For a season originally expected to end in the postseason, the Chicago Cubs aren’t planning meaningful games this September.
In the weeks since the July 30 trade deadline, the Cubs’ revamped roster has yielded unlikely success stories with highs (a seven-game winning streak) and lows (an 11-game losing streak).
Beyond enjoying the last few weeks of baseball on the North Side until next year, there are four notable numbers worth following during the Cubs’ final 18 games, starting with Tuesday night’s series opener in Philadelphia.
1. Patrick Wisdom’s home run total
Wisdom has been mired in a bit of a slump since he produced back-to-back multihomer games against the White Sox on the South Side.
Since then, Wisdom is 5-for-45 (.111 average) with four walks and 22 strikeouts in his last 13 games. When he has had hits in that stretch, he has hit the ball hard — four have landed for doubles, including as a pinch hitter in the ninth inning of Sunday’s loss to the San Francisco Giants.
Wisdom can be a streaky hitter on both ends of the spectrum; twice this season he has hit seven homers within an eight-start span. While he looks for more consistency as opposing teams get a better grasp on where he can be exposed, such as fastballs up in the zone, Wisdom’s power numbers and ability to hit homers in barrages remain impressive.
Wisdom entered the series in Philadelphia sitting on 25 home runs. That put him one shy of Kris Bryant’s Cubs rookie record set in 2015, when the third baseman was named National League Rookie of the Year. Wisdom leads all NL rookies in the category despite not debuting for the Cubs until May 25.
Although he is 30 years old, Wisdom is an intriguing piece for the 2022 roster. His defense at third base — and ability to handle first base and the corner outfield spots — helps him stay in the lineup when he’s in a slump. While he needs to lower his strikeout rate (40% entering Tuesday), Wisdom has given Cubs fans plenty of entertaining moments to put him on the precipice of a team record.
2. Frank Schwindel’s batting average
When the Cubs have played well post-trade deadline, Schwindel’s performance has been a key to that success. He has made the most of his opportunity with the unenviable task of replacing first baseman Anthony Rizzo. And all he has done since getting called up July 30 is hit.
Schwindel’s .366 batting average in 38 games after his call-up leads the majors in that span, ahead of Oakland Athletics outfielder Starling Marte (.345) and Miami Marlins rookie outfielder Bryan de la Cruz (.338). A little luck is involved with that sample size, reflected in Schwindel’s .383 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Even so, Schwindel has been getting the job done more often than not.
This figure is less about putting up the best batting average in the majors dating to his arrival and more about how Schwindel is building a case to be part of the team next year. The Cubs need to determine whether what they’ve seen from players such as Schwindel is sustainable. If they believe this is not a fluke stretch, Schwindel profiles as someone they could look to platoon at first base or in the designated hitter role if it’s added to the NL.
When Cubs fans look back on the roller-coaster 2021 season, Schwindel and his clutch hits will be part of that reflection.
3. Kyle Hendricks’ innings pitched
At his best, Hendricks can carry the Cubs rotation as he did for a prolonged stretch this year.
From May to the beginning of August, Hendricks posted a 2.89 ERA in 18 starts with the Cubs going 13-5 in those games. The lows have certainly been low, however, including an ugly April that saw him finish the month with a 7.54 ERA in five starts.
Those struggles reemerged in the last month-plus with an 8.16 ERA, including three starts in which he surrendered at least six runs. It’s worth watching how the Cubs handle Hendricks to close out the schedule.
Ahead of his start Wednesday against the Phillies, Hendricks’ 166? innings rank ninth in the majors. If he were to stay on rotation, he would add about 17 innings to his season total. That would represent the third-most innings Hendricks has pitched in his eight-year career and a significant jump from the 81? innings he threw in the shortened 2020 season.
Every team has dealt with the balancing act between increasing pitchers’ workloads coming off the 60-game season while not compromising their long-term health. The Cubs’ three days off over the final 21/2 weeks allow them to build in extra rest for the starters they want to pitch through the end of the season. It would involve keeping some, if not all, starters on a five-game schedule rather than the traditional every-fifth-day start.
With the last 18 games not holding any importance for the postseason, expect to see the Cubs take a big-picture approach to usage.
4. Avoiding a 90-loss season
The Cubs haven’t experienced a season with at least 90 losses since 2013, when they finished 66-96 in Dale Sveum’s second and final year as manager.
Some Cubs fans likely are rooting for them to finish with the most losses as possible to secure a better position in the draft. Their .451 winning percentage entering Tuesday would give them the No. 8 pick in next summer’s draft.
From a competitive standpoint, manager David Ross and his team won’t be satisfied with the record regardless, but the optics of losing 90 or more games isn’t great for a team that was expected to compete for a division title.
To avoid 90-plus losses, the Cubs need to finish 10-8 down the stretch. Ross has lauded his players’ fight and propensity to battle back in games.
The schedule isn’t favorable in helping the Cubs avoid the 90-loss mark. They are tied for the 13th-hardest strength of schedule for their remaining games with opponents owning a combined .497 winning percentage. Thirteen of their final 18 games are against teams with winning records: the Phillies (three games), Milwaukee Brewers (three) and St. Louis Cardinals (seven).
Like the Cubs did to the Cincinnati Reds by winning two of three last week, they can try to spoil the playoff hopes of the Phillies and Cardinals, something veteran outfielder Jason Heyward seems to be enjoying.
“This is the first time in my career being in that position to play spoiler,” Heyward said after his walk-off homer Wednesday to beat the Reds. “It’s a lot of fun playing good baseball, of course, but having some incentive to do it and go out there together, it’s really nice to see good results.”
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