The first Sunday of the season gave us no shortage of surprises. Aaron Rodgers' Packers got pummeled, Tyrod Taylor's Texans lit up the scoreboard, and the Eagles soared into first place with a trouncing of the Falcons. I would imagine it's going to take more than one week to get people to buy into those narratives, but some situations aren't quite as clear.
That's especially true when you have new coaching staffs like we do in Detroit, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. The temptation in those situations is to put more faith in one week of data. Let's jump right into Week 1 Believe It or Not and talk about whether that's wise.
Mike Williams is a top-25 WR rest of season.
The Case: The Chargers' new coaching staff told us throughout the offseason that Williams would have a bigger role in 2021. Still, it was shocking to see him earn a 25% target share in Week 1. Keenan Allen was the only Charger who saw more targets than Williams and they were the only two Chargers above a 20% target share. This looks like bad news for Austin Ekeler, but at this volume it would be hard for Williams not to be a top-25 receiver.
The Verdict: Believe it.
Of course, Williams has to stay healthy, that's always a concern for him. But as long as he is healthy, I'm going to go with the Chargers' words and Week 1 actions. You shouldn't expect 12 targets every week, but even 20% of the team's targets at 36 pass attempts per game would put Williams on pace for 122 targets over the season. At his career efficiency, that's plenty of volume to get him in the top-25 conversation.
Williams is rostered in just 63% of leagues and should be one of your top priorities on the waiver wire.
Nyheim Hines' role is going to be at least as big as it was last year.
The Case: This developed quickly. After a summer of expectations of Jonathan Taylor as a workhorse running back, we got a flurry of positive Hines news. A new contract, talk from the coaches about getting Hines more work, not less, and finally 15 touches in Week 1, including leading the team in targets. There should be little doubt now that Hines is a major part of the Colts' current and future plans.
The Verdict: Believe it.
Hines finished 2020 as a top-20 back in PPR and he's currently 17th with one game to go in Week 1. While most of the events in this article are surprising because of what changed, this is the opposite. Nothing seems to have changed at all. Hines should be viewed as a very good flex at worst until further notice.
Don't be too concerned about how this affects Taylor yet. The second-year back had 23 touches despite Hines' involvement. This Colts offense will run through the running backs until they can find another pass catcher worthy of the targets.
Both Lions running backs are startable in PPR leagues.
The Case: As someone who drafted a ton of both D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, this was everything I could have asked for and more. Swift and Williams combined for 36 touches, 16 catches, 214 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. That's impressive, but even more encouraging considering the circumstances.
The Lions were facing a very good 49ers defense and they trailed by three scores for a majority of the second half. This was exactly the type of game script we generally have to worry about with running backs, but Swift and Williams thrived. You can start them both in Week 2.
The Verdict: Believe it.
Anthony Lynn's offense has historically given around 32 touches to his running backs. And historically he's had a lot better receivers than he currently does in Detroit. The passing game should continue to run through the running backs and T.J. Hockenson, which should make Swift and Williams game script proof as starters. View Swift as a mid-range No. 2 this week against Green Bay and Williams as a high-end flex.
Fantasy managers who drafted Kyle Pitts should be looking for a Week 2 streamer.
The Case: We told you not to be so sure about about a rookie tight end. Against what we thought should be a pretty bad pass defense, Pitts picked up four catches for 31 yards on eight targets. He didn't have a lot of success getting open and he and Matt Ryan had all kinds of problems connecting. What's more, the offense itself looked like a disaster.
You shouldn't drop Pitts, but you shouldn't start him in Week 2 either.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
No. Nope. Not at all.
The fact that Pitts earned eight targets (and a 24% target share!) in his very first NFL game should be celebrated. The fact that half the people in the poll below want to bench him after Week 1 tells me you should go make a buy-low offer for Pitts right now.
There will be better days ahead for the Falcons offense and Pitts will be a major part of it.
Jameis Winston is a must-start Fantasy quarterback until further notice.
The Case: Winston was every bit as good as he needed to be in Week 1, tossing five touchdown passes (and zero interceptions) in a 38-3 trouncing against the Packers. Don't worry too much about the low passing yardage, the Saints won't have many games where he only has to throw 20 passes. Winston, just like he was his final year in Tampa, is a must-start quarterback in Week 2 and beyond.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
I am concerned that the Saints are going to be way more run-heavy than they were in past years. And you shouldn't count on Winston throwing touchdowns at even a 10% clip, much less the 25% clip he did in Week 1. Winston should be rostered everywhere, and he's not a bad start in Week 2 against Carolina, but we've got a ways to go before he's a must-start. I'd still rather start all the quarterbacks I had in the top 12 in Week 1, including Aaron Rodgers.