Yu Darvish @ SF (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches.
Welp, this ain’t fun. After a strong outing against the Angels, Yu Darvish notified managers in a hurry that he wasn’t actually back to being an ace by allowing 5 ER in the first en route to a disastrous 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches line against the Giants. Jeeeeeeez.
The question is obvious – How much more of this do we take? – but sadly, the answer isn’t. He gets the Cardinals next and with command like this, even their bats can walk over Darvish. Seriously, his cutter went 0/12 CSW in this one and that’s simply wrong. Not a bad day. Wrong. At the same time, it’s clear what ceiling Darvish brings and it’s not easy seeing a guy like Blake Snell wake up for greatness and not expect Darvish to follow suit before season’s end. It’s on you to decide what’s best for you, I’d lean sticking with it against the Cardinals. My gut says he’ll figure it out, but hey, if you don’t need to risk it, simply don’t. Name value Scmame Schmalue – you gotta do what you have to do to win that championship.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
John Gant @ NYY (ND) – 0.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 12 pitches.
Gant left this one in the first with an abdomen strain. Bummer.
Sandy Alcantara @ WSH (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Sandy. We’ve been through so much this year. Together. And to see you blossom like this, forcing the world to understand what you’re truly capable of, is simply beautiful. We’re talking possible Top 10 SP next year if he keeps tossing like this the next few weeks and let’s be honest, that could very well be what happens. My. MAN.
Collin McHugh @ TOR (ND) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 36 pitches.
McHugh opened for Ryan Yarbrough and he deeply regretted the calm welcome the moment he cracked open the door. WHAT HAVE I UNLEASHED UNTO THIS WORLD?! The Fratty Pirate went 2.1 frames with 7 ER and ten hits, as the monsoon burst through door’s cracks and suffocated McHugh and the Rays – ironic given their natural habitat. Then suddenly, the Blue Jays floated in on rafts with the Pirates of the Caribbean theme playing, chirping to their hearts’ delight. What a terrifying sight they are.
Alek Manoah vs TB (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
Manoah flirted with a no-hitter, featuring the best slider we’ve seen from him in ages. That’s a co-share of the Gallows Pole on the back of 13 slider whiffs and it was glorious. And yes, that changeup is still a poor third option, but whatever, things are clearly fantastic.
Adam Wainwright @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
I’m struggling to imagine what 2022 holds. We can’t honestly draft him as a Top 50 SP…right?
Jake Odorizzi @ TEX (ND) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 32 pitches.
Odorizzi left this one early with a sore foot. Not great, Bob. He was slated to get the Diamondbacks next and given the six-man rotation in Houston, they could simply skip him until he’s fully healed in a week or so…meaning he’d get the Athletics twice to end the year. Can’t say I dig that.
Dominic Leone vs SD (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 18 pitches.
The Giants went bullpen and it was so far-and-away better than starting a guy like Darvish. What a sad world we live in.
Paolo Espino vs MIA (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 91 pitches.
Lovely job Espino. Streaming Record: 85-68. Let’s be honest, I needed this one. He earned a King Cole (lol Marlins) with 10/47 whiffs on breakers and didn’t get a Win only because some guy named Sandy is dope as h*ck. Whatever. He gets Rockie Road on Sunday and I think you want that one too.
Eduardo Rodriguez @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 107 pitches.
Atta boy Erod. The heater was fouled off a ton here (23/55 heaters!), but the cutter and slider were able to force outs and things were fine. Nothing exceptional, but decent enough that a date with the Orioles next time out should work.
Clayton Kershaw vs ARI (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 50 pitches.
He’s back! He didn’t go long enough for the Win, but the ratios generally help + five strikeouts are cool. I wish it were more than 50 pitches, though – he heads to Cincy next and that’s a little too close to danger across ~65 pitches than I’d like. I’m still starting him, but I feel a little weird about it. Just a touch.
Logan Gilbert vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
Hmmmm, the results are obviously great (Gallows Pole with 17 whiffs! Nine strikeouts! Great ratios! AGAINST THE SAWX!), but the slider was a bit underwhelming and this was fastball-city. Sure, it was a great heater, but is it sustainable with a slider that wasn’t quite as good as last time out? Ah, whatever. It’s the Royals + Angels next. He’ll be just fine.
Rich Hill vs STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
Maybe Hill should have thrown more than four of those “sliders” (They are just a lower arm-angle curveball). He returned just 2/35 whiffs on breakers in this one as we’re retiring “The Cardinal Rule” until a moment where St. Louis isn’t in a heated playoff race. As for Hill, the Phillies are next and I’m okay with it. He could recover from this one like he has in the past.
Zac Gallen @ LAD (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 101 pitches.
Blegh. Gallen still doesn’t have his changeup and didn’t even have his best curveball, either (he had it last time). This was Gallen’s first of four tough matchups to end the season and he doesn’t look ready at all for the other three. Let him go.
Luis Gil vs MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
After all kinds of trouble in the first that led to 4 ER, Gil settled down and pitched five strong frames after, boasting a stupid good slider we hadn’t seen from him yet. We’re talking 13/49 slider whiffs and I’m here for it. With Cleveland ahead and a 102 pitch outing behind him, I’m all set for starting him next time out.
Spencer Howard vs HOU (L) – 1.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 51 pitches.
Yiiiiikes. A.J. Alexy came in for the third and didn’t do any better with 6 ER of his own. Let’s just move on from this horrible evening.
Game of the Day
Frankie Montas vs. Jackson Kowar – Montas is rolling and I dunno y’all, I have a feeling about Kowar here, despite just allowing 6 ER to the Orioles.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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What does my man Sandy have to do to get an AGA label back??? He’s been a stud almost all year, especially lately — 63 innings across his last 9 starts with 75 Ks, a 2.71 ERA, and a 0.86 WHIP. Take out the clunker at Coors and those numbers are 59.1 innings in 8 starts (more than 7.1 innings per start!) with 74 Ks (11.2 K/9), a 1.37 ERA, and a 0.72 WHIP. League-winner!
Wainwright had a great night but his WHIP hurt! 1.17 tonight!
In all honesty I wouldn’t draft him really high next season although he has been wonderful this season. This for 2 simple reasons:
1/ He used to struggle for few weeks at the beginning of the season so it’s also possible he’s over-performing right now.
2/ He hasn’t been as great for an entire season since 2014 and as long as he doesn’t get younger, I doubt we should expect him to repeat this season next year.
Towards the “St. Louis Cardinals rule” maybe it’s time to give it up as it doesn’t look accurate at all from some weeks now, no?
Finally, it’s worth noting that Darvish’s ERA was 2.44 before the start of July. Now it’s 4.22. Yes the Giants are a strong team but the game was at SF which is a pitcher friendly park so here it’s just another hint about what we should honestly expect from him. The sticky stuff crackdown has definitely hurt him a lot, especially as he’s a fragile athlete and closer to retire than starting his career now. So overall if we are a bit honest, it just seems that Darvish isn’t an ace any longer. Something which is definitive from now and the rest of the season and his MLB career. We should just take him as a SP3-4. Someone who has the ability to pitch really deep and with a strong K’s upside. But nothing else. Just look at his last 9 starts!!! Only 2 with an ERA under 3.00. Otherwise it’s 3.18, 7.20, 7.50, 16.88, 6.00, 16.88, and tonight 18.00. You were speaking about Snell. But Snell prior his recent injury was flying with an ERA of 4.20. So what’s the conclusion? How can Darvish fly with a worst ERA than Snell? You know how and why! The only thing where Snell is worst than Darvish is the WHIP. K’s? Darvish got 177 Ks in 150 IPs. Snell got 170 Ks in 128.2 IP. In fact Darvish isn’t even really worth the risk. As long as he can explode against anybody, the K’s upside isn’t worth the risk. Overall it’s “just” 1.18 K/IP. It’s not 1.50 or higher. No game changer here. And what about the fact that he’s unlikely to win tons of game cause the Padres are bad! We all expected to be a strong team but it hasn’t been the case this season.