An analysis of the tax provisions in congressional Democrats’ multitrillion-dollar reconciliation package found that the middle class will see a slight overall increase in taxes toward the end of the decade.
A distributional analysis released Tuesday by the Joint Committee on Taxation found that while taxes would only increase for the wealthy in the first calendar year it analyzed, as the decade wears on and the expanded child tax credit expires, the average tax rate will increase on those in lower brackets.
By 2027, the average tax rate for people making between $50,000 and $75,000 will rise by an estimated 1%. Those making between $75,000 and $100,000 would see their overall tax burden climb by 1.3%, and those making between $100,000 and $200,000 would see a 1.5% increase.
HOUSE DEMOCRATIC PROPOSALS AMOUNT TO $2 TRILLION TAX HIKE
Average tax rates would also be higher, although more modestly so, for those groups through 2031, according to the analysis.
The expanded child tax credit is expected to expire at the end of the year, although Democrats are pushing to extend it to 2025 as part of their reconciliation legislation.
The expanded credit increased the money that families received from $2,000 per child to $3,600 for children under 6 years old and $3,000 for older children. It also made it so that even a parent who is not working and has no income could receive the entire sum, a move ripped by the GOP as the equivalent to welfare without work. Another change is that the expanded credit is now disbursed in monthly payments.
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The child tax credit is a source of contention among Democrats in their struggle to pass their reconciliation bill. Some want to make the expansion permanent, beyond the proposed 2025 sunset, while others, such as centrist Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, want a work requirement added to the provision.
Democrats can’t afford to lose a single vote in the Senate, given their wire-thin margin, and can only afford to lose a few votes in the House, making the budget reconciliation process a tightrope-walking act for leadership.
