SPORTS BETTING

Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Milwaukee Brewers (89-55) stop by Comerica Park Tuesday to begin a two-game interleague series with the Detroit Tigers (68-76). First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee's projected starter. Peralta is 9-4 with a 2.69 ERA (127 IP, 38 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 24 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Milwaukee's 4-3 win against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday.
  • Road splits: 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA (54 IP, 18 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in 11 starts.

RHP Wily Peralta is on the mound for the Tigers. Peralta is 3-3 with a 3.60 ERA (70 IP, 28 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 across 14 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Detroit's 3-2 loss Sept. 7 at the Pittsburgh Pirates with a stat line of 4 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (67 PA): 2.39 FIP with a .197 batting average, .247 wOBA, .416 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.9 K% and 87.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

Brewers at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:13 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Tigers +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-120) | Tigers +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Brewers 8, Tigers 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Brewers (-205) because they are clearly the right side but it's a little too pricey for me. Although, Milwaukee being this heavy of a favorite makes sense considering it has an advantage in starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting.

There's a ton of pro and public action supporting the Brew Crew, which has caused oddsmakers to move Milwaukee up from a -185 consensus favorite up to the current price.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GIMME the BREWERS -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because of their edges in the most important phases of baseball and Milwaukee has won seven of the last eight games, five of which by at least 3 runs.

Detroit's bullpen ranks towards the bottom of the MLB in most advanced pitching categories while Milwaukee's relief pitching is one of the better units in the league.

On top of that, W. Peralta's numbers against these Brewers are pretty good but his pitching peripherals on the year are terrible. W. Peralta grades in the lower third of baseball in EV, xSLG, K%, expected wOBA and chase rate.

Lastly, Milwaukee has the second-best cover rate as a road favorite at 28-19 ATS and both sides of the betting market are backing the BREWERS -1.5 (-120) as well.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because both lineups have been hitting well lately and five of the past six Brewers-Tigers have gone Over the total (dating back to last season).

Plus we have a " pros vs. joes" scenario in the betting market with the presumed "sharp" money backing the Over. For example, each lineup ranks in the top-10 over the past 14 days in wRC+, wOBA and WAR.

Nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Over but a slight majority of the bets placed are with the Under, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Typically, it's wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it's flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

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