2021 VMA predictions: Our odds say Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion, Lil Nas X, and BTS will win big

The 2021 MTV Video Music Awards will be handed out on Sunday night, September 12, at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Hundreds of Gold Derby users have been placing their bets on who they think will win in 14 categories, and those combined forecasts have generated our official racetrack odds. So scroll down to see our forecasts listed in order of those odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

Justin Bieber is the most nominated artist with nine bids (including a couple of more recently announced noms for Song of the Summer for his number-one singles “Peaches” and “Stay”), but among the categories we’re predicting he’s an underdog. Instead, we’re betting on Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion to clean up with their provocative collaboration “WAP.” We think the rappers will win Video of the Year (in what looks like an almost too-close-to-call race with Lil Nas X‘s “Montero“), as well as Best Collaboration and Best Hip-Hop.

Even if Cardi and Megan do get the better of him in the top category, we expect Lil Nas X to do pretty well for himself anyway. “Montero” is the odds-on favorite for Video for Good and Best Direction, and the eye-popping video has a couple more nominations in technical categories that he could potentially win. Meanwhile, BTS might continue their dominance at these fan-voted kudos: the Korean boy band is favored to win Song of the Year for “Dynamite,” plus Best Pop and Best K-Pop for “Butter.” To date, the BTS Army fan base has made them almost impossible to beat at these audience-voted awards.

See the rest of our forecasts below. Make sure to make or update your predictions here before awards are handed out this weekend. And join the discussion on this and more with your fellow music fans in our forums.

VIDEO OF THE YEAR
Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion, “WAP” — 6/1
Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” — 6/1
Doja Cat feat. SZA, “Kiss Me More” — 17/2
The Weeknd, “Save Your Tears” — 17/2
DJ Khaled feat. Drake, “Popstar (Starring Justin Bieber)” — 21/2
Ed Sheeran, “Bad Habits” — 11/1

ARTIST OF THE YEAR
Olivia Rodrigo — 6/1
Taylor Swift — 7/1
Justin Bieber — 8/1
Megan Thee Stallion — 9/1
Ariana Grande — 9/1
Doja Cat — 10/1

BEST NEW ARTIST
Olivia Rodrigo — 11/2
The Kid LAROI — 7/1
Saweetie — 8/1
24kGoldn — 19/2
Giveon — 10/1
Polo G — 11/1

SONG OF THE YEAR
BTS, “Dynamite” — 6/1
Olivia Rodrigo, “Drivers License” — 7/1
Cardi B fet. Megan Thee Stallion, “WAP” — 15/2
Dua Lipa, “Levitating” — 9/1
Silk Sonic, “Leave the Door Open” — 10/1
24kGoldn feat. Iann Dior, “Mood” — 11/1

BEST COLLABORATION
Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion, “WAP” — 11/2
Doja Cat feat. SZA, “Kiss Me More” — 13/2
Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon, “Peaches” — 8/1
Miley Cyrus feat. Dua Lipa, “Prisoner” — 9/1
24kGoldn feat. Iann Dior, “Mood” — 10/1
Drake feat. Lil Durk, “Laugh Now Cry Later” — 11/1

BEST HIP-HOP
Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion, “WAP” — 11/2
Drake feat. Lil Durk, “Laugh Now Cry Later” — 7/1
Polo G, “Rapstar” — 8/1
Travis Scott feat. Young Thug and M.I.A., “Franchise” — 9/1
Lil Baby feat. Megan Thee Stallion, “On Me (Remix)” — 10/1
Moneybagg Yo, “Said Sum” — 23/2

BEST LATIN
Bad Bunny and Jhay Cortez, “Dakiti” — 6/1
Billie Eilish and Rosalia, “Lo Vas a Olvidar” — 7/1
J Balvin, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny, and Tainy, “Un Dia (One Day)” — 15/2
Maluma, “Hawai” — 9/1
Black Eyed Peas and Shakira, “Girl Like Me” — 10/1
Karol G, “Bichota” — 11/1

BEST POP
BTS, “Butter” — 7/1
Olivia Rodrigo, “Good 4 U” — 17/2
Harry Styles, “Treat People with Kindness” — 23/2
Taylor Swift, “Willow” — 23/2
Ariana Grande, “Positions” — 13/1
Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon, “Peaches” — 13/1
Billie Eilish, “Therefore I Am” — 14/1
Shawn Mendes, “Wonder” — 15/1

BEST ROCK
Foo Fighters, “Shame Shame” — 11/2
The Killers, “My Own Soul’s Warning” — 7/1
Kings of Leon, “The Bandit” — 17/2
Evanescence, “Use My Voice” — 9/1
John Mayer, “Last Train Home” — 10/1
Lenny Kravitz, “Raise Vibration” — 21/2

BEST ALTERNATIVE
Machine Gun Kelly feat. Blackbear, “My Ex’s Best Friend” — 13/2
Imagine Dragons, “Follow you” — 13/2
Twenty One Pilots, “Shy Away” — 15/2
Willow feat. Travis Barker, “Transparent Soul” — 8/1
Glass Animals, “Heat Waves” — 10/1
Bleachers, “Stop Making This Hurt” — 11/1

BEST R&B
Silk Sonic, “Leave the Door Open” — 6/1
Beyonce, “Brown Skin Girl” — 13/2
SZA, “Good Days” — 15/2
H.E.R. feat. Chris Brown, “Come Through” — 19/2
Giveon, “Heartbreak Anniversary” — 10/1
Chris Brown and Young Thug, “Go Crazy” — 23/2

BEST K-POP
BTS, “Butter” — 11/2
Blackpink and Selena Gomez, “Ice Cream” — 13/2
Monsta X, “Gambler” — 8/1
Seventeen, “Ready to Love” — 19/2
Twice, “Alcohol-Free” — 10/1
(G)I-DLE, “Dumdi Dumdi” — 23/2

VIDEO FOR GOOD
Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” — 6/1
H.E.R., “Fight for You” — 13/2
Billie Eilish, “Your Power” — 15/2
Demi Lovato, “Dancing with the Devil” — 17/2
Kane Brown, “Worldwide Beautiful” — 21/2
Pharrell Williams feat. Jay-Z, “Entrepreneur” — 23/2

BEST DIRECTION
Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” — 6/1
Taylor Swift, “Willow” — 13/2
Billie Eilish, “Your Power” — 15/2
DJ Khaled feat. Drake, “Popstar (Starring Justin Bieber)” — 19/2
Travis Scott feat. Young Thug and M.I.A., “Franchise” — 21/2
Tyler the Creator, “Lumberjack” — 11/1

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until the weekend of the awards. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.