The Chicago White Sox (80-60) host the Boston Red Sox (80-62) Friday for the opener of a three-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
RHP Tanner Houck gets the nod for the White Sox. Houck is 0-3 with a 3.26 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 10 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in Boston’s 4-3 win over the Cleveland Indians Saturday with a stat line of 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
- Houck lost April 18 to the White Sox 3-2 with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster (10 PA): .200 batting average (BA), .212 wOBA, .552 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 10.0 K% and 81.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Carlos Rodon is Chicago’s projected starter. Rodon is 11-5 with a 2.41 ERA (119 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 21 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-3, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K against the Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 1.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: .377 BA, .506 wOBA, .581 xSLG, 15.5 K% and 91.4 mph EV in 58 PA.
Red Sox at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | White Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | White Sox -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
White Sox 6, Red Sox 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the WHITE SOX (-160) for a half unit only because Chicago outright is on the fringe of my price range in this spot and I wouldn’t hate putting it into a parlay with another favorite for a plus-money payout.
The White Sox are 12 games above-.500 against righty starters and 22 games above-.500 at home, while the Red Sox are just 4-13 overall as road underdogs against a left-handed starter and just 36-33 on the road.
I’m willing to say the hitting matchup is a wash even though I think the White Sox have more talent in their lineup, but Chicago has a major edge in the pitching department.
Rodon lingered in the AL Cy Young race this year and Tipico has Rodon priced with the fifth-best odds (+1500) to win the award. Also, Chicago’s bullpen has been amazing recently while Boston’s has been mediocre. White Sox relievers rank atop the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% over the last 30 days, whereas the Red Sox is below-average in each metric
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the White Sox -1.5 (+125) is below my buy price of +150 in this spot because the Red Sox have covered two-thirds of their contests as road underdogs (28-14 ATS).
Another reason why I don’t like Chicago’s value here is that both teams have been equally mediocre over the past 10 and 30 games.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-112) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the White Sox’s money line than the total in this game.
However, each team has played more to the Under in their respective location-based splits, Chicago is 7-13-1 O/U in Rodon’s 21 starts and Boston is 3-7 O/U in games Houck starts.
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