The San Francisco Giants (93-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-68) Monday for the start of their four-game series at Oracle Park with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
Season series: Giants lead 5-4.
RHP Yu Darvish gets the nod for the Padres. Darvish is 8-9 with a 3.95 ERA (146 IP, 64 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 26 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 8-5, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K Wednesday vs. the Los Angeles Angels.
- Darvish is 1-0 with 2 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 19 K over 12 1/3 IP across two starts against the Giants.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (100 PA): 4.07 FIP with a .222 batting average (BA), .296 wOBA, .423 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Dominic Leone is San Francisco’s projected starter. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.48 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 across two starts and 43 relief appearances.
- Last four games (two starts and two bullpen outings): Four no-decisions, but San Francisco won each game, Leone had 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (29 PA): 5.17 FIP with a .269 BA, .332 wOBA, .481 xSLG, 17.2 K% and 85.0 mph EV.
Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:17 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+145) | Giants +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Padres 5, Giants 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES (-110) for a tiny wager because for all of Darvish’s struggles since the pitching substances memo has gone into effect June 21, San Diego is still 16-10 in games Darvish starts. Also, the Giants are having a bullpen day Monday and their relief pitching has been mediocre over the past couple of weeks.
However, both the “pros” and “joes” are backing San Francisco, which has caused oddsmakers to steam the Giants up from a +108 consensus underdog to the current price.
Furthermore, San Francisco has won nine of its last 10 games, are 36 games above-.500 against righty starters and have the second-best home winning percentage in the majors with a 45-23 overall record.
That said, I’ll take a small flyer on the PADRES (-110) since they’ve won both games Darvish started vs. the Giants this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because no way I’d lay it with Padres -1.5 (+145) considering San Diego is 20-28 ATS as a road favorite, San Francisco is 10-7 ATS as a home underdog and these teams are headed in opposite directions at the moment.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-130) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in the last five Padres-Giants meetings, San Diego is 17-9 O/U in Darvish starts and San Diego’s bullpen has been atrocious lately.
The Padres relievers have a 5.40 ERA (ranked 26th), a 2.03 home run per nine-inning rate (ranked 28th) and the third-worst hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.
It’s only a “lean” because both Padres-Giants meetings with Darvish on the mound fell short of the total, but the OVER 7.5 (-130) is my favorite play in this contest.
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