getting behind the defense and I was able to get it out there to a decent spot for him.”
That’s all true, but you can call the most incredible passing concepts in the NFL, and it doesn’t matter if your quarterback doesn’t work through the timing of the play to bring them to life. In this particular instance, Stafford came through, and Carr unfortunately fell short.
