SPORTS BETTING

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Andrew Reid
Sportsbook Wire

The San Diego Padres (74-65) and Los Angeles Dodgers (88-53) open a three-game set Friday. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 10:10 p.m ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgersodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Padres RHP Joe Musgrove (10-8, 2.87 ERA) makes his 27th start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 153 2/3 IP.

  • Is 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA across nine second-half starts, including allowing just 3 earned runs over his last 20 1/3 innings.
  • Faced the Dodgers twice this season. Allowed 1 earned run over 3 innings April 25 in Los Angeles and allowed 1 earned run over 6 innings June 23 in San Diego.

Dodgers LHP Jose Urias (16-3, 3.11 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 156 1/3 IP.

  • Has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since June 16; is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA over 44 1/3 innings across eight starts in that span.
  • Faced the Padres in San Diego twice this season. Allowed 6 earned runs over 4 innings June 21 and pitched 5 scoreless innings Aug. 24

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-170) | Dodgers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Dodgers 5, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

San Diego and L.A. meet for the 14th time Friday with the Padres holding a 7-6 lead in the season series, but the last month and a bit tell the story of two teams heading in starkly different directions.

San Diego is a sub-.500 team since the beginning of August, with a 14-18 record that includes being swept at home by L.A. in a three-game series. Los Angeles posted a 25-10 record over that time span.

While these two clubs still occupy the two NL Wild Card spots the Dodgers have a 13 game lead over the Padres who are just 1 game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the last playoff position.

The Padres roughed up Urias in a previous start and handed the southpaw one of his three losses this season but they've generally done poorly against left-handed pitching. San Diego is 24th in OPS and wOBA and 25th in wRC+ against lefties.

Back LOS ANGELES (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The odds here don't quite justify the 2 runs you'd need to pick up a Los Angeles cover. L.A. is coming off two losses in a row for the first time since late July, and its bullpen was used for 8 of the 16 innings Wednesday and Thursday.

Concerns about road weariness as the Dodgers return home from a seven-game trek, a bullpen that shouldered a heavy load and Musgrove holding them in check through two previous starts are enough to make me leery of a 2-run cushion at only +125.

If this gets up to a +150 range I'd be considering it as a value-based play. In the meantime, PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Although I anticipate good starting pitching Friday this is a spot that both bullpens might give up some action. These clubs' back ends are both bottom-10 units in xFIP and SIERA over the last two weeks.

This number is quite low. Back the OVER 7.5 (-125) and I'd even get behind the Over 8.0 if it moved there. However, if it reaches 8.5 as the day goes on it's a pass from me.

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