The Mets have so much to do this offseason, beginning with who will run baseball operations and who will manage the team moving forward.
Steve Cohen has to decide whether Sandy Alderson returns and, if so, in what capacity. The plan from the outset was for him to be more involved in the business than baseball side, but the Mets never hired a president of baseball operations, then hired general manager (Jared Porter) who lasted a month before being dismissed following revelations he sent inappropriate texts to a female reporter and now acting GM Zack Scott is on leave after pleading not guilty to driving while intoxicated.
So much will be determined by who Cohen picks to run baseball operations (assuming the job will be filled this time). The dominos should start falling from there in deciding whether Alderson and/or Scott are retained, and whether Luis Rojas survives as the manager.
But whether the next baseball chief is high profile such as Billy Beane or Theo Epstein or not, among the key decisions awaiting in constructing the 2022 roster will be determining just what the 2021 seasons of Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith mean. And those decisions can be impacted by whether or not Robinson Cano is brought back and whether the National League adopts a designated hitter.
If you thought the Mets’ offense was going to be among the majors’ best this year (guilty), McNeil and Smith were central to that. McNeil had done nothing but hit since his 2018 arrival. From that season through 2020, his .319 average was the best among 164 players with 1,000 plate appearances (Joey Gallo at .213 was the worst). Smith had just 396 plate appearances in 2019-20, but his 150 OPS-plus was 10th best in the majors for at least that many plate appearances. He had earned the right to play full-time in his age-26 season.
But the exchange — much like Gleyber Torres as a shortstop with the Yankees — was going to be that both needed their offense to be elite to justify below-average defense. But — like Torres — it has just been problematic on both sides of the ball.
Using FanGraphs’ metric and at least 600 innings at the position, McNeill ranked 20th out of 21 second baseman defensively and Smith 16th out of 17 left fielders. And both have had dismal offensive seasons; Smith to such an extent that McNeil has replaced him as the regular left fielder.
They are not the lone culprits in why the Mets are averaging the majors’ fourth fewest runs. But, for example, Francisco Lindor’s 10-year extension does not even start until next year and, thus, the Mets are going to have to hope he is more Carlos Beltran, who revived after a poor first Flushing season, than fellow switch-hitters Roberto Alomar and Carlos Baerga, who did not.
James McCann still has three years remaining on his deal and won’t exactly be easy to deal, and catcher is a hard position to find offensive upgrades. Whoever runs baseball operations (if they are in place) will have until five days after the World Series to determine whether to make the qualifying offer to Michael Conforto — and then he will have 10 days to decide whether to accept.
McNeil and Smith do not have long-term deals nor the option of free agency. They are at the mercy of what the Mets decide to make of 2021 results — Smith going from a .993 OPS in the COVID-shortened 2020 season to .664 this year and McNeil from .836 to .667. Do either have full-time jobs next year? Bench roles? Are they parts of trades?
Cano comes off suspension at the conclusion of this season and the Mets owe him two more years at $40.5 million. He turns 39 next month. Will the Mets just release him? Bring him to spring and see what he has left? Do the Mets feel compelled — after giving up one of their better prospects, Pete Crow Armstrong — to try and re-sign Javier Baez to play second?
Also, much of the offseason work will be on delay until a new collective bargaining agreement is signed. The current one expires Dec. 1. Without a new one, the owners could order a lockout, freezing winter business. But once there is a new CBA, there likely will be a DH in the NL.
If there had been one in 2021, Smith would have played first with Pete Alonso as the DH. Now? Could Cano become the DH — or at least part of a rotation? Do the Mets go get a proven bat for the job (talk about reunions, the Mets signed a teenaged Nelson Cruz in 1998)? Or do they move players in and out of DH with McNeil and/or Smith factoring into that?
So much revolves around what the Mets make of the 2021 seasons of McNeil and Smith.