The Milwaukee Brewers (88-55) and Cleveland Indians (69-71) conclude their three-game series at Progressive Field Sunday. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (5-5, 3.18 ERA) makes his 17th start in his 21st game. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 96 1/3 IP.
- Making his seventh straight start and has recorded a 1.97 ERA across 32 IP through the previous six outings.
- Has benefited from a below-average .258 BABIP while recording a 4.12 FIP and 4.30 xFIP.
Indians RHP Aaron Civale (10-3, 3.25 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 102 1/3 IP.
- Making his second start since June after returning Sept. 7 from the 60-day injured list. Allowed 1 earned run on 3 hits and 1 walk with 6 strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings against the Minnesota Twins his last time out.
- Has also benefits from a below-average BABIP (.251) and an above-average LOB rate (79.9%) while sporting a 4.24 xERA.
Brewers at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $120 to win $100) | Indians +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+130) | Indians +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Indians 3
Money line (ML)
The biggest factor in this selection is simply that Cleveland has been on a major downswing that has resulted in a 3-7 record across its last 10 games and a 14-16 record over its last 30.
Cleveland is 26th in wRC+ and 25th in both wOBA and OPS over the last 14 days and has plated just nine runs through the first six games of its home stand.
There’s not a notable edge for either side in the starting pitching matchup, and the bullpens have been underperforming similarly for both squads over the last two weeks.
Until Cleveland shows its bats are ready to do some damage they’re a bet-against for me, particularly against one of the league’s best road teams.
BACK the BREWERS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This seems to be a good spot for the Brewers to get ahead by a few runs and hang in there given Cleveland’s struggles at the plate.
Milwaukee has one of the league’s best cover rates as a road favorite at 58.7%, and across 46 games it’s a position the Brewers have been in a lot.
Cleveland hasn’t fared particularly well as a home underdog straight up (8-22) or against the spread (14-16), both records ranking among the worst in the majors.
There’s value to be had at plus money with the Brewers winning by 2 or more runs. Consider a partial-unit play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+130).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both squads are very middle of the pack concerning their platoon splits at the plate, both bullpens have underperformed recently but are top-10 units on the season, and I’m simply not prepared to back Cleveland doing enough damage Sunday to push this one over the number.
Cleveland has struggled in run production all season, so even if the bats do get going that doesn’t necessarily mean an outburst is in the cards.
I lean to the UNDER 9.5 (-130).
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