Mastrodonato: Red Sox still wobbling between contender and pretender

Time for a temperature check on the local nine.

They spent their off-day a half-game up on the Yankees for the first American League Wild Card spot, but it’s always changing. Entering Thursday, the Blue Jays were just two games behind the Sox, the Mariners three games behind and the A’s 3 1/2 games behind.

The next six games will determine a lot.

The Sox are in Chicago for three against the first-place White Sox, who have a healthy 11-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central and no chance at home-field advantage, so there’s no real reason for Tony La Russa to keep his foot on the gas in the final few weeks other than to make sure his team is sharp come playoff time.

Then comes three games against the Mariners, who are playing their best baseball of the season and are always tough to beat in Seattle.

If the Sox can survive this road trip with their playoff spot intact, it’ll be mostly smooth sailing from there.

They’ve got six games left against the historically-bad Orioles, two against the fumbling Mets, three against the depleted Nationals and three against the Yankees that could determine who hosts the Wild Card Game, assuming both hang onto their playoff spots.

While the Yankees are falling apart, having lost five in a row and eight of their last 10, the Red Sox are staying above water.

They aren’t playing their best team baseball of the season, but are getting enough via individual performances.

Hunter Renfroe and Nathan Eovaldi single-handedly won the game for the Sox on Wednesday.

It’s a weird team right now, with a few players trending downward, a few trending upward and a lot of them still on the COVID-19 related injury list.

Alex Cora, as usual, did a phenomenal job managing the roster while it had a remarkable 11 players on the COVID list. He won games with several career minor leaguers on the active roster.

Soon, it’ll be time for the main contributors to step up.

Renfroe has never played better. Kyle Schwarber has been as consistent a hitter as anyone since he came into the lineup. And Bobby Dalbec is statistically the best hitter in baseball since Aug. 11 with a 1.275 OPS in that span.

But J.D. Martinez is slumping, with a .714 OPS in 22 games since he started playing the outfield regularly, Rafael Devers has a .702 OPS in his last 22 games and the Sox are getting desperate for Xander Bogaerts to return to the middle of the order.

With Kiké Hernandez back, the Sox don’t plan on playing Dalbec against most right-handed pitchers, but keeping him in the lineup seems like a priority right now.

They’ve been dabbling with Devers at second base, but would they ever consider starting him there?

Dalbec has been a much better defender at third base than he has at first, and Schwarber has looked fine at first base. It’d be the easiest way to have the optimal offensive alignment without sacrificing on the defensive end. And it’s not like Devers has played well at third base this season. He’s mostly carried over his inconsistent defense from a year ago.

Moving him to second is intriguing, though it’d be hard to ask him to do that over the next six games against playoff-caliber teams. Perhaps down the stretch if the Sox seal a playoff spot they can tinker with it.

On the pitching side, it seems like Cora is going back to using his starters on regular rest.

The question is whether or not he’d consider skipping the fifth spot in the rotation, where Nick Pivetta has struggled of late, over the final three weeks. The Sox have four off-days in 12 days. That would give an extra start to Chris Sale, Eovaldi, Tanner Houck and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Not every team has four off-days in the final three weeks of the season. If the Sox can’t capitalize to set up their rotation so that they’re well-rested for a Wild Card Game, it’ll be a substantial failure, especially considering the final six games come against the O’s and Nationals.

The bullpen has been a nightmare, but Cora is making it work.

The inconsistent Adam Ottavino lost the save opportunity to Hansel Robles on Wednesday night. Matt Barnes is still on the COVID list. Garrett Richards is looking like the second-best reliever this team has right now, for better or worse, with Garrett Whitlock continuing his dominant rookie year.

Adding Pivetta to the ‘pen when he gets back from the COVID list might be worth a shot, since he’ll likely be in a bullpen role in the postseason anyways.

On most teams, it’s easy to tell after 142 games whether or not it’s a legit playoff contender or just a pretender.

With 20 games left, the Red Sox still haven’t made that clear.