The Tampa Bay Rays (89-55) meet the Toronto Blue Jays (81-63) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams

Season series: Rays lead 8-6.

RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA (61 IP, 22 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and 25 relief appearances with the Rays and Milwaukee Brewers.

• Last outing: Win, 12-7, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Sept. 7 at the Boston Red Sox.
• Starter splits: 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA (27 IP, 7 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB.

RHP Jose Berrios is Toronto’s projected starter. Berrios is 11-7 with a 3.52 ERA (166 1/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 28 starts for the Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.

• Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday at the New York Yankees.
• vs. Rays on the current roster (52 PA): 1.99 FIP with a .085 batting average, .148 wOBA, .287 expected slugging percentage, 40.4 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity.

Rays at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Rays +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Blue Jays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-165) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 7, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-150) for a half unit only because this is on the absolute fringe of my price range considering the Rays are the defending AL champions with the best record in the league.

However, Toronto is white-hot lately, winning 12 of its last 13 games by an average score of 8.8-4.3 and stack up nicely against Tampa in the pitching departments. The Blue Jays are the most productive lineup in MLB lately.

Toronto’s lineup has 172 wRC+ over the last two weeks – 35 higher than the next closest team. Its top-ranked .427 wOBA over that span is 54 percentage points higher than the second-place club.

Also, the Blue Jays’ relief unit is third in xFIP since the All-Star Game while the Rays are just 16th. Toronto’s bullpen being top-10 in the second half of the year combined with Berrios being a “top of the rotation” starter makes the pitching matchup a wash.

Lastly, we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market as nearly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on Toronto but a slight majority of the bets placed are with Tampa, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, and sportsbooks have responded by making the favorite more expensive. In sports betting, you’d much rather follow the money rather than the crowd.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+135) for a tiny wager because the chunky payout is high enough to justify laying it with Toronto against a Rays team that’s 27-9 ATS as road underdogs and 45-23 ATS in division games. The Blue Jays are raking right now and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Rasmussen shutting down this Toronto lineup.

That said, this is the “square” side and I’d rather pay more for Toronto’s money line than chase the value of Blue Jays -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-135) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money says Rays-Blue Jays will be a high-scoring affair while the public prefers the Under.

Also, Tampa is 21-14-1 O/U as a road underdog, 38-27-3 O/U against AL East teams and Toronto is 4-0-2 O/U in the last six games.

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