The New York Yankees (78-62) and New York Mets (70-71) swing into a three-game Subway Series Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Jordan Montgomery is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 5-5 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 through 135 IP over 25 starts.
- Owns a second-half ERA of 1.93.
- Has clocked a 3.39 ERA at home over the last three years but a more pedestrian 4.44 mark on the road.
- Has held current Mets bats to a .651 aggregate OPS and .089 isolated power.
RHP Tylor Megill is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. Megill is 2-4 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 over 70 2/3 IP across 14 starts.
- Has a 7.98 ERA and coughed up 7 home runs across 14 2/3 IP over his last three starts.
Yankees at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Mets 5, Yankees 4
Money line (ML)
The Yankees head across town to Queens after being swept by the Toronto Blue Jays in a four-game set at Yankee Stadium. The Yanks have lost six straight and are just 2-10 with a .621 OPS since winning 13 consecutive games from Aug. 14-27.
The Mets are coming off a 4-4 road trip against the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins and are back at Citi Field where they have won four straight. The Mets were first place in the NL East until Aug. 7 but they have fallen off with a 22-31 second half.
The Mets outscored the Yankees 20-12 while taking two of three games from them at Yankee Stadium July 3-4.
The starter matchup adds risk to the Mets side for Friday’s series opener. So does the bullpen comparison, although the Yankee relief corps has of late been an injury-riddled patchwork job. The risk is rewarded with the tag.
BACK THE METS (+102).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the extra juice drowning out the prices on this run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Peg both offenses as being undervalued. On a low-humidity night with a pitcher’s breeze, the total feels a click too low.
TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-112).
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