Twenty (Not So) Bold Flyers Predictions For 2021: Grading Flyers Forecast from 2020
The Flyers 2020 season was one that seemed to start with much promise, but quickly turned sideways, if not backwards. By season’s end what unfolded had players, executives and fans asking “what just happened?” In many ways, the answers are still unclear, but the prediction results are in, and it is not pretty. After several solid seasons of good predictions I, like the Flyers, fell off the cliff in 2020. My picks reflected a clear pattern of excessive optimism and it led me to be more wrong than right.
2020 9-11 (45%)
The Obvious
JVR does not top 25 goals: (WIN)
This feels like a win because of a technicality, an unexpected circumstance related to covid and the schedule being shortened. Even so, if projected out to an 82-game season JVR was on pace for 24.89 goals, which is not 25. That said I do need to eat a lot of crow. As someone who disliked the JVR signing, he had a great year. It was the most sustained effort I have seen from him since the 2011 playoffs. It is maddening that when JVR puts it together the team falls apart. Whatever went wrong with the Flyers, JVR was one thing that was absolutely on target and his resurgences can be a key building block for next season.
Hart Break: Hart will get injured and will not be a Vezina finalist: (WIN)
Predicting Flyers’ goalie issues is like predicting the sun will rise. Hart was not great, though he did not have much help. He sustained an MCL injury. Hart saw no action after April 15. It was clear he needed to clear his head as well, potentially brought on by bad defensive zone coverage that lead to continual shelling. The knee is healed, but is Hart’s head? The Flyers need to give him help this season to get him back on track.
Joel Farabee scores at least 15 goals (WIN)
Farabee was a bright spot leading the team with 20 goals in a supporting role. It will be interesting to see if Farabee will establish himself as a top line player once the team breaks camp. Last season Farabee saw bottom six minutes at even strength, which is not something befitting the team’s top goal scorer.
Couts Does not Repeat as the Selke Winner (WIN)
The Flyers defensive zone was a mess once the opposition figured out how they were defending. Couturier gave a noble effort but a system wide break down dashed his chances. He was not even named as a Selke Finalist due to the lack of defensive cohesion around him.
Kevin Hayes is solid again in 2021 but does not top 25 goals (WIN)
Hayes never looked right and suffered a sports hernia at some point during the season. He was not the dominant puck protector that he was in 2019 which could undermine a “solid” designation. But even injured he was able to post 30 points a plus/minus -2 and a corsi of 52%. When compared to the likes of Nolan Patrick, he looks pretty solid, even if not the force he was the previous season.
Samuel Morin Plays at least 5 games for the Flyers (WIN)
Big Sam suited up 20 times, mostly on defense, as the surreal, and ill-fated “Morin at forward” experiment ended early in the season. I still hold hope that with a solid camp, and some good injury luck, that Morin can contribute as a bottom pair and penalty killing defensemen.
Brian Elliott comes back one more time (WIN)
Moose came back once more, and he was not bad, even with a porous defense in front of him. He is now in Tampa and we wish him luck in his chase for the cup!