This commentary is by Barrie North, who spent over 10 years in Vermont schools as a math and science teacher. He now works in law enforcement and continues his interest in data and statistics.
A recent email in Front Porch Forum from Burlington City Councilor Jack Hanson stated, “Burlington police incidents are at their lowest in five years.” In his email he stated:
“This data comes from Acting Police Chief Murad’s presentation to the Police Commission on Aug. 24. Overall incidents are at their lowest in five years — they are 16% below 2020, which had the second-lowest number of incidents. Overall, according to BPD data, violent crime and overall crime are both down this year compared to the four years prior.”
When discussing crime data, the number of incidents is not the same as the amount of crime. Councilor Hanson correctly states, “Incidents are at their lowest in five years.” But he concludes with “violent crime and overall crime are both down.” This second statement is not accurate.
Chief Murad was clear that a significant part of the decline in incidents is from a reduction in discretionary police activities.
In 2017, public assists, agency assists, compliance checks (on court orders like restraining orders), traffic stops and community outreach accounted for 9,958 of 32,651 incidents — or 30% of all incidents.
In 2020, there were only 4,779 of these incidents, more than 5,000 fewer. In 2021 thus far, just 1,818.
As staffing has dropped, the Burlington Police Department has been less able to engage in these activities. Acting Chief Murad was also very clear to state that priority-one calls, the most serious and violent, have remained steady during and after the pandemic. They are accounting for an ever-higher percentage of the calls and needing a greater police response.
So, is crime going up or down? Who is right?
The answer, as with most things, is that “it’s complicated.” Since the 1990s, America has enjoyed a steady and dramatic decline in crime. But in recent years the local statewide trend has changed, and most recently the pandemic upended everything.
1. From 2015 through 2019, Vermont saw a reversal in the longtime downward trend in crime. Property crime flattened out and violent crime started increasing. Based on FBI data per 100,000 population, property crimes in 2015 were 1,447 and in 2019 were 1,424. Violent crime doubled from 102 in 2014, to 202 in 2019. Burlington saw a greater increase in violent crime than the state trend. Violent crime in Burlington (per 100,000) increased from 44 to 140 — a 318% increase.
2. Layered on these trends, the pandemic caused dramatic changes. Stay-at-home orders led to some areas of crime decreasing and increased others. National studies showed property and drug crime rates (except for motor vehicle theft) fell significantly in 2020. Homicides, aggravated assaults and gun assaults increased. These trends continued into 2021. Aggravated and gun assault rates are even higher in the first quarter of 2021 than in the same period of 2020.
3. These pandemic trends were not entirely mirrored in Burlington. Rather than decreasing with the national trend, property crime incidents fell only slightly, by 2%, from 2019 to 2020. Drug incidents fell by only a marginal 1%. Violent crimes followed the national trend. For example, aggravated assault and reckless endangerment (e.g., pointing guns) incidents are on track to increase by 26% from 2020 to 2021.
4. Total incidents have dropped, but much of this change is due to less community policing. Of the incidents remaining, fewer and fewer officers are available to respond. In June 2020, the Burlington Police Department had 2,094 incidents and 51 officers on patrol to respond to them (41 calls per officer). In June 2021, the department had 2,032 incidents and 30 officers on patrol to respond (68 calls per officer). This is an increase of 65% call volume per patrol officer. From June 2020 to June 2021, there are 41% fewer Burlington officers to respond to calls.
5. Serious priority-one incidents are steady and are becoming a greater percentage of all incidents. These often take four to eight officers to respond safely and conduct follow-up investigation. Within these, violent priority-one incidents are rising.
Police reform is an important conversation in America, as well as in Burlington. To have this conversation, we need a robust understanding of crime trends, what might be causing them, and how to address them. Reaching that understanding is difficult and requires careful thought and analysis.
Across the country, there seems to be a fundamental challenge in people being able to agree on underlying facts. In Burlington, it seems, we have the same issue. Some people see a 9, others see a 6. Perhaps we need to put our differences and bias aside and have a sincere discussion of what is happening in Burlington. Only then can we have a conversation about how we can address the issues.
Editor’s note: For VTDigger’s analysis of Burlington crime trends, click here.