The Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox will begin a three-game series on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-White Sox prediction and pick.
This matchup between two of the best offensive teams in baseball should be one of the most entertaining of the season. It also comes at a hugely important time for the Red Sox, who are currently barely clinging to a Wild Card spot. A couple of losses in this series could mean that Boston is back on the outside looking in.
Chicago doesn't share those concerns, as an AL Central victory is essentially a certainty. Games against a potential playoff opponent are always valuable, though, so expect the White Sox to play their best baseball despite their cushion in the division.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Friday's game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-White Sox Odds
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Boston Red Sox ML (+140)
Chicago White Sox ML (-152)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-105)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-115)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston's fantastic offense gives them the chance to hang around in any matchup. The Red Sox rank inside the top three in MLB in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS while ranking sixth in OBP. No one wants to face this lineup, including White Sox starter Carlos Rodon, who has been battling shoulder fatigue of late.
Rodon has been much better than expected this season, but Boston still has a couple of statistical advantages in this matchup. The Red Sox are slightly more comfortable against left-handed pitching, earning a higher batting average and OBP against lefties than they do against righties. Boston's hitters are also on an insane hot streak right now, proven by the fact that they're hitting .296 as a team in the month of September.
Starting pitcher Tanner Houck will take the mound for Friday's start. The righty has been surprisingly good, earning himself a 3.26 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP on the year. Those numbers are far better than average, and they indicate that Houck should be able to at least hold his own against this tough White Sox lineup. Helping Houck is the fact that Chicago is slightly worse offensively when they face right-handed pitching. As a team, the White Sox earn a lower batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage against righties.
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Surprisingly, Chicago will look to lean on its pitching in this matchup. Rodon has been absolutely fantastic this season, posting a 2.41 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP on the year. Rodon's numbers at home get even better, with his WHIP falling to 0.88 and his opponent's batting average dropping from .207 anywhere else to .179 at Guaranteed Rate Field. His presence on the mound is enough reason to think that Chicago will win this game.
Rodon happens to have one of MLB's best offenses behind him. The White Sox have similar numbers to the Red Sox across the board, including their recent hot streak. Chicago's batters own a combined .279 average in September, and while that hasn't always translated to runs, it will eventually. The White Sox are also comfortable facing Houck, as they've hit against him once already. Houck managed to last four innings while getting tagged for three runs.
Final Red Sox-White Sox Prediction & Pick
This doesn't look like a terrible spot to pick an upset, but the White Sox are actually the better pick here. Betting against Rodon is always a frustrating endeavor, especially when Boston's pitcher is Tanner Houck. Take the White Sox to defend their home turf in this series opener.
FINAL PICK: Chicago White Sox ML (-152)
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