Will ‘Dune’ follow in the Oscar footsteps of ‘Lord of the Rings’ or ‘Blade Runner 2049’?

Warner Bros. Pictures

Following its spectacular premiere at the Venice Film Festival, Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” is shaping up to be a strong contender at this year’s Oscars. It is sure to have support across the board in the below-the line categories and could well reap a whopping eight Oscar nominations (cinematography, costume design, film editing, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, sound, visual effects). It’s been nearly two decades since a film with seven or more technical nominations didn’t also make it into Best Picture. That was “The Dark Knight” back in 2009, when only five films could be nominated. This year there are a guaranteed 10 slots.

Almost all of “Dune’s” first reviews have been glowing, with critics calling it “once-in-a- generation” and “the pop culture event we were waiting for.” It has drawn favorable comparisons to Peter Jackson’s iconic “Lord of the Rings” trilogy. And as it’s also the first of an intended two-part adaptation of Frank Herbert’s epic novel, “Dune” could well mirror the trajectory of “The Fellowship of the Ring.” That influential first instalment of Jackson’s trilogy received similar reviews to that of “Dune”: both merit an 8.2/10 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

The similarities don’t stop there. On a surface level, both films are adaptations of classic literary works in which a young male protagonist must come-of-age in the face of foreign lands and faces in order to save the worlds and people they hold dear. Additionally, in a more immediate sense both boast tremendous cinematic spectacle as well as unique world-building from celebrated visionaries.

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“Fellowship” went on to reap a resounding 13 Oscar nominations, nine of which were in the tech categories. Jackson’s first chapter earned an astounding $315.7 million at the domestic box office alone and almost $900 million worldwide. However, with the longevity of this global pandemic and the emergence of the chaotic delta variant, it’s tough to see Villeneuve’s long-time passion project reaching those same numbers.

So, might “Dune” instead follow the path of Villeneuve’s last film, “Blade Runner 2049″? That long-awaited sequel to Ridley Scott’s “Blade Runner” featured Hollywood heavyweights Harrison Ford and Ryan Gosling and was equally well-received. It too also scored an 8.2/10 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes. But, its underwhelming box office takings ($260 million globally against a $190 million budget) caused the film to lose steam.

Even after a nomination for Best Director at the BAFTAs in 2018, Villeneuve was snubbed by the academy as was the film in the top race. “Blade Runner 2049″ earned five Oscar bids below-the-line and won three, included a first win for for cinematographer Roger Deakins after 14 losses plus visual effects. It lost both sound races and production design.

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